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GMZ130 Laguna Madre From The Port Of Brownsville To The Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre From The Arroyo Colorado To 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield Tx- Laguna Madre From 5 Nm North Of Port Mansfield To Baffin Bay Tx- 921 Am Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Light chop on the bay becoming a moderate chop this afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. A moderate chop on the bay becoming choppy after midnight. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Gusts to around 30 knots. Choppy on the bay becoming rough in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Choppy on the bay becoming light chop after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds around 5 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Smooth on the bay becoming light chop in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. A chance of showers.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Light chop on the bay. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ100 921 Am Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis..Surface high pressure passes to the east providing light to moderate east winds today. Fresh southerly winds and building seas leading to hazardous conditions are expected from tonight through Thursday night as low pressure and a cold front take shape over the southern plains. The cold front pushes off the lower texas coast late Friday with light to moderate northerly winds that persist through Sunday.

FXUS64 KBRO 291134 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 534 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Weak upper level ridging will slowly give way to a longwave trough today. As the higher pressure moves east a low-level jet looks to setup in the southerly return flow overhead. Surface winds look to shift southerly today, with wind speeds increasing tonight into Thursday. Wind speeds could approach 30 knots on thursday over portions of Cameron and Willacy Counties, possibly requiring a Wind Advisory. The southerly flow will continue to support overcast skies, and provide an additional influx of moisture. With the additional moisture, the possibility of light rain returns this afternoon, with deeper moisture bringing the potential for a few isolated Thunderstorms this evening.

Rain chances look to diminish by Sunrise Thursday, and increased southwesterly to westerly flow aloft, courtesy of a shortwave trough moving through, will advect drier mid-level air into the region.
This drying of the mid levels will support clearer skies, and warmer temperatures thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

A mid-level short-wave over the Southern Plains Thursday evening will swing northeastward over the Middle Mississippi River Valley Thursday night into Friday. At the surface, a storm system across the southern High Plains will continue support a tight pressure gradient into Thursday evening. This will result in breezy to windy south to southeast winds briefly lingering into Thursday evening.
Winds are expected to quickly diminish Thursday night as a cold front approaches Deep South Texas. The cold front arrives Friday and scattered showers may accompany the frontal passage. The best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly along the immediate coast where moisture content will be better. Significantly cooler temperatures are not expected in the wake of this front.
Highs on Friday are expected in the mid to upper 70s under mostly cloudy skies. The cold front is expected to stall south of the region on Friday with the potential of a coastal trough developing and lingering off the Lower Texas Coast through the weekend. This will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the Gulf waters, through the weekend. However, latest guidance continues to suggest low rain chances (20 to 30 percent)
Saturday night and Sunday, mainly along and east of the I-69C/US 281 corridor.

Another, deeper 500mb trough will sweep over the Plains this weekend and push another cold front/surge of high pressure into Deep South Texas late Sunday into Monday. Cooler and drier air will surge into the region early next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions continue this morning, however an influx of moisture will likely lead to lowering ceilings today, with MVFR conditions starting shortly before noon. Some light rain is possible this afternoon, however likelihoods are too low to include in the TAFs. This evening rain chances increase at BRO and HRL, with a slight chance of thunderstorms at BRO. Near the end of the period, ceilings are anticipated to drop to IFR levels at MFE and HRL.

MARINE
Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Now through Thursday...Light to moderate winds and moderate seas will continue today. This evening tightening pressure gradients will predicate stronger southerly winds. This in turn will build seas and likely necessitate Small Craft Advisories tonight into Thursday, especially for the Gulf waters.

Thursday night through Sunday...Ongoing adverse marine conditions Thursday night may linger into Friday. A cold front will pushes off the lower Texas coast late Friday with light to moderate northerly winds that will persist through Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 72 68 81 71 / 30 40 10 0 HARLINGEN 71 64 82 67 / 20 30 0 0 MCALLEN 66 61 83 66 / 20 20 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 58 81 62 / 20 20 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 69 76 71 / 20 50 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 65 80 68 / 20 40 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ150- 155.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ170-175.

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Padre Island (South)
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:56 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:16 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:32 AM CST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:36 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:39 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:54 PM CST     2.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Padre Island (South), Texas, Tide feet

Matamoros
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:58 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:17 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:58 AM CST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:38 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:41 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:19 PM CST     1.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Matamoros, Tamaulipas, Mexico, Tide feet

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Brownsville, TX,