Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Padre Island, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Mainly dry conditions (PoPs <10%) are expected across deep south Texas through most of the forecast as our region remains wedged between persistent troughing and high pressure aloft over the western and eastern US, respectively. The only potential low (at most, 15%) chance of rain may be on Thursday from a possible weak low pressure system moving over the Bay of Campeche, causing PWATs to briefly rise above average Thursday into Friday. An isolated shower or two can't be ruled out over the weekend as well. In the meantime, breezy conditions continue today into tomorrow, with southeasterly winds gusting to 25-30+ mph, in response to pressure falls over the Southern Plains and the Sierra Madre. Resulting enhanced moisture advection off the Gulf is expected to result in mainly moderate heat risks through tomorrow as afternoon heat indices peak around 105-110 F, though some areas across the inland portions of the coastal counties could experience major heat risks this afternoon. The pressure gradient and winds are anticipated to ease a bit tomorrow night, slightly lowering apparent temperatures to around 100-105 F with minor to moderate heat risks from Tuesday into the later parts of the week while actual daytime air temperatures continue rising to the mid/upper 90s (upper 90s/low 100s across the Upper RGV) and mid/upper 70s overnight (lower 80s closer/along the coast). Weak high pressure may resume aloft next weekend, which could cause heat indices to near 105-110 F with mainly moderate heat risks.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues today through tomorrow afternoon.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Gusty conditions continue, with VFR prevailing through the period.
Southeasterly winds sustained 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts will persist, lightening up around sunrise Monday before strengthening again through the morning. There is a low (less than 30%) chance of MVFR ceilings at all sites between midnight and sunrise.

MARINE
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the northern Gulf waters (from Port Mansfield and northward 0-60 nm out) until 7 AM Monday morning, along with Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines elsewhere, as a tightened pressure gradient results in fresh to strong southeasterly winds and moderate (4-6 ft). Mainly moderate southeasterly winds and moderate (3-5 ft)
seas are likely to resume by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Dry conditions prevail into at least the middle of the week, likely followed by low (around 15%) chances of rain later in the week and next weekend, possibly as high as a low (15-25%) chance on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 81 94 80 94 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 79 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 99 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 87 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 92 78 91 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135- 155-175.