Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kirby, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

There has been a lot of interest in the weekend weather due to the strong front set to arrive and the large amount of outdoor events that are typically planned for April. In short the response has been, some spotty lightning possible in the first 12 hours or so behind the front, and a gusty wind from the front that could approach Wind Advisory criteria. We believe the mid-morning timing, cloud canopy and lack of deep layer of strong winds aloft to be limiting factors, and the MAV guidances which usually provide a good climatological perspective on surface wind speeds is somewhat reserved and mainly sustained below 20 knots. This might correlate with a day where gusts might top 35 mph at times, making for difficult times for those hoisting small event tents and canopies.

The one thing that is not much concern for is severe weather. Sure there is an isolated storm or two possible over the Edwards Plateau late tonight and any strong storm that forms out before the front arrives is expected to be marginally capable of reaching the low end side of severe wind or hail. There current Day2 Outlook (that is soon to be the new Day1) has a small sliver of Marginal Risk (1 of 5) concerns for the northern Hill Country, mainly for elevated hail several hours after front and it doesn't really match the reflectivity stamps of the latest hi-res models. The hi-res models do not agree well with each other either. This leaves us with a low confidence short term forecast on trying to catch the timing and intensity of the stronger activity, which is of course is what event planners want. On the positive side, we should at least be able to almost completely rule out Damaging winds over 50 mph and the threat of a tornado, especially once the front has arrived.

The gusty winds cold last through the evening before giving in to a weaker surface pressure gradient by 06Z Sunday. A low amplitude shortwave ridge should minimize activity over the area by Sunday morning, but a few showers could still move over the Rio Grande Plains where the front will be most shallow. This rain-free period might be short-lived as we'll see in the long range discussion.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The dampened shortwave ridge over TX becomes smoother again Monday as weak troughing moves through the lower latitudes of the westerlies toward TX. While the winds are still mainly out of the east and northeast, this Pacific instability appears to be a good overrunning setup as early as Sunday night and lingering into as late as Wednesday once all the possible overrunning aspects are washed out. The large mid-level dry layer should mean Mondays rainfall amounts should come in light, with perhaps much of it virga. The Wednesday period will have the most moisture but the least amount of shear to help with lifting process, and the weak shortwave is already shown to be crossing TX Tuesday. This means Tuesday should be our wettest day of the long range and with continued well below normal high temperatures. The coolest day of the week is expected to be Monday, and evaporative cooling of the rain into dry air could assist with that.

Southeasterly flow returns Tuesday which looks to continue for the rest of the long term period. This will bring a day by day warming trend back to the area with highs returning into the 80s mid-week.
Weak mid-level ridging remains over the area mid to late week keeping precipitation chances low, but disturbances aloft and a dryline in West Texas keep rain chances non-zero through Friday, and potentially signaling a stormy picture for our area next Saturday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

MVFR ceilings have developed in the Austin and San Antonio areas.
Ceilings will drop to IFR later tonight. Ceiling at DRT will drop to MVFR by around sunrise. A cold front will move through the region later this morning turning the winds to the north and bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Occasional showers will continue through the afternoon and evening. Ceilings will gradually improve during the afternoon.
Winds will gust to 25-30 kts starting late morning and continuing through the afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 74 53 74 55 / 60 60 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 53 74 54 / 60 60 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 53 72 54 / 60 70 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 68 48 71 53 / 60 40 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 56 67 55 / 60 30 20 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 50 72 54 / 50 50 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 74 53 67 54 / 50 60 10 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 53 72 54 / 60 70 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 54 72 54 / 60 70 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 54 70 56 / 50 70 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 77 56 70 57 / 50 70 10 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.