Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Greenport West, NY
June 30, 2024 6:47 AM EDT (10:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:19 AM Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 1:10 AM Moonset 3:09 PM |
ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 542 Am Edt Sun Jun 30 2024
Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog early. Chance of showers early, then slight chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon. Chance of showers and tstms likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early.
Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Mon - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 542 Am Edt Sun Jun 30 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening. High pressure then builds in Monday and will remain in control through Wednesday. A warm front lifts north of the area on Wednesday night followed by a cold front late in the week which may remain nearby into the first half of next weekend.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 300939 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 539 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening. High pressure then builds in Monday and will remain in control through Wednesday. A warm front lifts north of the area on Wednesday Night followed by a cold front late in the week which may remain nearby into the first half of next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
For this morning, weak shortwave energy may continue to produce some showers mainly across Long Island and southeast Connecticut.
The support for the showers should push south and east shortly after 12z as middle level energy passes. There may then be a relative min in showers for the rest of the morning. Some clouds will likely linger and there may be some patchy fog along the coast.
Attention then turns to the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the region. A pre-frontal trough will move in ahead of the front early this afternoon and will likely be the convergence mechanism to initiate convection around 1-3pm well north and west of the NYC metro. The convection should continue to develop and organize into a line of storms that will move south east across the area through the rest of the afternoon and early evening. The actual cold front will follow quickly behind the pre-frontal trough and could initiate a few more showers and storms early in the evening before any lingering convection pushes offshore.
The main threat from the thunderstorms will be from damaging wind gusts in excess of 58 mph. There is also a risk of hail and an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. SPC has continued to highlight a slight risk across the entire area. The timing of the highest risk for severe thunderstorms appears to be between about 3pm and 9pm based on the SPC experimental timing graphics. The main uncertainty with the timing is whether or not the pre-frontal trough convection will be predominate and have the greatest chance at being severe or will it be with the actual cold front. In either case, the earlier timing in the aforementioned range favors the interior with the later afternoon and early evening for locations closer to the coast including the NYC metro and Long Island.
The ingredients for potential severe thunderstorms include an unstable environment with MLCAPE values 1500-2500 J/kg and SBCAPE values 2000-3500 J/kg. Some CAMS even indicate SBCAPEs pushing 4000 J/kg, especially away from any maritime influence.
Bulk shear values increase through the day with an approaching middle and upper level shortwave. There looks to be about an average of 35-45 kt of 0-6 km shear, especially in the afternoon and evening. Winds are mostly unidirectional, but enhanced surface convergence from storm outflow could support a few rotating updrafts and an isolated or brief tornado. The region will also lie in the right entrance of a jet streak over northern New England and southeast Canada, which should help support the convection into the early evening.
Cloud cover to start the day should diminish in coverage late morning and early afternoon, but there may some lingering low clouds close to the coast. Even just a few breaks in the clouds will bring quick surface heating and quick destabilization with surface dew points in the lower 70s.
PWATs look to range from around 1.75 to around 2 inches with subtropical moisture pooling along the approaching boundary.
While locally heavy downpours are likely, the flash flood risk is low and isolated due to the relatively fast steering flow and progressive nature of the convection. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is most likely.
Another concern with the convection will be from frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Forecast soundings show a decent amount of CAPE in the -10C to -30C region of the profile which typically is a sign that once the convection organizes there will likely be frequent lightning. The CAPE in this zone also supports the risk of hail.
Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s for most with potential of hitting 90 in urban NE NJ. Heat indices should reach around 90 for much of the area with close to 95 in the NYC and urban NE NJ corridor. The cold front will push south and east of the area this evening and should be offshore after midnight. Some showers/storms may linger near the coast after 9pm, but most of the activity should be ending thereafter. Much drier and cooler air will begin working in behind the front with dew points falling into the 50s and low 60s by early Monday morning.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The upper trough will pivot across New England on Monday. The progression of the trough will be slow enough that a few showers may develop across eastern CT and the east end of Long Island Monday afternoon. These would be associated with energy within the trough that may attempt to close off near the New England coast. Otherwise, high pressure will slowly build in from the Great Lakes region. Mainly partly cloudy skies are expected although it could trend mostly cloudy out east in the afternoon.
