Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Knoxville, TN
July 3, 2024 4:25 PM EDT (20:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:22 AM Sunset 8:57 PM Moonrise 2:53 AM Moonset 6:19 PM |
Area Discussion for - Morristown, TN
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FXUS64 KMRX 031946 AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 346 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Key Messages:
1. Hot and more humid conditions expected for 4th of July.
2. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening tomorrow with better chances across the plateau, VA mtns, and parts of the Appalachians.
Discussion:
Overnight lows tonight will remain on the mild side as high clouds are forecast according to the NBM and CAMs such as HRRR as well.
For tomorrow, expect temperatures and dew point values to be a few degrees warmer, so heat indices will be a bit higher with low 100s possible in parts of the middle and southern valley. Though it will not suffice a Heat Advisory issuance.
Into tomorrow, the SE ridge and surface high pressure over the same general area will become suppressed a bit leading to heights lowering some. Chances of thunderstorm activity does return tomorrow, but is on the low confidence side of things as far as location and coverage. Not much in the way of lift or deep layer shear to even initiate and sustain thunderstorms. Diurnal heating may be the main trigger for any sort of development. However, moisture will be a non-issue as well as instability, with CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg along northwestern parts of the forecast area. This aligns with SPC's thinking of keeping the same area under a marginal risk for severe storms.
The forecast initially went too heavy on dew points and PoPs. So a lot was cut down or back. The entire forecast area will at least have an isolated chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm, but have limited the increased chance of scattered covg across the plateau region into SW VA and parts of the Appalachians. Any activity will begin across the northwest part of the CWA around mid morning hours and increase in probability with time into the afternoon and evening. Any storm that becomes strong to marginally severe, will only run the risk of lightning, heavy downpours, and possible gusty winds.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Key Messages:
1. Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday and Friday night with a frontal passage, then dry weather returns during the weekend.
2. Chance PoPs return to the forecast in the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday time frame with an approaching upper trough.
Discussion:
Friday will feature a low pressure system moving across the Upper MS Valley to Great Lakes region, with a high pressure ridge off the Atlantic coastline. Ample low level moisture will spread into the area with the southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. The NAM shows abundant MLCAPE Friday afternoon, in the range of 2000-3000 J/kg, which suggests a potential for some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms, although weak deep layer shear will be a limiting factor in this potential. Most of this activity will be focused along a pre-frontal trough that moves through late Friday afternoon/early Friday evening time frame, with the cold frontal passage occurring after midnight. A drier air mass will build into the area on Saturday, with the deterministic models showing the front well to our east by the afternoon. The NBM holds high chance to likely PoPs in the area for Saturday, and this will be cut back to align with a faster frontal passage.
A dry westerly to northwesterly low level flow will provide lower dewpoints on Sunday. The cold front will be stalled to our south, with a surface high over the OH Valley and central Appalachians. By Monday the high will shift to the New England coastline, and a southerly flow develops that spreads increasing moisture back into the area and increasing temperatures. A broad trough in the mid/upper levels will be over the Plains. The NBM PoPs of scattered showers and thunderstorms appears reasonable for Monday through Wednesday, and will not be changed.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR generally expected through the period. MVFR at CHA eroded recently, thus hanging on longer than thought. CIGS should continue to scatter and lift with time overnight. Winds become calm overnight. The best outside chance of a shower or storm tomorrow would be near TRI, but do not have anything in the TAF due to it being towards the very end of the TAF and model inconsistency and confidence are on the lower end.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 95 78 93 / 0 30 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 93 76 92 / 0 30 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 74 94 75 91 / 0 30 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 93 71 90 / 10 50 20 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 346 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Key Messages:
1. Hot and more humid conditions expected for 4th of July.
2. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening tomorrow with better chances across the plateau, VA mtns, and parts of the Appalachians.
Discussion:
Overnight lows tonight will remain on the mild side as high clouds are forecast according to the NBM and CAMs such as HRRR as well.
For tomorrow, expect temperatures and dew point values to be a few degrees warmer, so heat indices will be a bit higher with low 100s possible in parts of the middle and southern valley. Though it will not suffice a Heat Advisory issuance.
Into tomorrow, the SE ridge and surface high pressure over the same general area will become suppressed a bit leading to heights lowering some. Chances of thunderstorm activity does return tomorrow, but is on the low confidence side of things as far as location and coverage. Not much in the way of lift or deep layer shear to even initiate and sustain thunderstorms. Diurnal heating may be the main trigger for any sort of development. However, moisture will be a non-issue as well as instability, with CAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg along northwestern parts of the forecast area. This aligns with SPC's thinking of keeping the same area under a marginal risk for severe storms.
The forecast initially went too heavy on dew points and PoPs. So a lot was cut down or back. The entire forecast area will at least have an isolated chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm, but have limited the increased chance of scattered covg across the plateau region into SW VA and parts of the Appalachians. Any activity will begin across the northwest part of the CWA around mid morning hours and increase in probability with time into the afternoon and evening. Any storm that becomes strong to marginally severe, will only run the risk of lightning, heavy downpours, and possible gusty winds.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
Key Messages:
1. Increasing chances for showers and storms Friday and Friday night with a frontal passage, then dry weather returns during the weekend.
2. Chance PoPs return to the forecast in the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday time frame with an approaching upper trough.
Discussion:
Friday will feature a low pressure system moving across the Upper MS Valley to Great Lakes region, with a high pressure ridge off the Atlantic coastline. Ample low level moisture will spread into the area with the southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico. The NAM shows abundant MLCAPE Friday afternoon, in the range of 2000-3000 J/kg, which suggests a potential for some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms, although weak deep layer shear will be a limiting factor in this potential. Most of this activity will be focused along a pre-frontal trough that moves through late Friday afternoon/early Friday evening time frame, with the cold frontal passage occurring after midnight. A drier air mass will build into the area on Saturday, with the deterministic models showing the front well to our east by the afternoon. The NBM holds high chance to likely PoPs in the area for Saturday, and this will be cut back to align with a faster frontal passage.
A dry westerly to northwesterly low level flow will provide lower dewpoints on Sunday. The cold front will be stalled to our south, with a surface high over the OH Valley and central Appalachians. By Monday the high will shift to the New England coastline, and a southerly flow develops that spreads increasing moisture back into the area and increasing temperatures. A broad trough in the mid/upper levels will be over the Plains. The NBM PoPs of scattered showers and thunderstorms appears reasonable for Monday through Wednesday, and will not be changed.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
VFR generally expected through the period. MVFR at CHA eroded recently, thus hanging on longer than thought. CIGS should continue to scatter and lift with time overnight. Winds become calm overnight. The best outside chance of a shower or storm tomorrow would be near TRI, but do not have anything in the TAF due to it being towards the very end of the TAF and model inconsistency and confidence are on the lower end.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Chattanooga Airport, TN 77 95 78 93 / 0 30 20 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 75 93 76 92 / 0 30 20 60 Oak Ridge, TN 74 94 75 91 / 0 30 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 93 71 90 / 10 50 20 60
MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KTYS
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTYS
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KTYS
Wind History graph: TYS
(wind in knots)
Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN,
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