Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stuart, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 148 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida's weather continues to be influenced by a weak mid-level low over Georgia. It has become fully cut off from the jet stream and is moving very little. Negative surface pressure anomalies immediately north of Central Florida continue to provide south-southwesterly background flow over the peninsula. A reservoir of above-normal total moisture (PWATS > 2") remains overhead.

Over the next couple of days, the disturbance over Georgia will fill and weaken further as the Bermuda high expands westward toward the Mid-Atlantic states. Consequently, the surface high-pressure axis is forecast to quickly move northward during this period, reaching Central Florida on Wednesday before lifting over the Deep South by Thursday. This will allow onshore flow to develop from the Atlantic. In this regime, moisture values may dip slightly but hold at or just above seasonal norms.

The 03/12Z ensemble suite continues to track an inverted trough westward and toward the Southeast U.S. by Thursday night or Friday. Considerable disagreement remains regarding its track and sharpness as it approaches the coast. Taken together, a surge of higher moisture should pass near or over Central Florida on Friday and Saturday.

From Sunday into early next week, cluster analysis shows strong agreement that the Bermuda high will flatten and stretch westward over the Gulf and Florida. This would likely nudge the surface high pressure axis southward, perhaps reaching very close to our latitude by Monday. Somewhat drier air, associated with an approaching Saharan Air Layer (SAL), may impinge on South Florida in about a week.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

Offshore flow weakens through the day, but should still be sufficient to steer storms toward the northeast. It may also push a few showers toward the I-4 corridor and points northward in the morning hours. By afternoon, the lighter flow should allow the Atlantic sea breeze to form and push near or west of I-95 from Brevard County and points south. Hi-res guidance indicates that scattered storms and outflows will form over the interior as we heat up and destabilize by early afternoon. Once this activity approaches the sea breeze, additional storm development appears likely along the coast in the mid to late afternoon. Overall, rain and storm chances should range from 60-70% over the interior to 70-80% along the coast today.

Wet microbursts producing wind gusts from 40-50 mph will be the primary hazard, along with frequent lightning. As in past days, there is a 5-10% chance for 3-4" rainfall amounts, which could cause some minor flooding in urban and poorly drained locales.

Seasonably hot today with highs in the low 90s and heat indices from 100-105. Most areas look to dry out tonight, but a few showers may skirt the Treasure Coast before daybreak.

Wednesday - Thursday...

As high pressure quickly moves northward, a pattern change arrives in Central Florida. An increasingly dominant Atlantic sea breeze and onshore flow is expected, shifting the highest rain and storm chances toward the interior and west coast. Still, we expect a 30-50% chance of showers and storms along the east coast, mainly in the morning and early afternoon. Interior locations should see 50-70% coverage. Brief gusty winds from 40-50 mph and torrential rainfall will remain the top concerns with these storms. Highs should range from the upper 80s beachside to the lower 90s over the interior.

Friday - Saturday...

By Friday morning, moisture should increase as the easterly wave (inverted trough) moves toward the state. As mentioned in the overview, the sharpness and trajectory of the wave will influence how organized showers and storms will be with this feature. We will maintain 60-80% rain chances through this period, with activity most common at the coast in the morning hours before shifting over the interior. We'll need to monitor trends closely for any training bands of rainfall, but it's too early to get into these specifics.

Easterly flow will be enhanced during this timeframe, causing choppy surf and an increased risk of life-threatening rip currents at our beaches to end the week. Seasonably warm to hot temperatures remain in the forecast, though it may end up a touch cooler, especially at the coast due to the brisk onshore flow.

Sunday - Early Next Week...

Guidance largely agrees that the surge of moisture associated with the aforementioned wave will lift northward and away from Central and South Florida by Sunday and especially Monday. However, moisture values should only tick down to near-normal values for mid-August. With a robust sea breeze circulation expected, scattered storms (30-60%) should still form each day - with the greatest coverage over the interior.

As deep-layer ridging parks over Florida, temperatures may trend a bit hotter, into the low and mid 90s. This will be accompanied by very muggy conditions.

MARINE
Issued at 148 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Weakening low pressure remains situated over the Deep South today. Another round of storms is forecast to develop and push offshore this afternoon and evening. Beginning Wednesday, high pressure is expected to build northward over Central Florida. It should continue to lift northward on Thursday and Friday, with onshore breezes freshening late in the work week. A trough approaches from the open Atlantic by Friday, which may briefly produce poor boating conditions.

Winds become SSE today and into Wednesday, up to 12 kt. By Thursday, winds turn easterly 10-15 kt, then freshening to 15-20 kt in the Gulf Stream on Thursday night and early Friday. Seas 1-2 ft through Wednesday, 2-4 ft on Thursday, and 4-5 ft by Friday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Isold SHRA continue to drift NE from the Gulf coast so will start off with VCSH at LEE/MCO/ISM. SCT SHRA/TSRA are forecast to redevelop this afternoon with the highest coverage near/over the coastal terminals invof the east coast sea breeze boundary. Have inserted TEMPOs for MVFR TS beginning at 19Z MLB-SUA. This area should also hold the greatest potential for gusty winds 35 knots or greater. Slightly earlier onset of TEMPOs for MCO (18Z) and LEE (16Z) but there may be some redevelopment this evening near MCO as outflow kicks back to the west. S/SW flow 6-9 knots.
Coastal terminals will switch SE 10-12 knots behind the sea breeze in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 89 74 89 76 / 70 30 30 10 MCO 90 75 91 75 / 70 30 50 10 MLB 90 76 88 77 / 80 30 40 20 VRB 89 75 88 76 / 80 30 50 20 LEE 89 75 90 76 / 70 30 50 20 SFB 90 75 91 76 / 70 30 50 10 ORL 90 75 91 76 / 70 30 50 10 FPR 89 74 88 76 / 80 40 50 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.