Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 3:17 AM   Moonset 5:44 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  News

GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 352 Am Cdt Wed Jul 3 2024
Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 15 knots and gusty this afternoon. A moderate chop on the bay. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. Friday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Light chop on the bay, increasing to a moderate chop late in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Light chop on the bay. Saturday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters becoming a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop on the bay. A slight chance of Thunderstorms with a chance of showers mainly after midnight.Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots and gusty. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy at times. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.Sunday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots and gusty. Choppy on the bay. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms especially Saturday night and Sunday. Winds may be much stronger Saturday night through Sunday night pending the position, intensity, and location of beryl.

GMZ100 352 Am Cdt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis - High pressure over the western gulf of mexico will produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the lower texas coast through Friday night. SWells from tropical cyclone beryl should arrive in the lower texas gulf waters beginning Saturday, with roughening and building seas Saturday night through Sunday night as beryl approaches the waters from the southeast. Please Monitor information from the national hurricane center on beryl, which could require watches or warnings over the weekend.

FXUS64 KBRO 030943 AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 443 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Key Message:

* Start of the Fourth of July window is seasonably hot with ideal beach conditions.

In a phrase? Set it and forget it. Slightly above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions across the Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas ranchlands will continue through Thursday as east-west elongated 500 mb ridge remains parked across the entire state.
Atmospheric temperatures remain on the high side, but recent maximum temperatures have been sitting just below average across the Valley, perhaps owing to continued evapotranspiration due to rains at the end of June. That said, with full sunshine expect highs to nudge up a degree or two each day, and would not surprise to see triple-digit temperatures return to the mid/upper Valley for the Fourth of July.

Otherwise, expect a similar afternoon wind pickup this afternoon and again on the Fourth from the southeast at 15-20 mph with higher gusts, reaching the upper Valley/Rio Grande Plains by early to mid evening before laying down a bit overnight. Expect 8 to 11 mph winds through the night which will keep lows from falling much below 80...but this has been a story since May, and is now more in line with climatology this time of year.

As for the "feels like" temperatures...a smidge of drier surface air reached the area on Tuesday and helped keep these values below the 111 criteria for most areas. Current forecast suggests the same...most areas below 110 by mid afternoon so will hold off on a special weather statement as these values are just a few degrees above climatology for this time of year.

Bottom line? The usual heat safety precautions apply today through the Fourth...drink plenty of water before, during, and after activities and find shady or cooler spots as available while celebrating.

LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

This portion of the total forecast is highly dependent on tropical system Beryl, currently a Category 4 hurricane south of Haiti and marching steadily towards an impact with Jamaica today. As the long term forecast begins, Beryl is forecast to be just east of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane, with Beryl expected to be just emerging offshore the northwest portion of the peninsula Friday evening as a tropical storm. The official Beryl track courtesy of the National Hurricane Center then moves Beryl west-northwest to northwest as a tropical storm over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend, with a projected landfall Sunday evening in the vicinity of Carboneras (about 80 miles south of Brownsville) in northeast Tamaulipas.

Given the above-mentioned timing and track, it is reasonable to assume that conditions, initially tranquil due to mid-level high pressure, will deteriorate during the weekend, subsequently becoming dangerous later Sunday and into early Monday. The forecast timing and track also suggest that conditions may improve later Monday and especially on Tuesday as Beryl moves deeper into Texas or northern Mexico.

Residents of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley are urged to monitor the progress of Beryl through the end of the week and into the weekend. Naturally, with any tropical system possibly making landfall about 80 miles south of Brownsville, heavy rain with possible flooding, strong winds with damage and power outages, isolated tornadoes, and high surf with severe beach erosion (at the local beaches) is a distinct possibility. To what extent these things occur will be determined by the size and strength of Beryl once she makes her final landfall.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

About the only difference between the next 24 hours and the last 24 hours is an increase in southeasterly flow...courtesy of a slightly stronger surface trough across the lee of the Sierra Madre than in recent days
Otherwise
skies should remain fair with mainly patchy, mostly VFR (few-scattered) cumulus and few- scattered cirrus above it. Afternoon winds will get the usual early to mid-afternoon sea breeze push, with strongest speeds reaching McAllen just before sunset, which is typical in this pattern. Winds drop back below 10 knots between 10 PM and 1 AM Thursday.

So
other than the afternoon thermals
and decent period for takeoffs and landings.

MARINE
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

High pressure stretching across the Gulf will keep a cap on southeast wind flow over the Gulf, with the usual afternoon pickup over Laguna Madre each day that will fall just below caution levels (15-20 knots and gust). Seas are sitting at 2-3 feet today in the Gulf and should remain there through Thursday.

Other than the heat...ideal boating/fishing conditions with just enough breeze to wick away the sweat, even over the normally cooler Gulf waters.

(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
This portion of the total marine forecast is highly dependent on tropical system Beryl, currently a Category 4 hurricane south of Haiti and marching steadily towards an impact with Jamaica today.
As the long term forecast begins, Beryl is forecast to be just east of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a hurricane, with Beryl expected to be just emerging offshore the northwest portion of the peninsula Friday evening as a tropical storm. The official Beryl track courtesy of the National Hurricane Center then moves Beryl west-northwest to northwest as a tropical storm over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend, with a projected landfall Sunday evening in the vicinity of Carboneras (about 80 miles south of Brownsville) in northeast Tamaulipas.

Given the above-mentioned timing and track, it is reasonable to assume that marine conditions, initially tranquil due to surface high pressure, will deteriorate during the weekend, subsequently becoming dangerous Sunday and into early Monday. The forecast timing and track also suggest that marine conditions may improve later Monday and especially on Tuesday as Beryl moves deeper into Texas or northern Mexico.

Mariners along the Lower Texas Coast are urged to monitor the progress of Beryl through the end of the week and into the weekend. Naturally, with any tropical system possibly making landfall about 80 miles south of Brownsville, strong winds and high seas, requiring vessels to remain in port, is a distinct possibility. To what extent these things occur will be determined by the size and strength of Beryl once she makes her final landfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 81 95 81 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 96 78 97 77 / 0 10 10 0 MCALLEN 98 80 99 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 83 89 83 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 80 94 79 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:16 AM CDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:43 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:47 PM CDT     -1.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Padre Island (South), Texas, Tide feet

Matamoros
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:18 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:41 AM CST     1.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:44 PM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:16 PM CST     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:25 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Brownsville, TX,