Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Marion, NY
June 26, 2024 5:47 AM EDT (09:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:17 AM Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 11:59 PM Moonset 10:14 AM |
ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.
Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 410 Am Edt Wed Jun 26 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front moves across the waters this morning. A cold front then approaches from the west, moving across late tonight into early Thursday. High pressure builds in for Thursday night and moves over the region late in the day Friday. A warm front lifts north of the area Saturday. A cold front then moves through on Sunday with high pressure building in for the beginning of next week.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 260915 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 515 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front moves northeast of the area this morning. A cold front then approaches from the west, moving across late tonight into early Thursday. High pressure builds in for Thursday night and moves over the region late in the day Friday. A warm front lifts north of the area Saturday. A cold front then moves through on Sunday with high pressure building in for the beginning of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
An upper level trough moves out of the northern plains this moving and amplifies through the Great Lakes region and moves toward the east coast late in the day. The upper trough then moves off the northeast and mid Atlantic coast late tonight.
Meanwhile a warm front across upstate New York into eastern Pennsylvania will move across the region this morning. The area then become warm sectored as the surface low moves well to the north of the region. A southwesterly flow brings in warmer and more humid air into the region. While the area will be warm and humid heat indices are expected to peak into the lower and mid 90s, and heat advisories are not expected to be needed. A few of the CAMs are showing the possibility o widely scattered showers and thunderstorms later this morning as the airmass destabilizes and a pre frontal trough develops. There is some uncertainty as to how much CAPE there will be during peak heating and at the time of the upper trough and surface cold front. Instability may be more elevated by this evening, and bulk shear increases to 40 to around 50 kt, mainly across the interior. There is still a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across the lower Hudson Valley and into southwestern Connecticut and southward into northeastern New Jersey, New York City and possible into western portions of Suffolk county. The primary threat will be for damaging wind gusts late this afternoon into this evening, and there is a possibility of large hail. Also, an axis of heavier rain is possible across the lower Hudson Valley into southwestern Connecticut.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The surface cold front and upper trough will be exiting the region early Thursday morning, probability by 12Z. The surface low will be slowly tracking northward Thursday and the trailing cold front may linger just to the east and south of Long Island through much of Thursday. High pressure will be slow to build east as the upper trough remains across the northeast into Friday morning. There is a chance showers linger longer into Thursday morning, however, once the front moves east dry weather is then expected. However, clearing across the far eastern areas may be slowed.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pushes off the New England Coast late in the day Friday into Friday night, allowing a warm front to lift north of the area Saturday. An unsettled pattern sets up Saturday night and Sunday as a prefrontal trough and cold front move through. Some timing differences with the models this far out, but for the most part, they are generally 3 to 6 hours apart in the passage of the main cold front late in the day Sunday into late Sunday night. High pressure then builds in for Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be associated with the prefrontal trough and cold frontal passages with MUCAPE values well over 1000 J/kg on Sunday.
The quick return flow Friday night and the approach and passage of a warm front into Saturday will mean humidity levels on the rise, with humid conditions Saturday and more so into Sunday. They then come down again after the passage of the cold fronts Sunday, with comfortable levels for most by Monday.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front lifts north of the area this morning as a cold front approaches tonight which moves through late tonight into Thursday morning.
VFR prevails. Possible MVFR conditions in association with any thunderstorms towards evening PROB30 groups for TSRA towards 02-05Z for the western and city terminals with arrival of pre- frontal trough. There may be some isolated showers and thunderstorms prior to this time frame, but coverage was not high enough to include in TAFs. Best chance for these showers and thunderstorms is for city terminals and points north and west for this afternoon. Any TSRA that develops may contain strong gusty winds or hail, mainly for the associated with the showers and thunderstorms this evening.
SW increase today 10 to around 15 kt, with gusts in the afternoon of 15 to around 20 kt for most terminals. Occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible. Sea breeze development expected for most coastal terminals Wed afternoon, shifting winds more to the S. A shift to the W is then expected late in the TAF period as the cold front moves through, but this off +/- a couple of hours than forecast due to uncertainty in the actual cold frontal passage.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected through daybreak and much of this morning.
