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FXUS64 KEWX 030729 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 229 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The subtropical ridge is centered over AL/MS this morning and extends to the west over TX. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf has the low level flow from the southeast across our CWA The warm, moist airmass over the region is about the same as 24 hours ago. The pattern will not change significantly during the short term period. The upper ridge will continue to dominate keeping the forecast rain free. The low level flow will remain from the southeast keeping warm, moist air in place. High temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the upper 90s to 103. Dewpoint temperatures have mixed down into the 60s during the last few afternoons and we expect this to continue. This will keep heat indices in the 100 to 105 range over most of the area this afternoon. Thursday afternoon both temperatures and dewpoints will be a degree or two higher and heat indices will approach 108 in the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains. A Heat Advisory could be needed, but models have not shown enough consistency for us to have a lot of confidence in this forecast. We'll wait and see what happens over the next 24 hours before making any decision.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The beginning of the long-term portion of the forecast will see low PoPs mainly in the northern half of the area as a weak disturbance and convective boundary moves into the area. This upper pattern will be a shift from the persistent ridge that has been in place across the region. High temperatures Friday will likely remain in the upper 90s to near 103 degrees ahead of the boundary, but by Saturday and Sunday will likely remain below the century mark for most locations.
Rain chances on Saturday will likely spread over most locations and be highest during the afternoon with the peak of daytime heating.

The focus of the forecast for Sunday into early next week turns to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and what Hurricane Beryl ends up doing track and strength wise. The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center has the cone of uncertainty just south of our CWA by the end of the current 5 day forecast, but as time passes and without significant changes in the track forecast, the forecast cone could be in our CWA by tomorrow. However, there does remain uncertainty with the track forecast in the Day 4-5 time frame as models struggle with the intensity and eventual track of Beryl as it interacts with a weakening ridge to our east and a trough axis working into the Central Plains that should allow the system to turn more north at some point. We want to iterate that at this time frame still 5-6 days out we should not focus on any one deterministic model run, but focus on ensemble data and the official forecast from the Hurricane Center. There will remain high uncertainty on the eventual track of Beryl and the intensity as it makes it to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. We hope to have more confidence on the track/strength/impacts later this week. One thing we are sure of is to stress to anyone traveling to the beach for the the 4th of July, that increased swells and the risk for rip currents increase by the end of the week into the weekend. For the official forecast through Monday, will stick close to the NBM for now.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Southeasterly flow will continue through the next TAF period. Models are not developing ceilings overnight, but we think there will be at intermittent MVFR ceilings in the San Antonio area for a few hours around sunrise. AUS and DRT should remain VFR. Winds will become breezy during the afternoon at all terminals. At DRT there will be gusts up to 25 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 79 102 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 78 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 78 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 77 99 76 97 / 0 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 104 81 103 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 100 77 98 / 0 0 0 20 Hondo Muni Airport 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 78 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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