Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Padre Island, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Rain-free weather conditions along with warmer than normal temps can be expected through early next week with high pressure in control, frontal boundaries well to our north, and a 588-591 dam heat ridge in place over Deep South Texas. We'll have to keep an eye out for next week and the potential for the weather pattern to become a bit more unsettled.

Multiple forecast and AI/ML models/ensembles are suggesting an increase in showers and thunderstorms next week in association with an approaching or nearby frontal system. We continue to have low- medium (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms in the Monday through Wednesday timeframe. Again, we'll continue to monitor the trends on the chance for the pattern becoming a bit more unsettled next week. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) continues to have much of Texas including all of Deep South Texas under a medium (50- 60%) chance for a wetter than normal pattern in it's 6-10 day outlook which covers May 18-22.

As mentioned earlier, temperatures will run warmer than normal through the forecast period. High temperatures will generally range between the upper 80s to mid 90s across Deep South Texas. There could be a few upper 90s across the far western sections of our CWA (i.e. Zapata and Starr Counties). Overnight low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s tonight through Thursday night before climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s Friday night through next Wednesday night.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with patchy fog, mainly near HRL and BRO, over the next couple of hours.

MARINE
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through Thursday with low to moderate winds and seas. However, more adverse (i.e.
Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions could develop Friday through the weekend and into the early parts of next week. A brief period of high end SCEC to low end Small Craft Advisory conditions is possible Sunday night, in response to breezy/windy conditions from an enhanced pressure gradient.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 89 69 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 63 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 92 68 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 90 67 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 74 83 77 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 69 89 74 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.