Highs will be a bit below normal for July 1 ranging from the upper 70s inland to around 80 near the coast. The pressure gradient ahead of the building high pressure will support N gusts 20-25 mph.
The trough pushes offshore Monday night with ridging building behind it into Tuesday. The surface high will also settle over the area by Tuesday. Dry conditions will continue with highs moderating to seasonable levels in the lower to middle 80s for Tuesday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
No major changes were made to the Long Term and closely followed the NBM.
High pressure will remain in control on Wednesday before shifting offshore Wednesday night as a warm front lifts to the north. A cold front will follow, but will likely not move through the area and may remain to our north into early next weekend. Will have to watch the evolution of any middle level impulses as they ride along the periphery of the ridge. These are difficult to resolve at this time range, but they may be a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Right now the consensus of the modeling indicates a bit higher probability on Friday and potentially Saturday compared to Thursday.
Temperatures remain seasonable on Wednesday. The deterministic NBM has trended down a bit for the end of the week, but still should reach above normal levels, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast. Similar readings are expected through Saturday. Humidity levels will also be on the rise for the end of the week into next Saturday.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A warm front will continue to lift northeast through the area overnight. A pre- frontal trough will approach and settle nearby today, followed by a cold front this evening.
Seeing LIFR cond attm at KISP/KHPN/KGON, with KJFK currently VFR but right on the edge of those conditions, which should return there overnight into the AM hours. MVFR at KEWR/KTEB/KSWF should also expand to KLGA/KBDR overnight.
Diminishing area of light showers moving across attm. Expect dry cond thereafter until at least midday, then two rounds of tstm are possible. The first of these with the pre-frontal trough should impact the Hudson Valley terminals from 17Z-19Z, the NYC metros from about 18Z-20Z, and out east across Long Island/CT from 19Z-21Z. The second round with the cold front should occur from late afternoon into the evening, impacting the NYC metros from 22Z-23Z until 02Z-03Z, once again about an hour earlier to the NW and an hour or two later to the E. Stronger cells with either round could produce strong W-NW winds, but have not yet mentioned this explicitly in TAF's.
Outside of tstms, S-SW winds 5-10 kt should become more SW and increase to 10-15 G20kt by afternoon. After cold fropa this evening, winds shift NW around or just over 10 kt, with some terminals gusting to 15-20 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KJFK currently VFR, but sitting on the edge of LIFR cond that could expand back into the terminal airspace overnight into the AM push. MVFR likely to return to KLGA as well.
Strong wind gusts possible with any tstm directly impacting the terminals this afternoon into this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late Sunday night: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Monday through Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Possible MVFR or lower cond with any late day or nighttime showers/tstms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Locally dense fog has been occurring nearshore across the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet. Have issued a marine weather statement to account for this with the expectation the fog improves by 10 am.
The SCA on the ocean remains in effect through midnight. A cold front will approach the waters this afternoon and move across this evening. Showers and thunderstorms may bring locally higher winds and seas. Conditions will subside below SCA levels overnight behind the front.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels through the week.
However, late day winds in the NY Bight area just E of Sandy Hook could gust close to 25 kt each afternoon Wed through Fri.
HYDROLOGY
Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening with locally heavy downpours. The main hydro threat with this activity is from minor urban and poor drainage flooding. There is a low risk for localized flash flooding.
Locally heavy rainfall is also be possible the end of the upcoming week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A high rip current risk continues into this evening with swells of 5-6 ft and 7 second period. Seas and swells subside a bit on Monday with the flow becoming N. Have gone with a moderate rip current risk for Monday, which is supported by the latest RCMOS guidance.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353- 355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 539 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening. High pressure then builds in Monday and will remain in control through Wednesday. A warm front lifts north of the area on Wednesday Night followed by a cold front late in the week which may remain nearby into the first half of next weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
For this morning, weak shortwave energy may continue to produce some showers mainly across Long Island and southeast Connecticut.
The support for the showers should push south and east shortly after 12z as middle level energy passes. There may then be a relative min in showers for the rest of the morning. Some clouds will likely linger and there may be some patchy fog along the coast.
