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FXUS64 KEWX 131047 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 547 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The recent active weather pattern will largely come to an end today as the subtropical ridge axis over northern Mexico into the desert southwest begins to build into the region. We will add some low rain chances to the coastal plains this afternoon as at least a few of the hi-res models show some convection developing during peak heating. We are also noting some weak cyclonic circulation in water vapor imagery over western Texas. We will continue to monitor this as it continues to move southward today. For now, we will not mention any convection outside of the coastal plains, but it is worth monitoring. Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain at or above normal, ranging from the lower 90s to near 103 degrees.
Overnight lows will range from near 70 to near 80 degrees as skies remain mostly clear. We will keep the forecast dry across all areas on Friday as highs inch upward a degree or two from what we are forecasting today.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A shortwave moving to the northeast over the Plains this weekend will create a weakness in the Subtropical Ridge over Texas by Sunday. A plume of tropical moisture initially spreads north to over eastern parts of our area. The seabreeze will become active Sunday and each day through at least mid week. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms return to near the Coastal Plains on Sunday, then west to the I-35 corridor on Monday and Tuesday. Models are increasing the potential for development of a tropical system with NHC now indicating a 40% chance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Whatever develops, models have a consensus in taking the system into Mexico as the Subtropical Ridge begins to re-strengthen over Texas. The moisture plume shifts toward the west with rain chances spreading to the Rio Grande on Wednesday into Thursday. Enhanced rainfall may become possible near the Coastal Plains early in the week, then across the southern parts of the Rio Grande Plains later in the week. Seasonably hot temperatures and humid conditions are expected.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Low clouds continue to remain rather patchy this morning and based on satellite trends, we have removed the TEMPO group for MVFR cigs at AUS. We will keep the TEMPO groups for SAT and SSF through 14Z.
Otherwise, some convection is possible, with most of the activity likely remaining near the coastal plains. We can't completely rule out a few light showers near I-35, but chances are too low to mention in the forecast. Low cloud development for late tonight into Friday morning does not appear too favorable given weak southeasterly flow and we will not mention any MVFR cigs just yet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 96 76 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 95 74 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 74 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 92 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 81 105 81 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 93 74 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 97 75 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 94 73 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 75 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 95 76 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 97 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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