Amendments expected with arrival time of t-storms this afternoon into tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in showers and isolated thunderstorms that may move through towards daybreak Thursday. SW winds shifting to the W, then NW with passage of the cold front.
Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday...MVFR possible in a chance of shra and tstms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
With a strong and gusty southwest flow ahead of a cold front, winds and seas on the ocean waters remain at SCA levels today and into tonight. With winds shifting to the northwest and diminishing ocean seas fall below advisory levels late tonight, and may remain elevated into early Thursday morning east of Fire Island Inlet. With the southerly strong gusts a SCA remain in effect until late tonight for the Long Island south shore bays.
Then sub advisory conditions remain through Friday. For the non ocean waters winds and seas remain below advisory levels today through Friday.
Winds and waves generally remain below SCA criteria from Friday night through Saturday night. However, there is the potential for SCA winds on Saturday as the pressure gradient increases across the waters. Waves build on the ocean, but shouldn't reach 5 ft until late Saturday night.
HYDROLOGY
Around 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall is forecast late today through early Thursday morning. Locally higher amounts will be possible, especially across the lower Hudson Valley into southwestern Connecticut. Flooding of low lying, and poor drainage areas is possible. Localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out.
No hydrologic concerns Thursday night through the beginning of next week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a high rip current risk at all local Atlantic facing beaches today through early Thursday morning. The rip current risk likely lowers to moderate later Thursday.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 515 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
A warm front moves northeast of the area this morning. A cold front then approaches from the west, moving across late tonight into early Thursday. High pressure builds in for Thursday night and moves over the region late in the day Friday. A warm front lifts north of the area Saturday. A cold front then moves through on Sunday with high pressure building in for the beginning of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
An upper level trough moves out of the northern plains this moving and amplifies through the Great Lakes region and moves toward the east coast late in the day. The upper trough then moves off the northeast and mid Atlantic coast late tonight.
Meanwhile a warm front across upstate New York into eastern Pennsylvania will move across the region this morning. The area then become warm sectored as the surface low moves well to the north of the region. A southwesterly flow brings in warmer and more humid air into the region. While the area will be warm and humid heat indices are expected to peak into the lower and mid 90s, and heat advisories are not expected to be needed. A few of the CAMs are showing the possibility o widely scattered showers and thunderstorms later this morning as the airmass destabilizes and a pre frontal trough develops. There is some uncertainty as to how much CAPE there will be during peak heating and at the time of the upper trough and surface cold front. Instability may be more elevated by this evening, and bulk shear increases to 40 to around 50 kt, mainly across the interior. There is still a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across the lower Hudson Valley and into southwestern Connecticut and southward into northeastern New Jersey, New York City and possible into western portions of Suffolk county. The primary threat will be for damaging wind gusts late this afternoon into this evening, and there is a possibility of large hail. Also, an axis of heavier rain is possible across the lower Hudson Valley into southwestern Connecticut.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The surface cold front and upper trough will be exiting the region early Thursday morning, probability by 12Z. The surface low will be slowly tracking northward Thursday and the trailing cold front may linger just to the east and south of Long Island through much of Thursday. High pressure will be slow to build east as the upper trough remains across the northeast into Friday morning. There is a chance showers linger longer into Thursday morning, however, once the front moves east dry weather is then expected. However, clearing across the far eastern areas may be slowed.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pushes off the New England Coast late in the day Friday into Friday night, allowing a warm front to lift north of the area Saturday. An unsettled pattern sets up Saturday night and Sunday as a prefrontal trough and cold front move through. Some timing differences with the models this far out, but for the most part, they are generally 3 to 6 hours apart in the passage of the main cold front late in the day Sunday into late Sunday night. High pressure then builds in for Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be associated with the prefrontal trough and cold frontal passages with MUCAPE values well over 1000 J/kg on Sunday.
The quick return flow Friday night and the approach and passage of a warm front into Saturday will mean humidity levels on the rise, with humid conditions Saturday and more so into Sunday. They then come down again after the passage of the cold fronts Sunday, with comfortable levels for most by Monday.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A warm front lifts north of the area this morning as a cold front approaches tonight which moves through late tonight into Thursday morning.
