Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stuart, FL
July 1, 2024 11:20 AM EDT (15:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 1:36 AM Moonset 3:25 PM |
AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 1018 Am Edt Mon Jul 1 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds and northeast 1 foot at 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 952 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - The atlantic ridge will continue to influence the state of florida through late week. Poor boating conditions are expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing south to southwest winds. A frontal boundary is forecast to ease into central florida and the local atlantic waters Friday night and Saturday then become nearly stationary with scattered showers and lightning storms forecast to develop over the local waters.
Gulf stream hazards - South winds increasing 15 to 20 knots this evening.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday may 6th.
40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
FXUS62 KMLB 011413 AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1013 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
UPDATE
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Sfc analysis shows Atlc ridge axis extends westward across central FL producing a light south flow this morning. A SE sea breeze will develop and push slowly inland. GOES-16 precip water product combined with the early morning radiosonde data from XMR and TBW show that noticeably drier air has moved in the mid and upper levels. This will lead to a much later lower coverage of storms today compared to yesterday. There remains higher moisture across southern sections so the inland moving sea breeze should spark scattered showers/storms over Martin/St Lucie this aftn after collision with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. There is an outflow boundary lifting NW across the Treasure coast/Lake O region from earlier convection offshore S FL. This boundary could spark isolated showers and storms into early aftn but this boundary will likely lose its definition as the east coast sea breeze develops and takes over. A very late collision over the north interior should generate the best chance for rain/storms around and just after sunset.
The only update to the forecast was to lower PoPs through early afternoon across northern sections, esp Lake and Volusia counties.
No significant changes to winds or temps.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- Increasingly hot this week, peaking by the weekend when the heat index could approach 104 to 109 degrees. Residents and visitors should consider steps to stay cool during outdoor plans for Independence Day through the weekend.
- Scattered showers and storms are forecast each day. The highest chances for storms (50-70%) will concentrate over the interior and Greater Orlando area, with lesser coverage along the coast.
- Major Hurricane Beryl is approaching the Caribbean this morning as the tropics remain unusually active for early July. Beryl, and its impacts, are still forecast to stay well south of Florida.
---------Synoptic Overview----------
This evening's upper-air analysis revealed a nearly 600 dam H5 ridge near Dallas, TX. Above-normal heights extend across the entire Sun Belt and into the W Atlantic. A shortwave trough over the eastern Great Lakes will push a cold front into the Deep South this afternoon. It will undergo frontolysis before reaching Florida. A longwave trough near Idaho will work eastward over the next 48 HR, pushing the upper high closer to Florida by midweek. Ensemble guidance suggests this upper high will stall near North Florida through next weekend. This is forecast to protect Florida from any impacts from Hurricane Beryl, which will be forced WNW through the Caribbean Sea.
The near-surface ridge axis will be shunted slightly southward today as the aforementioned front approaches the state. The ridge axis will slowly return northward by the mid and late week before again nudging closer to South Florida late next weekend. Near-to-above- normal PWATs, at times exceeding 2", are forecast through much of the period. 0-3 KM mixing ratios will also hold steady between 12-14 g/kg, which ranges near the 90th percentile to the max moving average for early July. This indicates that rich low-level moisture will remain in place as the south/southeast flow dominates.
In all, this portends a fairly typical rainy-season pattern with daily scattered showers and storms, focusing over the interior on most afternoons. With the upper high nudging closer to Florida, temperatures will turn hotter than normal, introducing a risk of heat-related health impacts, especially for those outdoors during the upcoming Independence holiday and weekend.
-----Sensible Weather & Impacts-----
Today & Tonight...
A bit of patchy ground fog is possible through 8 AM. Later on, the weakening front sagging southward, along with a batch of moisture across SoFlo, will be the foci for shower and storm coverage. This is represented well in our digital forecast, with 50-60% storm chances along the Treasure Coast as well as areas near and north of Orlando. For Daytona Beach to the Space Coast, storm chances are lower, closer to 30-40%; this could be generous. As for timing, HRRR members show scattered storms popping along the Treasure Coast after 2 PM. Near Orlando and points north/west, a fairly late sea breeze collision is expected amid the background southerly flow, so it wouldn't be surprising to see storms holding off until after 4-5 PM and lasting through mid-evening here.
