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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 115 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..W winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 115 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. In the wake of deepening low pressure over eastern canada, high pressure over the northern plains will build toward the east coast through mid week, sliding offshore by Thursday. A quick moving low pressure system will affect the region from late Friday into Friday night, with high pressure building to the north in its wake for the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 281018 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 518 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
The are will remain between low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure over the central states. After an upper level disturbance moves across this afternoon and evening, the high will build toward the Mid Atlantic and Southeast states through Thursday, while a warm front passes to the north on Wednesday. A quick moving low pressure system will affect the region late Friday into Friday night, with high pressure building to the north in its wake for Saturday. A stronger low may affect the region from Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Skies are clearing out east for the time being. Expect clouds to return from the NW today as an upper trough moves across and helps a few lake effect snow bands make it into the area. Per HRRR forecasts the main push of these bands should begin late this morning well NW of NYC, then drift SE toward the NYC metro area early this afternoon, and then mainly across Long Island later this afternoon. A few spots could see a quick coating of accumulation, but do not expect this to be widespread. Another brief round of snow showers may occur early this evening across SE CT after the upper trough axis passes east and as another trailing mid level vort max moves across.

Temps should start off warmer than initially forecast, with upper 20s in the interior valleys and mostly lower 30s elsewhere, but only reach the mid/upper 30s well inland and lower 40s across the NYC metro area and along the coast despite a deep/well-mixed BL.

W winds 15-25 mph with some gusts up to 30 mph should increase further late this afternoon with passage of the trough axis, and a few gusts 35-40 mph are possible in the metro area and across Long Island toward evening. These winds will advect in the coldest air mass of the season thus far for tonight, with low temps in the 20s throughout and wind chills in the teens.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
On Wed winds will back WSW as the high drifts toward the coast, while a warm front passing well NW leads to a period of clouds during the afternoon/evening mainly inland. High temps should be similar to those of today, mainly mid 30s to lower 40s.
Another cold night under mostly clear skies and diminishing winds expected for Wed night, with lows from the lower 30s in NYC to the 20s most elsewhere, to some teens in the interior valleys.

The air mass will start to moderate on Thu as SW return flow continues, with highs closer to normal under sunny skies.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The flow aloft will be somewhat flat Thursday night into Friday with a weak surface cold front passing through during Friday night. Dry at least through Friday morning. The cold front will then combine with lift from a jet streak aloft and some mid- level vorticity for rain Friday afternoon into night. High pressure then builds in from the north on Saturday with dry weather.

Forecast confidence then lowers Sunday into Monday with the next potential storm to impact the region. There's disagreement among the global models regarding the timing and placement of low pressure, however NBM favors the ECMWF/Canadian GDPS camp over GFS. The forecast reflects this greater support. Low pressure shifts through or nearby Sunday night/early Monday morning, potentially with another low center passing well to our north.
Overrunning precipitation could occur as early as late Saturday night, but the better precip chances appear to be more during the Sunday afternoon through early Monday period. Capped PoPs at 50% for this event given the uncertainty. It would be mainly a rain event for most spots, but wintry precip types would be possible north of the city should precipitation occur late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure slowly builds in from the west.

VFR through the TAF period. There is however a slight chance of snow showers/flurries with brief visibility restrictions late this morning and afternoon primarily for KSWF and KHPN.

West winds around 15kt through the morning push with gusts around 20kt for some terminals. Winds increase late this morning into the afternoon closer to 20kt with gusts around 30kt, then diminish overnight.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts at KJFK and KLGA may be only occasional through the morning push. Occasional gusts around 20kt possible at KEWR through the morning push. Gusts of at least 30kt for KJFK/KLGA/KEWR will be most likely during the period of 19z-23z, with a peak gust of 35kt possible. During this same period, KTEB could occasionally gust to 30kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight: VFR. W winds 10-15kt. G20-25kt end by Weds AM push.

Wed: VFR.

Thu: VFR.

Fri: VFR in the morning, MVFR or lower in rain in the afternoon and night.

Sat: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Previous near/short term forecast thinking remains unchanged, as a gale warning remains in effect for the ocean waters for today and most of tonight as winds gust between 35-40 kt after passage of an upper level disturbance, with the frame for strongest winds from late this afternoon into this evening. SCA also remains in effect for the remaining waters, and a few gusts to gale force may be possible on the eastern Sound and bays this evening. Ocean seas should build to 6-9 ft, and some 5-6 footers are also expected on the ern Sound, both peaking this evening.

Sub-SCA conds expected on the non ocean waters daytime Wed, and there may even be a brief lull on the ocean before WSW flow increases, with gusts over 25 kt and seas 5-6 ft especially E of Fire Island Inlet. Gusts may also reach 25 kt on the sound E of Orient Point Wed evening.

Residual 5-ft seas should last on the ocean mainly E of Fire Island Inlet into Thu morning.

A return to SCA conditions is likely Thu night thru Friday morning on the ocean waters as SW flow strengthens again ahead of an approaching frontal system. A brief period of sub-SCA conditions is possible Friday afternoon as winds and seas subside. For Friday night into Saturday, swell is expected to build and push seas back over 5 ft. There is a chance that this might not occur, which would lead to an extended period of sub advisory conditions all the way through Saturday night.

HYDROLOGY
No issues expected through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Hashamomuck Beach
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Tue -- 05:06 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:33 AM EST     4.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:45 PM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hashamomuck Beach, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Tue -- 12:15 AM EST     -1.62 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:34 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:22 AM EST     1.84 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:56 PM EST     -1.85 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:32 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:55 PM EST     1.27 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:48 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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