Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 9:04 PM Moonrise 2:26 AM   Moonset 3:53 PM

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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 335 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. A slight chance of showers early. Patchy fog late. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - East winds 10 knots or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 69 degrees, off cleveland 63 degrees, and off erie 63 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 022325 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 725 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure over the Central Great Lakes will weaken overnight as high pressure builds in from the west. A warm front will lift north across the area late Monday. A cold front extending from low pressure north of the Great Lakes will move east across the area late Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
700 pm update...
We made some minor adjustments to the hourly POPs 22z and 06z this evening to better reflect the latest radar trends. We have maintained 15 to 25 percent POPs through mid evening for a few isolated rain showers. Going forward into the overnight, areas of fog will develop. There is still some uncertainty on how widespread and how thick the fog may become late tonight into early Monday morning.

Previous discussion...
Breaks in the clouds across NW Ohio have allowed a minimal amount of instability to develop. Regional radars show scattered showers filling back in ahead of and along the front. Left a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast mainly west of a line from Cleveland to Akron but chances of thunder are pretty low given warming in the mid- levels and meager instability. ML CAPE may reach as high as 500 J/kg early this evening though so a slight chance remains. With that said, did raise pops slightly and linger them into the evening an extra hour or two as several 12Z CAMs show these showers holding together to the east through sunset.

Surface low pressure will be overcome by high pressure building in from the west tonight. Winds will be very light or calm and high boundary layer moisture with dewpoints near 60 degrees will result in fog formation. Breaks developing in the clouds will lead to cooling and fog or stratus filling in overnight. Models are in good agreement that the coverage of fog will be pretty good in areas from Mansfield to Akron to Youngstown that have less opportunity to mix out early this evening. Dewpoints are slightly lower behind the front in SW Lower Michigan but is unclear if these will reach the area before winds drop off. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed overnight or early Monday morning depending on the coverage and extent of the dense fog.

Fog will tend to lift on Monday morning with clouds scattering out through the afternoon. A shortwave ridge will be overhead with a capping inversion in place. Only concern for a brief shower might be along the lake breeze, primarily in NW Pennsylvania where surface convergence looks a little stronger during the early afternoon.
Included a 20 pop in this area but most of the day will be dry.
Southerly flow and warm advection will push temperatures into the upper 70s(east) to low 80s(west) on Monday. Shortwave energy rounds the ridge across the Upper Great Lakes on Monday night. Moisture return is focused across Michigan along the warm front but low levels do not seem to moisten enough in Ohio to need a pop for Monday night. Lows temperatures trend upwards a few more degrees as we head into a warm stretch for first half of this week.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Mainly quiet weather on Tuesday will become more active by Wednesday as an upper-level trough moves east through the Great Lakes, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

An upper-level ridge will reside across the Eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday which should largely keep precipitation chances at bay. Only exception may be an isolated shower/storm associated with a lake breeze Tuesday afternoon, though even this potential appears low given dry mid-levels. Tuesday will feature the warmest temperatures of the foreseeable future with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

An upper-level trough will slide east across the Great Lakes on Wednesday and is expected to weaken as it becomes cut-off from the main jet energy. Nonetheless, favorable low-level moisture combined with lift from the trough will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Mid-level flow of 25 to 30 knots (0-3 SRH ~100 m2/s2) could support some stronger storms/bowing segments with primarily a wind threat, although we're not looking at anything too widespread or organized at this time given weak mid-level lapse rates <6 C/km in addition to abundant cloud cover which should limit the MLCAPE. Area soundings do favor a heavy rain threat with any stronger storms given PWATs between 1.60 and 1.80 inches, skinny CAPE profiles, and warm cloud depths >10kft.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The aforementioned upper-level low will become cut-off sometime Wednesday night into Thursday as it slowly meanders across the Eastern Great Lakes through much of the weekend, becoming trapped within an upper-level "Omega Block" pattern. This will allow multiple shortwave disturbances to impact the region through the weekend, with the pattern resembling that more of early Spring versus early Summer. The forecast in the long term will favor slightly below-average temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s, periodic rain showers with occasional thunderstorms during the day, and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
The main aviation weather concern for this TAF period will be the potential for low ceilings and areas of dense fog possible late tonight into early Monday morning.

Conditions are starting off this evening with VFR to MVFR ceilings across much of northern Ohio and NWPA. Some parts of NWOH have cleared out from the clouds this evening. With recent rainfall today and wet grounds, there will be the potential for areas of fog and low stratus to redevelop later tonight into early Monday morning. We have this potential outlined in the TAFs mainly after 06z overnight through about 13z Monday morning. There is still some uncertainty of the fog development and how widespread or thick it may become. We have all TAF sites reaching IFR to LIFR conditions after 06z through about 12z or 13z. We will maintain 1sm BR and broken at 500 feet with a TEMPO ground between 08z and 12z of 1/2sm fg and broken at 300 feet possible. Any fog and low stratus should burn off relatively quickly Monday morning after 13z quickly becoming VFR by late morning through the rest of the day. Scattered high clouds and scattered CU at 3500 feet will be around Monday afternoon. Winds will be light and variably under 5 knots tonight into Monday morning. Winds will become southerly around 5 knots later Monday morning through the afternoon. There will likely be a lake breeze for CLE and ERI midday to early afternoon on Monday.

Outlook...Thunderstorms and associated non-VFR possible at times Tuesday through Friday.

MARINE
A mainly quiet marine period is in store through much of the week as winds are expected to be less than 20 knots, favoring an offshore direction. Some patchy fog may develop across the central and eastern basins of the Lake tonight. A few stronger storms with primarily a wind threat are possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening as an upper-level trough swings east across the region. The wind direction will become more westerly by Thursday and Friday, around 15 knots, which could bring some 3 to perhaps 4-footers across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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