Attention then turns to the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the region. A pre-frontal trough will move in ahead of the front early this afternoon and will likely be the convergence mechanism to initiate convection around 1-3pm well north and west of the NYC metro. The convection should continue to develop and organize into a line of storms that will move south east across the area through the rest of the afternoon and early evening. The actual cold front will follow quickly behind the pre-frontal trough and could initiate a few more showers and storms early in the evening before any lingering convection pushes offshore.
The main threat from the thunderstorms will be from damaging wind gusts in excess of 58 mph. There is also a risk of hail and an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. SPC has continued to highlight a slight risk across the entire area. The timing of the highest risk for severe thunderstorms appears to be between about 3pm and 9pm based on the SPC experimental timing graphics. The main uncertainty with the timing is whether or not the pre-frontal trough convection will be predominate and have the greatest chance at being severe or will it be with the actual cold front. In either case, the earlier timing in the aforementioned range favors the interior with the later afternoon and early evening for locations closer to the coast including the NYC metro and Long Island.
The ingredients for potential severe thunderstorms include an unstable environment with MLCAPE values 1500-2500 J/kg and SBCAPE values 2000-3500 J/kg. Some CAMS even indicate SBCAPEs pushing 4000 J/kg, especially away from any maritime influence.
Bulk shear values increase through the day with an approaching middle and upper level shortwave. There looks to be about an average of 35-45 kt of 0-6 km shear, especially in the afternoon and evening. Winds are mostly unidirectional, but enhanced surface convergence from storm outflow could support a few rotating updrafts and an isolated or brief tornado. The region will also lie in the right entrance of a jet streak over northern New England and southeast Canada, which should help support the convection into the early evening.
Cloud cover to start the day should diminish in coverage late morning and early afternoon, but there may some lingering low clouds close to the coast. Even just a few breaks in the clouds will bring quick surface heating and quick destabilization with surface dew points in the lower 70s.
PWATs look to range from around 1.75 to around 2 inches with subtropical moisture pooling along the approaching boundary.
While locally heavy downpours are likely, the flash flood risk is low and isolated due to the relatively fast steering flow and progressive nature of the convection. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is most likely.
Another concern with the convection will be from frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Forecast soundings show a decent amount of CAPE in the -10C to -30C region of the profile which typically is a sign that once the convection organizes there will likely be frequent lightning. The CAPE in this zone also supports the risk of hail.
Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s for most with potential of hitting 90 in urban NE NJ. Heat indices should reach around 90 for much of the area with close to 95 in the NYC and urban NE NJ corridor. The cold front will push south and east of the area this evening and should be offshore after midnight. Some showers/storms may linger near the coast after 9pm, but most of the activity should be ending thereafter. Much drier and cooler air will begin working in behind the front with dew points falling into the 50s and low 60s by early Monday morning.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The upper trough will pivot across New England on Monday. The progression of the trough will be slow enough that a few showers may develop across eastern CT and the east end of Long Island Monday afternoon. These would be associated with energy within the trough that may attempt to close off near the New England coast. Otherwise, high pressure will slowly build in from the Great Lakes region. Mainly partly cloudy skies are expected although it could trend mostly cloudy out east in the afternoon.
Highs will be a bit below normal for July 1 ranging from the upper 70s inland to around 80 near the coast. The pressure gradient ahead of the building high pressure will support N gusts 20-25 mph.
The trough pushes offshore Monday night with ridging building behind it into Tuesday. The surface high will also settle over the area by Tuesday. Dry conditions will continue with highs moderating to seasonable levels in the lower to middle 80s for Tuesday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
No major changes were made to the Long Term and closely followed the NBM.
High pressure will remain in control on Wednesday before shifting offshore Wednesday night as a warm front lifts to the north. A cold front will follow, but will likely not move through the area and may remain to our north into early next weekend. Will have to watch the evolution of any middle level impulses as they ride along the periphery of the ridge. These are difficult to resolve at this time range, but they may be a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Right now the consensus of the modeling indicates a bit higher probability on Friday and potentially Saturday compared to Thursday.
Temperatures remain seasonable on Wednesday. The deterministic NBM has trended down a bit for the end of the week, but still should reach above normal levels, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast. Similar readings are expected through Saturday. Humidity levels will also be on the rise for the end of the week into next Saturday.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A warm front will continue to lift northeast through the area overnight. A pre- frontal trough will approach and settle nearby today, followed by a cold front this evening.
