Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Maple City, MI
July 3, 2024 5:30 AM EDT (09:30 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 9:25 PM Moonrise 2:26 AM Moonset 7:05 PM |
LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- 410 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Today - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight - Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ300
No data
No data
FXUS63 KAPX 030759 CCA AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 359 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Most widespread rain departs this morning. Perhaps a chance of showers/storms this afternoon/evening, mainly eastern upper.
- Looking dry for the Independence Day holiday.
- Showers and storms are expected to continue at times this weekend and next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 347 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Pattern/synopsis: Low pressure in far nw Ontario, extends a cold front sse-ward across western upper MI and eastern WI.
Trailing boundaries are found in ne MN and nw MN. One of those crosses into upper MI late today.
Forecast: Well-defined MCV pushed an MCS across northern MI in the late evening and early overnight hours. Trailing band of associated convection is over ne lower MI. Continued warm/moist advection is supporting additional showers pushing into western areas, but this activity is lacking instability. Expect that to comprise the final area of precip (for now). The back edge will clear nw lower MI early this morning, and central and eastern areas (including eastern upper MI) by noon. Partial clearing follows by 2-3 hours.
However, cool/dry advection is weak at low levels, and surface dew points will be maintained in the low-mid 60s today. Mid- level drying and weak capping should be enough to keep a lid on things in northern lower MI. But stronger sub-850mb convergence will be found in the UP, along with cooler temps aloft. Spotty convection is likely to develop by late afternoon down the length of upper MI. MlCape values will push 500j/kg, with 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kt. Instability is the main limiting factor for stronger convection, and am thinking severe storms are unlikely over land. But perhaps a Special Marine Warning or two is possible in the waters around eastern upper MI late this afternoon into this evening.
How far s and e will a rain threat get this evening? CAMs are generally inclined to kick off additional convection in nw/n central lower MI, after dark. This might be ambitious, given fading instability with time. But did mention a slight chance of a shower late this evening in parts of northern lower MI (north of an mbL-APN line). Otherwise partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, and some patchy fog overnight.
Max temps today mid 70s to mid 80s. Lows tonight upper 50s to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 347 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:
Split flow midlevel pattern spanning across North America will continue active weather at times for the entirety of the long term forecast period. Northern branch flow over the Canadian Provinces will push midlevel shortwaves into the Great Lakes region this weekend and early next week resulting in a cool and (relatively) wet stretch of weather for the first week in July.
The first shortwave will progress into the Upper Midwest as early as Thursday evening, developing surface low pressure along with attached frontal boundaries. Showers and storms will persist Friday into mainly Saturday before another upstream trough lowers into the region next Tuesday. Large scale low pressure over Canada will deepen by midweek next week and transition the northern CONUS to a longwave troughing pattern through the remainder of the forecast period.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Dry conditions expected at the start of the long term (Thursday/Independence Day). Conditions quickly return to a wetter pattern this weekend: Current upstream shortwave ridging will continue into the first day of the long term. Luckily for everyone planning on enjoying the holiday, Independence Day looks to remain dry, but upstream aformentioned troughing will build cloud cover Thursday evening before returning showers and storms as early as Friday morning. Biggest impact from this event will be most locations seeing decent rainfall amounts from the efficient transport of Gulf moisture into the Great Lakes region. Most locations can expect a general half inch or so of QPF, but locations near Lake Michigan can see higher amounts as PWATs are expected to climb up to near climatological max. WPC placed Northern Michigan under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, but the risk of flooding here will remain small.
Showers and storms are expected to continue at times next week...Aformentioned continued midlevel pattern of troughing next week will continue a quasi-active weather pattern to the Great Lakes region next week. Best chance of rainfall will be on Tuesday and Thursday as weak surface level low pressure continues scatted showers at times for the remainder of the long term.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1156 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Rain and embedded rumbles of thunder continue to spread across northern Michigan as associated CIGs will lower tonight, and are expected to drop to MVFR across most of the area shortly after 06Z.
IFR CIGs are also anticipated for many areas late tonight into Wednesday morning. Brief drops to MVFR VSBYs will be possible within heavier rainfall. Strong winds just off the surface lead to the inclusion of LLWS across all northern lower Michigan TAF sites into Wednesday morning. Cloud cover will clear from west to east as rain chances depart Wednesday morning, leaving VFR conditions in place from late morning/early afternoon Wednesday through the end of the issuance period.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 359 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Most widespread rain departs this morning. Perhaps a chance of showers/storms this afternoon/evening, mainly eastern upper.