High temperatures will respond to a bit more sunshine and later storm development, with low/mid 90s fairly common. Peak heat indices will reach 101-106F in most locations. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 70s.
Tuesday - Wednesday...
The weak front to our north dissipates but leaves ample moisture over the state. As the surface ridge axis nudges northward, background flow will back toward the southeast once again. Scattered to numerous storms should develop in the afternoon and evening hours, with coverage of 40-50% near the coast and 60-70% over the interior and Greater Orlando areas. Coverage may be slightly more impressive on Tuesday compared to Wednesday as some drier air aloft tries to work in and we begin to feel additional subsidence from the upper high. Low to mid 90s will persist, and so will the sultry humidity. Expect maximum heat index readings to inch slightly higher (102-107F). Pockets of Major HeatRisk will creep into areas north of Interstate 4, indicative of unusually hot and humid conditions even for Florida, and partly driven by overnight low temperatures running 4-7F above normal.
Independence Day - Next Weekend...
Heat-related impacts will drive the weather story for this timeframe, along with at least scattered (30-60%) storm chances.
Our weather will continue to be dominated by the strong upper high, characterized by H5 heights exceeding the 95th percentile of climatology. H85 temperatures rise to around +20C. Boundary layer flow will remain southeast early in this period before subtly veering toward the south late in the weekend. This will continue to draw high humidity out of the tropics, with dew points in the mid 70s F.
Statistical guidance continues to suggest widespread mid 90s over the interior and low/mid 90s along the coast. Peak heat indices are forecast to range from 102-107F for the Fourth of July and Friday before climbing toward 104-109F next weekend. A Heat Advisory (108F) may be warranted for at least some of this timeframe as we get closer in time, especially considering the number of residents and visitors who will be spending time outdoors. Planning to enjoy our beaches, attend holiday celebrations, or visit area attractions? Make sure to pack the water and sunscreen, and expect to need some time in the shade, A/C, or pool!
Much of the troposphere will remain warmer than normal, contributing to relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Through Saturday, the southeasterly flow should hold the higher storm chances over the interior (50-60%), with lesser coverage (30-40%) along the coast.
Storm chances may creep up late in the weekend as the flow veers southerly and mid-level temperatures dip slightly.
A low pressure system in the tropical Atlantic (Invest 96L)
currently has a 70% chance of development as it moves toward the Windward Islands late this week. 30/12Z grand ensemble guidance suggests that the upper high will force this disturbance on a track similar to Beryl into the Caribbean. However, this will be something to monitor over the coming days.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Mainly VFR expected thru the TAF, outside of iso/sct SHRA/TSRA.
Southerly winds back SSE along the coast (10-12 kt) as the sea breeze forms this afternoon and gradually pushes inland. VCTS begins around 18z from VRB south, with a TEMPO at SUA after 20z.
VCTS is also possible from LEE to SFB/MCO/ISM 21z-03z Tue. Activity everywhere will dissipate after 03z-04z Tue.
MARINE
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Today-Friday... An axis of high pressure will move from Central Florida today northward toward the Carolinas by midweek. SSE winds from 10-15 KT today will subside to around 10 KT while shifting slightly toward the SE from Tuesday through the rest of the period.
The daily sea/land breeze circulation will form, locally enhancing breezes in the afternoon and turning winds light southerly or southwesterly during the overnight hours near the coast. A few showers and storms are possible, but a lot of dry time is forecast.
Seas will range 2 FT or less through tomorrow, then 2-3 FT through Friday. Intracoastal and inshore boaters will notice a light to moderate chop.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 94 77 92 77 / 40 40 40 20 MCO 93 77 93 77 / 50 50 70 20 MLB 91 77 91 78 / 40 30 50 20 VRB 91 75 91 77 / 40 30 50 20 LEE 94 78 94 79 / 60 50 70 20 SFB 94 77 94 77 / 50 50 60 20 ORL 94 77 93 78 / 50 50 70 20 FPR 91 75 91 76 / 50 30 50 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1013 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
UPDATE
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Sfc analysis shows Atlc ridge axis extends westward across central FL producing a light south flow this morning. A SE sea breeze will develop and push slowly inland. GOES-16 precip water product combined with the early morning radiosonde data from XMR and TBW show that noticeably drier air has moved in the mid and upper levels. This will lead to a much later lower coverage of storms today compared to yesterday. There remains higher moisture across southern sections so the inland moving sea breeze should spark scattered showers/storms over Martin/St Lucie this aftn after collision with the Lake Okeechobee breeze. There is an outflow boundary lifting NW across the Treasure coast/Lake O region from earlier convection offshore S FL. This boundary could spark isolated showers and storms into early aftn but this boundary will likely lose its definition as the east coast sea breeze develops and takes over. A very late collision over the north interior should generate the best chance for rain/storms around and just after sunset.