VFR prevails. Possible MVFR conditions in association with any thunderstorms towards evening PROB30 groups for TSRA towards 02-05Z for the western and city terminals with arrival of pre- frontal trough. There may be some isolated showers and thunderstorms prior to this time frame, but coverage was not high enough to include in TAFs. Best chance for these showers and thunderstorms is for city terminals and points north and west for this afternoon. Any TSRA that develops may contain strong gusty winds or hail, mainly for the associated with the showers and thunderstorms this evening.
SW increase today 10 to around 15 kt, with gusts in the afternoon of 15 to around 20 kt for most terminals. Occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible. Sea breeze development expected for most coastal terminals Wed afternoon, shifting winds more to the S. A shift to the W is then expected late in the TAF period as the cold front moves through, but this off +/- a couple of hours than forecast due to uncertainty in the actual cold frontal passage.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected through daybreak and much of this morning.
Amendments expected with arrival time of t-storms this afternoon into tonight.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in showers and isolated thunderstorms that may move through towards daybreak Thursday. SW winds shifting to the W, then NW with passage of the cold front.
Thursday: Mainly VFR.
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday...MVFR possible in a chance of shra and tstms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
With a strong and gusty southwest flow ahead of a cold front, winds and seas on the ocean waters remain at SCA levels today and into tonight. With winds shifting to the northwest and diminishing ocean seas fall below advisory levels late tonight, and may remain elevated into early Thursday morning east of Fire Island Inlet. With the southerly strong gusts a SCA remain in effect until late tonight for the Long Island south shore bays.
Then sub advisory conditions remain through Friday. For the non ocean waters winds and seas remain below advisory levels today through Friday.
Winds and waves generally remain below SCA criteria from Friday night through Saturday night. However, there is the potential for SCA winds on Saturday as the pressure gradient increases across the waters. Waves build on the ocean, but shouldn't reach 5 ft until late Saturday night.
HYDROLOGY
Around 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall is forecast late today through early Thursday morning. Locally higher amounts will be possible, especially across the lower Hudson Valley into southwestern Connecticut. Flooding of low lying, and poor drainage areas is possible. Localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out.
No hydrologic concerns Thursday night through the beginning of next week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a high rip current risk at all local Atlantic facing beaches today through early Thursday morning. The rip current risk likely lowers to moderate later Thursday.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NLHC3 | 18 mi | 47 min | 71°F | 29.80 | ||||
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 21 mi | 47 min | 68°F | 67°F | 29.76 | |||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 32 mi | 47 min | SW 9.9G | 69°F | 67°F | 29.80 | ||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 46 mi | 47 min | SW 7G | 71°F | 66°F | 29.74 |
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSNC
NEW Forecast page for KSNC (use "back" to return)
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NEW Forecast page for KSNC (use "back" to return)
Wind History graph: SNC
(wind in knots)Orient
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:33 AM EDT 3.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:18 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 08:27 AM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:13 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:20 PM EDT 2.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:46 PM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:33 AM EDT 3.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:18 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 08:27 AM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:13 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:20 PM EDT 2.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 08:46 PM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Orient, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.7 |
| 1 am |
| 3.1 |
| 2 am |
| 3.1 |
| 3 am |
| 2.8 |
| 4 am |
| 2.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.2 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.4 |
Tide / Current for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
EDIT HIDE HelpThe Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:11 AM EDT 3.12 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:12 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:17 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT -3.69 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:52 AM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:12 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 12:43 PM EDT 3.25 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:49 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:10 PM EDT -3.43 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:58 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:11 AM EDT 3.12 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:12 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:17 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 06:39 AM EDT -3.69 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:52 AM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:12 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 12:43 PM EDT 3.25 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:49 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:10 PM EDT -3.43 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:58 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31), knots
| 12 am |
| 3.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.4 |
| 4 am |
| -1.4 |
| 5 am |
| -2.8 |
| 6 am |
| -3.5 |
| 7 am |
| -3.6 |
| 8 am |
| -2.9 |
| 9 am |
| -1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 3 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| -2 |
| 6 pm |
| -3 |
| 7 pm |
| -3.4 |
| 8 pm |
| -3.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -2 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Upton, NY,
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