- Looking dry for the Independence Day holiday.
- Showers and storms are expected to continue at times this weekend and next week.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 347 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Pattern/synopsis: Low pressure in far nw Ontario, extends a cold front sse-ward across western upper MI and eastern WI.
Trailing boundaries are found in ne MN and nw MN. One of those crosses into upper MI late today.
Forecast: Well-defined MCV pushed an MCS across northern MI in the late evening and early overnight hours. Trailing band of associated convection is over ne lower MI. Continued warm/moist advection is supporting additional showers pushing into western areas, but this activity is lacking instability. Expect that to comprise the final area of precip (for now). The back edge will clear nw lower MI early this morning, and central and eastern areas (including eastern upper MI) by noon. Partial clearing follows by 2-3 hours.
However, cool/dry advection is weak at low levels, and surface dew points will be maintained in the low-mid 60s today. Mid- level drying and weak capping should be enough to keep a lid on things in northern lower MI. But stronger sub-850mb convergence will be found in the UP, along with cooler temps aloft. Spotty convection is likely to develop by late afternoon down the length of upper MI. MlCape values will push 500j/kg, with 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kt. Instability is the main limiting factor for stronger convection, and am thinking severe storms are unlikely over land. But perhaps a Special Marine Warning or two is possible in the waters around eastern upper MI late this afternoon into this evening.
How far s and e will a rain threat get this evening? CAMs are generally inclined to kick off additional convection in nw/n central lower MI, after dark. This might be ambitious, given fading instability with time. But did mention a slight chance of a shower late this evening in parts of northern lower MI (north of an mbL-APN line). Otherwise partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, and some patchy fog overnight.
Max temps today mid 70s to mid 80s. Lows tonight upper 50s to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 347 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:
Split flow midlevel pattern spanning across North America will continue active weather at times for the entirety of the long term forecast period. Northern branch flow over the Canadian Provinces will push midlevel shortwaves into the Great Lakes region this weekend and early next week resulting in a cool and (relatively) wet stretch of weather for the first week in July.
The first shortwave will progress into the Upper Midwest as early as Thursday evening, developing surface low pressure along with attached frontal boundaries. Showers and storms will persist Friday into mainly Saturday before another upstream trough lowers into the region next Tuesday. Large scale low pressure over Canada will deepen by midweek next week and transition the northern CONUS to a longwave troughing pattern through the remainder of the forecast period.
Primary Forecast Concerns:
Dry conditions expected at the start of the long term (Thursday/Independence Day). Conditions quickly return to a wetter pattern this weekend: Current upstream shortwave ridging will continue into the first day of the long term. Luckily for everyone planning on enjoying the holiday, Independence Day looks to remain dry, but upstream aformentioned troughing will build cloud cover Thursday evening before returning showers and storms as early as Friday morning. Biggest impact from this event will be most locations seeing decent rainfall amounts from the efficient transport of Gulf moisture into the Great Lakes region. Most locations can expect a general half inch or so of QPF, but locations near Lake Michigan can see higher amounts as PWATs are expected to climb up to near climatological max. WPC placed Northern Michigan under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, but the risk of flooding here will remain small.
Showers and storms are expected to continue at times next week...Aformentioned continued midlevel pattern of troughing next week will continue a quasi-active weather pattern to the Great Lakes region next week. Best chance of rainfall will be on Tuesday and Thursday as weak surface level low pressure continues scatted showers at times for the remainder of the long term.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1156 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Rain and embedded rumbles of thunder continue to spread across northern Michigan as associated CIGs will lower tonight, and are expected to drop to MVFR across most of the area shortly after 06Z.
IFR CIGs are also anticipated for many areas late tonight into Wednesday morning. Brief drops to MVFR VSBYs will be possible within heavier rainfall. Strong winds just off the surface lead to the inclusion of LLWS across all northern lower Michigan TAF sites into Wednesday morning. Cloud cover will clear from west to east as rain chances depart Wednesday morning, leaving VFR conditions in place from late morning/early afternoon Wednesday through the end of the issuance period.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTVC
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTVC
Wind History graph: TVC
(wind in knots)
Gaylord, MI,
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