Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Marion, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Region in between high pressure to south and west and low pressure to north and east into the first half of this week. A few frontal system pass by but without much rain. Breezy and mild conditions expected much of the time.

2) A stronger and larger low pressure area develops and approaches towards late in the week. Greater chances of widespread rain and perhaps even some mixing with snow for more northern sections of the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
In the mid levels, strong shortwave moves into Canadian Maritimes with the local region having some brief ridging. However, another strong shortwave approaches tonight and moves across on Monday. Yet another mid level shortwave moves across Tuesday but will be less amplified. At the surface, low pressure near Maine moves northward into the Canadian Maritimes and deepens today. Any remaining widely scattered rain showers taper off early, with a mainly dry day expected. Tonight, the low pressure retrogrades a little to the west but overall maintains a general northward track without much weakening. The pressure gradient will steepen across the local area today between the low to the northeast and high pressure well to the south and west. The pressure gradient will remain rather steep tonight. The result will be gusty westerly flow with frequent gusts near 25 to 30 mph today into tonight.

The same pressure pattern remains Monday but low pressure in Southeast Canada weakens some with high pressure well to the south and west of the local area. A frontal system passes through on Monday with more west to northwest gusty flow. Wind speeds and gusts similar to the previous day. Mainly dry conditions forecast to prevail tonight through midweek. A few rain showers are possible Monday but with lack of moisture content in the atmosphere, rainfall amounts will stay light, under a quarter of an inch. No hydrologic impacts are expected.

Another frontal system looks to move across Tuesday into Tuesday night but no rain is expected with this one and not even that much of an increase in clouds. The system has less amplified flow aloft so winds will be more on a downward trend Tuesday into Wednesday.

Regarding temperatures, the airmass generally remains mild with temperatures staying above normal with highs staying mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s range. Temperatures at night will have less radiational cooling with the boundary layer winds staying up.

A note about the NBM. Once again, the NBM in this westerly wind pattern has solutions that are not high enough compared to MAV MOS. MAV MOS was used more for winds through Monday with manual adjustment upward for wind gusts through Tuesday compared to NBM alone. MAV temperatures used for high temperature forecast today and tonight and blended in with NBM for temperature forecast Monday and Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2
More of an amplified pattern seems to be taking shape approaching the late week period. Flow orientation transition from zonal to more meridional. Models are indicating a deep upper level trough moving into the local region Friday into Saturday. At the surface, weak high pressure briefly traverses the local area Wednesday into Wednesday night with a low pressure system developing just south of the Great Lakes and moving northeast into the local region Thursday into Thursday night. The system may linger nearby Friday into the start of next weekend.

Overall, airmass will become cooler with time. High temperature forecasts exhibit quite the lowering trend from mid to late week.
Highs forecast Wednesday mostly in the lower 60s transition to just upper 40s to near 50 by Friday. In addition, the low pressure approach and movement near the area will have associated higher chances of rain, widespread rainfall Thursday into Friday, possibly lingering into Saturday. Some locations across the northern half of the region may even have some snow mixing in with the rain at times as forecast temperatures occasionally get near 30.

There is uncertainty with the timing and position of trough and surface low making exact impacts difficult to assess at this time. Confidence in exact details is low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An upper low lifts north of the area through this afternoon as high pressure builds to the south. A weakening cold front approaches Monday morning.

VFR prevails.

W to WNW winds of 8-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt at most terminals early this morning, with gusts increasing some towards mid to late morning. Overall, gusts should largely diminish by late this afternoon as the winds shift more to the W-WSW. The city terminals should gust much of the time tonight at 15-20 kt, with outlying terminals losing gusts for a time tonight. Gusts re-develop towards daybreak on Monday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts diminishing or ending late this afternoon remains uncertain, with gusts possibly lasting longer than currently indicated in TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday: VFR. W-NW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in possible showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With a steep pressure gradient remaining in place across the local waters, widespread SCA wind gusts are expected to continue through Monday. As such, the SCA has been extended on all waters through the day Monday, until 6PM EST Monday. For the ocean, their seas stay near 5 to 7 ft through Monday and are forecast to remain near 5 to 6 ft Monday night. Therefore the SCA for the ocean zones out 20 NM goes further, ending at 6AM EST Tuesday.

Additional SCA wind gusts are possible Tuesday with the next frontal system passage with ocean SCA seas potentially lasting more into Tuesday as well as Tuesday night. Brief sub-SCA conditions forecast for midweek for all waters before winds and seas increase Thursday into Thursday night with potential return of SCA conditions.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.