Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Marion, NY
June 17, 2024 3:33 AM EDT (07:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:15 AM Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 4:16 PM Moonset 2:07 AM |
ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.
Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 312 Am Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure remains centered off the mid atlantic coast through Thursday before slowly weakening and drifting east. A surface trough lingers over the area for the end of the week through the first half of the weekend.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 170523 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 123 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains centered off the mid Atlantic coast through Thursday, and weakens Friday through Saturday.
Meanwhile, weak disturbances pass near or just to the north of the area Friday and Saturday. A stronger wave of low pressure approaches Sunday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/
Adjusted cloud coverage up for the next few hours to account for widespread cirrus with a decreasing trend overnight. Despite this, still had enough radiational cooling to make for relatively lower temperatures for min temperatures than previously forecast. Lowered min temperatures a few degrees overall across the region. Lows forecast range from lower 50s within parts of the Pine Barrens of Long Island and some interior areas to lower 60s across NYC and urban NE NJ.
High pressure centered just off the southern New England coast will slowly drift east tonight. Low level moisture gradually increases tonight with a SE-S flow advecting higher dew points into the area. Not so sure there's going to be low stratus development to the extent that some guidance, particularly NAM, is showing overnight with this being the first night of southerly flow with an antecedent dry airmass. Will include more clouds cover for parts of the interior, but not to the extent of NAM. Could be some patchy fog too, but will leave it out for now.
SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Deep-layered ridging for Monday keeps us rain-free, but it will feel more muggy than the past couple of days. It'll be warmer as well as temps through the boundary layer rise. Expecting highs in the low 80s for a good portion of LI and CT, with middle and upper 80s elsewhere.
A strong ridge will then be in place Tuesday through Wednesday with a 500mb high centered near or over us and the surface high offshore to our east. This should be enough to keep any shower activity out of the area during this period.
Noted trends in the global models from past 48 hours are that forecast 850mb temperatures/dewpoints for both Tuesday and Wednesday have been lowering. This brings some uncertainty regarding how much surface dewpoints will mix out with daytime heating and resulting heat indices. Granted not everywhere will be mixing up to 850mb, particularly for coastal areas where a more southerly flow arrives off upper 60s water temperatures. But even for the inland areas that remain with a SW flow, thinking that mixing to this level can occur.
Additionally, without a cold front or significant trough nearby and thus a lack of moisture convergence, surface dewpoints can mix out a few degrees from the morning dewpoints on a SW flow both days. Would be more confident in the higher NBM surface dewpoints (which have been trending lower as well) if 850mb dewpoints were progged more in the order of 16-18C instead of the currently progged 10-14C. Have therefore blended the NBM with some of the lower global guidance MOS numbers.
Regarding ambient temperatures, 850mb temps are progged at 17-19C for both Tuesday and Wednesday. With the flow off the cool waters, expecting highs mostly 85-90 for LI and coastal CT and around 90 for NYC both days. Otherwise, for inland areas, highs mostly in the mid 90s. It appears that the NBM percentiles may be skewed too warm due to bias correction methods, so the deterministic NBM, which has been generally closer to lower end of the distribution for the past several weeks, was followed more closely, and is more in line with the anticipated temperatures aloft and low level winds.
After collaboration with the surrounding offices, have decided to go with heat advisories where there was high enough confidence in reaching criteria for the two days. This includes all of our NJ zones and most of our NY zones. Heat indices here expected mostly in the 95-100 range.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
**Key Points**
* A long duration heat wave is expected through Saturday, possibly into Sunday.
* The combination of the heat and humidity will produce heat index values of 95 to potentially around 103 during this time.
* Not much relief at night as overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the mid 70s, with dew points remaining in the 60s.
A deep layered, and strong upper ridge along the east coast begins to weaken and flatten across the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday night as surface high pressure remains anchored off the mid Atlantic coast. The flow will be more zonal across the northeast Thursday into the upcoming weekend allowing weak disturbances in the mid and upper levels to track near or just north of the region Friday and Saturday. A stronger wave approaches for Sunday. While the heat and humidity are expected to continue possibly into the upcoming weekend, the peak is likely Thursday into Friday. With the anomalous strength of the ridge there is a chance that temperatures across the interior may even peak near 100 degrees Thursday and Friday. . Also, there will not be much relief at night as overnight lows drop into the mid 60s and lower to mid 70s, especially Thursday night and Friday night. Also, humidity levels will remain elevated with dew points mostly in the lower to mid 60s. No record high temperatures are expected to be set during this time, however with overnight temperatures remaining elevated a few locations may set record high minimum temperatures Thursday, and possibly Saturday. The peak of the heat wave and high heat indices will be occurring as the transition from spring to summer occurs, with the solstice Thursday, June 20th at 446 PM EDT. There is a chance that temperatures do not reach the forecast highs Friday with the possibility of increased cloud cover, and the chance of thunderstorms, especially across the northern tier. And desi is now showing a 90% chance of heat indices reaching 95 or higher only across portions of northeastern New Jersey. And then with additional thunderstorms Saturday desi is showing that northeastern New Jersey will be more marginal for reaching advisory criteria. So for now advisory headlines may be extended into Thursday for just about all of the forecast area, and then possibly for a portion of the area Friday and Saturday.