The only update to the forecast was to lower PoPs through early afternoon across northern sections, esp Lake and Volusia counties.
No significant changes to winds or temps.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- Increasingly hot this week, peaking by the weekend when the heat index could approach 104 to 109 degrees. Residents and visitors should consider steps to stay cool during outdoor plans for Independence Day through the weekend.
- Scattered showers and storms are forecast each day. The highest chances for storms (50-70%) will concentrate over the interior and Greater Orlando area, with lesser coverage along the coast.
- Major Hurricane Beryl is approaching the Caribbean this morning as the tropics remain unusually active for early July. Beryl, and its impacts, are still forecast to stay well south of Florida.
---------Synoptic Overview----------
This evening's upper-air analysis revealed a nearly 600 dam H5 ridge near Dallas, TX. Above-normal heights extend across the entire Sun Belt and into the W Atlantic. A shortwave trough over the eastern Great Lakes will push a cold front into the Deep South this afternoon. It will undergo frontolysis before reaching Florida. A longwave trough near Idaho will work eastward over the next 48 HR, pushing the upper high closer to Florida by midweek. Ensemble guidance suggests this upper high will stall near North Florida through next weekend. This is forecast to protect Florida from any impacts from Hurricane Beryl, which will be forced WNW through the Caribbean Sea.
The near-surface ridge axis will be shunted slightly southward today as the aforementioned front approaches the state. The ridge axis will slowly return northward by the mid and late week before again nudging closer to South Florida late next weekend. Near-to-above- normal PWATs, at times exceeding 2", are forecast through much of the period. 0-3 KM mixing ratios will also hold steady between 12-14 g/kg, which ranges near the 90th percentile to the max moving average for early July. This indicates that rich low-level moisture will remain in place as the south/southeast flow dominates.
In all, this portends a fairly typical rainy-season pattern with daily scattered showers and storms, focusing over the interior on most afternoons. With the upper high nudging closer to Florida, temperatures will turn hotter than normal, introducing a risk of heat-related health impacts, especially for those outdoors during the upcoming Independence holiday and weekend.
-----Sensible Weather & Impacts-----
Today & Tonight...
A bit of patchy ground fog is possible through 8 AM. Later on, the weakening front sagging southward, along with a batch of moisture across SoFlo, will be the foci for shower and storm coverage. This is represented well in our digital forecast, with 50-60% storm chances along the Treasure Coast as well as areas near and north of Orlando. For Daytona Beach to the Space Coast, storm chances are lower, closer to 30-40%; this could be generous. As for timing, HRRR members show scattered storms popping along the Treasure Coast after 2 PM. Near Orlando and points north/west, a fairly late sea breeze collision is expected amid the background southerly flow, so it wouldn't be surprising to see storms holding off until after 4-5 PM and lasting through mid-evening here.
High temperatures will respond to a bit more sunshine and later storm development, with low/mid 90s fairly common. Peak heat indices will reach 101-106F in most locations. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 70s.
Tuesday - Wednesday...
The weak front to our north dissipates but leaves ample moisture over the state. As the surface ridge axis nudges northward, background flow will back toward the southeast once again. Scattered to numerous storms should develop in the afternoon and evening hours, with coverage of 40-50% near the coast and 60-70% over the interior and Greater Orlando areas. Coverage may be slightly more impressive on Tuesday compared to Wednesday as some drier air aloft tries to work in and we begin to feel additional subsidence from the upper high. Low to mid 90s will persist, and so will the sultry humidity. Expect maximum heat index readings to inch slightly higher (102-107F). Pockets of Major HeatRisk will creep into areas north of Interstate 4, indicative of unusually hot and humid conditions even for Florida, and partly driven by overnight low temperatures running 4-7F above normal.
