Sunrise 5:21 AM   Sunset 9:04 PM Moonrise 12:46 PM   Moonset 12:41 AM

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PZZ250 Coastal Waters From Cape Shoalwater Wa To Cascade Head Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog in the morning. Areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - NW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves nw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Wed night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - NE wind to 5 kt, backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves ne 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 217 Am Pdt Fri Jun 14 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - A very weak system is in the process of moving in across the region, possibly bringing a vfr cloud deck and light coastal showers. However, a relatively more robust system will move across the region late Friday and into the weekend. Which will result in a slightly more active weather pattern.

FXUS66 KPQR 141737 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1037 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Updated Aviation Discussion

SYNOPSIS
A bit cooler today, as weakening front arrives. Unsettled weather for the weekend, with onshore flow, clouds and even showers.
High pressure rebuilds offshore early next week, with dry and mild weather returning towards middle of next week.

Key Messages...

- Cooler, with increasing clouds today. Chance of showers along the coast (Tillamook northward) and west Washington.

- Showers Saturday through Monday. A small chance (15-25%)
of afternoon/evening thunderstorms on Sat and maybe Sun.

- High pressure builds next week, bringing dry and warm conditions back to the region later next week.

SHORT TERM
Now through Sunday...Today is a transition day, with increasing onshore flow. This will result in cooler temperatures today, along with breezy westerly winds over the high terrain, as well as through the Columbia Gorge. A weak front offshore push onshore today, but not much in way of any precipitation, aside from a few showers along the coast.

Broad upper trough offshore and over the Gulf of Alaska will push into the Pac NW Fri night and Sat. As such, will see bit cooler air aloft, with showers increasing. But, overall, precipitation amounts not all that impressive, with most areas getting 0.10 inch or less.
Given potential of breaks in the clouds on Sat, could see a few 'beefier' showers, with potential of bit more rain. Add to that, may get enough instability to support a few thunderstorms. Will maintain current forecasts, with little change.

More clouds around the region on Sat, than to continued moderate to strong onshore flow. Still, will maintain high chance of showers as upper level disturbance in the westerly flow shifts inland and over the inland Pac NW. Will keep small (15-25%) chance of thunderstorms, but bit question will be whether or not will get enough breaks in the clouds to boost low level warming, and hence any steepening of lapse rates. With more warming, better the chance of a few thunderstorms, while less sun breaks and thus less warming, the lower the potential for thunderstorms. Based on current trends, any thunderstorms likely to remain rather isolated at best on Sat.
Showers decreasing Sat night.

Sunday remains to be challenging forecast. Some models still have somewhat unstable air mass over the region, supporting showers. But, more recent runs of GFS and NAM models indicate decent potential of showers, given upper trough shifting overhead. But, does seem this potential decreasing through the day, given main upper support is swinging east of the Cascades. WIll make no big changes in forecasts, but if trends continue, Sunday could be more dry than current expected. But, still plenty of clouds and coolish.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)...Still have upper trough over the region on Monday, with continued showers. By Tuesday, most models (GFS, UKMET and ECMWF) show upper trough shifting well east of the Cascades. So, shower potential will end in the afternoon for most all areas except the Cascades. High pressure offshore will build again for middle of next week, bringing return of dry weather. Overall air mass will gradually warm again, with return of bit warmer than normal temperatures. Will trend to 60s along the coast, and 70s inland.

AVIATION
VFR conditions continue for most locations across the airspace. However, a series of fronts are expected to impact the region. The first front will be relatively weak and will slowly move eastward across the airspace today. Expect MVFR conditions for KAST starting around 18Z Friday and those MVFR conditions slowly spreading southward and will likely reach KONP around 22Z Friday. There will also be a 15%-25% probability for IFR conditions to develop starting between 18Z-22Z Friday along the coast. The coast is expected to maintain the MVFR/IFR conditions through at least 18Z Saturday as the second stronger front will start to move across the airspace around 06Z Saturday. These fronts will bring showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms (25% probability) for KAST starting around 06Z Saturday, then spreading southward and reaching KONP around 14Z Saturday.

The first front reaches northern, inland locations around 20Z Friday and will result in a mixture of low-end VFR/high-end MVFR conditions with cigs likely oscillating between FL030 and FL040 for areas north of KMMV/KUAO along with light showers. Areas south will likely maintain VFR conditions with FL040 or greater with no precipitation expected. The second, stronger system will impact inland locations starting around 06Z-09Z Saturday and will likely maintain the low-end VFR/high-end MVFR mixture along with widespread showers. This second front will also result in a slight chance of thunderstorms (25% probability) for areas north of KCVO starting around 15Z Saturday.

Any thunderstorms will have the potential to produce small hail along with gusty and erratic winds.

Southerly winds across the airspace will become more westerly after the first frontal passage.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR under clear skies will transition to a mixture of low-end VFR/high-end MVFR conditions with cigs likely oscillating between FL030 and FL040 as a series of fronts move eastward through 18Z Saturday. Look for this transition to start around 00Z Saturday as the first, weaker front crosses the terminal. This first front will also bring light showers. Second, stronger front will maintain oscillating FLs and also result in a slight chance of thunderstorms (25% probability) starting around 15Z Saturday. /42

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory has ended for all waters, and winds are currently near zero. Seas are currently around 5-7 ft at 11 seconds, and swells should not change much over the next few days.
A weak front will bring some slightly stronger southerly winds Friday morning, and will be followed by a stronger front around midnight Friday night. This marks a return to relatively stronger, westerly winds across all waters. Seas will be slightly elevated Saturday due to this front, rising to 5 to 7 ft on Sunday, before subsiding again towards 4 to 6 ft by the start of the upcoming week. /42/JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

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Nehalem
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Fri -- 01:41 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:40 AM PDT     1.98 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:25 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM PDT     4.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:46 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:16 PM PDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:32 PM PDT     5.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet

Garibaldi
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Fri -- 01:41 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:00 AM PDT     2.64 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:26 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:14 AM PDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:36 PM PDT     1.27 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:46 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:29 PM PDT     6.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Garibaldi, Oregon (2), Tide feet

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