With the intense heat and high humidity it is important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Offshore high pressure remains in control through the TAF period.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected but there is a chance for some MVFR/IFR stratus tonight into early Monday, mainly between 06Z and 12Z. This is indicated by a TEMPO group in the TAF.
Confidence is low to moderate on the stratus occurrence.
Winds will become more southerly tonight and remain southerly through the rest of the TAF period. Wind speeds tonight will be near 5-10 kt and then increase Monday to 10-15 kt range with some slightly higher wind speeds for NYC terminals. Wind gusts Monday afternoon into early Monday evening are expected to be near 20-25 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of stratus, if it occurs, could be a few hours off from TAF. Confidence is low to moderate.
Timing of gusts on Monday could be a few hours off from TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night through Friday: Mainly VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions are expected on all waters through the end of the week.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A moderate risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches continues through Tuesday with a southerly flow, and southeast to south swells.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 123 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains centered off the mid Atlantic coast through Thursday, and weakens Friday through Saturday.
Meanwhile, weak disturbances pass near or just to the north of the area Friday and Saturday. A stronger wave of low pressure approaches Sunday.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/
Adjusted cloud coverage up for the next few hours to account for widespread cirrus with a decreasing trend overnight. Despite this, still had enough radiational cooling to make for relatively lower temperatures for min temperatures than previously forecast. Lowered min temperatures a few degrees overall across the region. Lows forecast range from lower 50s within parts of the Pine Barrens of Long Island and some interior areas to lower 60s across NYC and urban NE NJ.
High pressure centered just off the southern New England coast will slowly drift east tonight. Low level moisture gradually increases tonight with a SE-S flow advecting higher dew points into the area. Not so sure there's going to be low stratus development to the extent that some guidance, particularly NAM, is showing overnight with this being the first night of southerly flow with an antecedent dry airmass. Will include more clouds cover for parts of the interior, but not to the extent of NAM. Could be some patchy fog too, but will leave it out for now.
SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Deep-layered ridging for Monday keeps us rain-free, but it will feel more muggy than the past couple of days. It'll be warmer as well as temps through the boundary layer rise. Expecting highs in the low 80s for a good portion of LI and CT, with middle and upper 80s elsewhere.
A strong ridge will then be in place Tuesday through Wednesday with a 500mb high centered near or over us and the surface high offshore to our east. This should be enough to keep any shower activity out of the area during this period.
Noted trends in the global models from past 48 hours are that forecast 850mb temperatures/dewpoints for both Tuesday and Wednesday have been lowering. This brings some uncertainty regarding how much surface dewpoints will mix out with daytime heating and resulting heat indices. Granted not everywhere will be mixing up to 850mb, particularly for coastal areas where a more southerly flow arrives off upper 60s water temperatures. But even for the inland areas that remain with a SW flow, thinking that mixing to this level can occur.
Additionally, without a cold front or significant trough nearby and thus a lack of moisture convergence, surface dewpoints can mix out a few degrees from the morning dewpoints on a SW flow both days. Would be more confident in the higher NBM surface dewpoints (which have been trending lower as well) if 850mb dewpoints were progged more in the order of 16-18C instead of the currently progged 10-14C. Have therefore blended the NBM with some of the lower global guidance MOS numbers.
Regarding ambient temperatures, 850mb temps are progged at 17-19C for both Tuesday and Wednesday. With the flow off the cool waters, expecting highs mostly 85-90 for LI and coastal CT and around 90 for NYC both days. Otherwise, for inland areas, highs mostly in the mid 90s. It appears that the NBM percentiles may be skewed too warm due to bias correction methods, so the deterministic NBM, which has been generally closer to lower end of the distribution for the past several weeks, was followed more closely, and is more in line with the anticipated temperatures aloft and low level winds.
