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FXUS64 KSJT 280858 AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 258 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Quiet weather through the next 24 hours with warming temperatures. Zonal flow aloft will transition to low amplitude ridging over the area today and tonight. In the low levels, the surface high that was over Texas yesterday will move eastward into the Mississippi River valley area by this evening. Winds will start light and variable, but increase to 5 to 10 mph out of the south/southwest as west central Texas falls between surface ridging to our east, and lee troughing in eastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico. Otherwise, we'll continue to see mid and upper level clouds move across the area, with some low clouds possibly approaching our southern counties early Wednesday morning as low level moisture begins to increase. Look for highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s today, and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 119 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

We'll see a gradual warming trend though Thursday. An upper level ridge will be moving over the area during this time period. This along with warm air advection from southerly flow, will allow our temperatures to warm to near normal by Wednesday and above normal by Thursday (highs near 70). We could potentially see some showers Wednesday night and into Thursday, as a result of the warm, moist advection from the Gulf. However, moisture will be much higher to our east, so the best rain chances for our area will be in our east/southeastern counties.

A frontal system is expected Thursday into Friday. A shortwave trough will approach from the west on Thursday. A surface low will develop ahead of the trough, moving eastward to the north of our area on Thursday. The positioning of the low, precipitation totals/locations, and the timing of the dry line and front associated with the low differ slightly between models. But there is a general agreement that we'll see a cold front late Thursday into early Friday and temperatures will drop slightly, going back below normal for Friday. The GFS tends to keep the higher rainfall accumulations restricted to our eastern counties, whereas the ECMWF has rain a bit more spread out across our area. Either way, rainfall totals don't look great with this event. The colder temperatures will be short lived as the winds turn back south for Saturday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

VFR conditions will remain in place for the remainder of the TAF period. Expect light winds and gradually clearing skies through tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 61 39 62 52 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 60 39 61 51 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 61 40 58 50 / 0 0 10 10 Brownwood 59 37 60 50 / 0 0 0 20 Sweetwater 59 41 61 51 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 57 40 56 48 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 59 40 58 51 / 0 0 10 20

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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San Angelo, TX,