Independence Day - Next Weekend...
Heat-related impacts will drive the weather story for this timeframe, along with at least scattered (30-60%) storm chances.
Our weather will continue to be dominated by the strong upper high, characterized by H5 heights exceeding the 95th percentile of climatology. H85 temperatures rise to around +20C. Boundary layer flow will remain southeast early in this period before subtly veering toward the south late in the weekend. This will continue to draw high humidity out of the tropics, with dew points in the mid 70s F.
Statistical guidance continues to suggest widespread mid 90s over the interior and low/mid 90s along the coast. Peak heat indices are forecast to range from 102-107F for the Fourth of July and Friday before climbing toward 104-109F next weekend. A Heat Advisory (108F) may be warranted for at least some of this timeframe as we get closer in time, especially considering the number of residents and visitors who will be spending time outdoors. Planning to enjoy our beaches, attend holiday celebrations, or visit area attractions? Make sure to pack the water and sunscreen, and expect to need some time in the shade, A/C, or pool!
Much of the troposphere will remain warmer than normal, contributing to relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Through Saturday, the southeasterly flow should hold the higher storm chances over the interior (50-60%), with lesser coverage (30-40%) along the coast.
Storm chances may creep up late in the weekend as the flow veers southerly and mid-level temperatures dip slightly.
A low pressure system in the tropical Atlantic (Invest 96L)
currently has a 70% chance of development as it moves toward the Windward Islands late this week. 30/12Z grand ensemble guidance suggests that the upper high will force this disturbance on a track similar to Beryl into the Caribbean. However, this will be something to monitor over the coming days.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 740 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Mainly VFR expected thru the TAF, outside of iso/sct SHRA/TSRA.
Southerly winds back SSE along the coast (10-12 kt) as the sea breeze forms this afternoon and gradually pushes inland. VCTS begins around 18z from VRB south, with a TEMPO at SUA after 20z.
VCTS is also possible from LEE to SFB/MCO/ISM 21z-03z Tue. Activity everywhere will dissipate after 03z-04z Tue.
MARINE
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024
Today-Friday... An axis of high pressure will move from Central Florida today northward toward the Carolinas by midweek. SSE winds from 10-15 KT today will subside to around 10 KT while shifting slightly toward the SE from Tuesday through the rest of the period.
The daily sea/land breeze circulation will form, locally enhancing breezes in the afternoon and turning winds light southerly or southwesterly during the overnight hours near the coast. A few showers and storms are possible, but a lot of dry time is forecast.
Seas will range 2 FT or less through tomorrow, then 2-3 FT through Friday. Intracoastal and inshore boaters will notice a light to moderate chop.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 94 77 92 77 / 40 40 40 20 MCO 93 77 93 77 / 50 50 70 20 MLB 91 77 91 78 / 40 30 50 20 VRB 91 75 91 77 / 40 30 50 20 LEE 94 78 94 79 / 60 50 70 20 SFB 94 77 94 77 / 50 50 60 20 ORL 94 77 93 78 / 50 50 70 20 FPR 91 75 91 76 / 50 30 50 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) | 24 mi | 54 min | 84°F | 1 ft | ||||
| LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL | 42 mi | 50 min | SSE 11G | 81°F | 84°F | 30.03 | ||
| SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI | 75 mi | 80 min | SSW 7G | 81°F | 30.03 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSUA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUA
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUA
Wind History graph: SUA
(wind in knots)Stuart
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:16 AM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:35 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:30 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT 0.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:40 PM EDT -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT 0.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:16 AM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:35 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:30 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT 0.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:40 PM EDT -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT 0.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Stuart, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| -0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Seminole Shores
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:35 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 04:06 AM EDT 2.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:02 PM EDT 3.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:12 PM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:35 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 04:06 AM EDT 2.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:02 PM EDT 3.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:12 PM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Seminole Shores, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 1.5 |
| 2 am |
| 2.1 |
| 3 am |
| 2.7 |
| 4 am |
| 2.9 |
| 5 am |
| 2.7 |
| 6 am |
| 2.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.1 |
| 10 am |
| -0.3 |
| 11 am |
| -0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Melbourne, FL,
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