Seeing LIFR cond attm at KISP/KHPN/KGON, with KJFK currently VFR but right on the edge of those conditions, which should return there overnight into the AM hours. MVFR at KEWR/KTEB/KSWF should also expand to KLGA/KBDR overnight.
Diminishing area of light showers moving across attm. Expect dry cond thereafter until at least midday, then two rounds of tstm are possible. The first of these with the pre-frontal trough should impact the Hudson Valley terminals from 17Z-19Z, the NYC metros from about 18Z-20Z, and out east across Long Island/CT from 19Z-21Z. The second round with the cold front should occur from late afternoon into the evening, impacting the NYC metros from 22Z-23Z until 02Z-03Z, once again about an hour earlier to the NW and an hour or two later to the E. Stronger cells with either round could produce strong W-NW winds, but have not yet mentioned this explicitly in TAF's.
Outside of tstms, S-SW winds 5-10 kt should become more SW and increase to 10-15 G20kt by afternoon. After cold fropa this evening, winds shift NW around or just over 10 kt, with some terminals gusting to 15-20 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KJFK currently VFR, but sitting on the edge of LIFR cond that could expand back into the terminal airspace overnight into the AM push. MVFR likely to return to KLGA as well.
Strong wind gusts possible with any tstm directly impacting the terminals this afternoon into this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late Sunday night: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Monday through Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Possible MVFR or lower cond with any late day or nighttime showers/tstms.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Locally dense fog has been occurring nearshore across the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet. Have issued a marine weather statement to account for this with the expectation the fog improves by 10 am.
The SCA on the ocean remains in effect through midnight. A cold front will approach the waters this afternoon and move across this evening. Showers and thunderstorms may bring locally higher winds and seas. Conditions will subside below SCA levels overnight behind the front.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels through the week.
However, late day winds in the NY Bight area just E of Sandy Hook could gust close to 25 kt each afternoon Wed through Fri.
HYDROLOGY
Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening with locally heavy downpours. The main hydro threat with this activity is from minor urban and poor drainage flooding. There is a low risk for localized flash flooding.
Locally heavy rainfall is also be possible the end of the upcoming week.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A high rip current risk continues into this evening with swells of 5-6 ft and 7 second period. Seas and swells subside a bit on Monday with the flow becoming N. Have gone with a moderate rip current risk for Monday, which is supported by the latest RCMOS guidance.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ350-353- 355.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 24 mi | 47 min | 64°F | 29.93 | ||||
| NLHC3 | 25 mi | 47 min | 29.96 | |||||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 30 mi | 47 min | SSW 5.1G | 69°F | 29.97 | |||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 42 mi | 47 min | SW 2.9G | 67°F | 29.91 |
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSNC
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSNC
Wind History graph: SNC
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Hashamomuck Beach, Long Island Sound, New York
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Hashamomuck Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:35 AM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:10 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT 4.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:49 PM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:09 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:22 PM EDT 4.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:35 AM EDT 0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:10 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 05:20 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:55 AM EDT 4.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:49 PM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:09 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 07:22 PM EDT 4.77 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Hashamomuck Beach, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 2.4 |
| 5 am |
| 3.3 |
| 6 am |
| 3.9 |
| 7 am |
| 4.1 |
| 8 am |
| 3.8 |
| 9 am |
| 3 |
| 10 am |
| 2.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 4 |
| 10 pm |
| 3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.9 |
Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:10 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 01:38 AM EDT 1.17 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:21 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:04 AM EDT -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:28 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:11 PM EDT 1.56 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:09 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:34 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:48 PM EDT -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:10 AM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 01:38 AM EDT 1.17 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:39 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:21 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 08:04 AM EDT -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:28 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:11 PM EDT 1.56 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:09 PM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 05:34 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 08:48 PM EDT -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.5 |
| 5 am |
| -0.3 |
| 6 am |
| -0.9 |
| 7 am |
| -1.3 |
| 8 am |
| -1.5 |
| 9 am |
| -1.4 |
| 10 am |
| -0.9 |
| 11 am |
| -0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| -1 |
| 8 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| -1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.9 |
Upton, NY,
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