After collaboration with the surrounding offices, have decided to go with heat advisories where there was high enough confidence in reaching criteria for the two days. This includes all of our NJ zones and most of our NY zones. Heat indices here expected mostly in the 95-100 range.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
**Key Points**
* A long duration heat wave is expected through Saturday, possibly into Sunday.
* The combination of the heat and humidity will produce heat index values of 95 to potentially around 103 during this time.
* Not much relief at night as overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the mid 70s, with dew points remaining in the 60s.
A deep layered, and strong upper ridge along the east coast begins to weaken and flatten across the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday night as surface high pressure remains anchored off the mid Atlantic coast. The flow will be more zonal across the northeast Thursday into the upcoming weekend allowing weak disturbances in the mid and upper levels to track near or just north of the region Friday and Saturday. A stronger wave approaches for Sunday. While the heat and humidity are expected to continue possibly into the upcoming weekend, the peak is likely Thursday into Friday. With the anomalous strength of the ridge there is a chance that temperatures across the interior may even peak near 100 degrees Thursday and Friday. . Also, there will not be much relief at night as overnight lows drop into the mid 60s and lower to mid 70s, especially Thursday night and Friday night. Also, humidity levels will remain elevated with dew points mostly in the lower to mid 60s. No record high temperatures are expected to be set during this time, however with overnight temperatures remaining elevated a few locations may set record high minimum temperatures Thursday, and possibly Saturday. The peak of the heat wave and high heat indices will be occurring as the transition from spring to summer occurs, with the solstice Thursday, June 20th at 446 PM EDT. There is a chance that temperatures do not reach the forecast highs Friday with the possibility of increased cloud cover, and the chance of thunderstorms, especially across the northern tier. And desi is now showing a 90% chance of heat indices reaching 95 or higher only across portions of northeastern New Jersey. And then with additional thunderstorms Saturday desi is showing that northeastern New Jersey will be more marginal for reaching advisory criteria. So for now advisory headlines may be extended into Thursday for just about all of the forecast area, and then possibly for a portion of the area Friday and Saturday.
With the intense heat and high humidity it is important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Offshore high pressure remains in control through the TAF period.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected but there is a chance for some MVFR/IFR stratus tonight into early Monday, mainly between 06Z and 12Z. This is indicated by a TEMPO group in the TAF.
Confidence is low to moderate on the stratus occurrence.
Winds will become more southerly tonight and remain southerly through the rest of the TAF period. Wind speeds tonight will be near 5-10 kt and then increase Monday to 10-15 kt range with some slightly higher wind speeds for NYC terminals. Wind gusts Monday afternoon into early Monday evening are expected to be near 20-25 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of stratus, if it occurs, could be a few hours off from TAF. Confidence is low to moderate.
Timing of gusts on Monday could be a few hours off from TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night through Friday: Mainly VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions are expected on all waters through the end of the week.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A moderate risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches continues through Tuesday with a southerly flow, and southeast to south swells.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NLHC3 | 18 mi | 46 min | 59°F | 80°F | 30.23 | |||
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 21 mi | 46 min | 62°F | 64°F | 30.18 | |||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 32 mi | 46 min | SSE 2.9G | 62°F | 66°F | 30.23 | ||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 46 mi | 46 min | 0G | 63°F | 62°F | 30.18 |
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NEW Forecast page for KSNC
Wind History graph: SNC
(wind in knots)Orient
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:37 AM EDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:07 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:16 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT 2.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:33 PM EDT 0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:16 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT 2.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:37 AM EDT 0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:07 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:16 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:20 AM EDT 2.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:33 PM EDT 0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:16 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT 2.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Orient, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.6 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.7 |
| 6 am |
| 2 |
| 7 am |
| 2.1 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Tide / Current for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
EDIT HIDE HelpThe Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:06 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 03:19 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT 2.02 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:50 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:11 PM EDT -2.41 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:15 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:15 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:01 PM EDT 2.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 09:04 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:06 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 03:19 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:14 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT 2.02 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:50 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:11 PM EDT -2.41 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:15 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:15 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:01 PM EDT 2.38 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 09:04 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31), knots
| 12 am |
| -2.9 |
| 1 am |
| -2.4 |
| 2 am |
| -1.5 |
| 3 am |
| -0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| -0.2 |
| 10 am |
| -1.2 |
| 11 am |
| -2 |
| 12 pm |
| -2.4 |
| 1 pm |
| -2.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 2 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -2.2 |
Upton, NY,
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