Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 2:20 AM   Moonset 6:23 PM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 909 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy late this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds 10 knots or less. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 75 degrees, off cleveland 71 degrees, and off erie 71 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KPBZ 030757 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 357 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase later today and the risk will hang around through Friday as a series of upper level disturbances cross the region. Expect well above normal temperature through the holiday weekend, with dry weather returning Saturday and Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Risk for scattered showers and storms increases later this afternoon.
- Well above normal temperatures.

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The eastern ridge will flatten today as a couple of upper level waves cross the region. The first will move across the north late this morning and early this afternoon. Do not expect much rain with the first wave as much of its energy will be used to displace the ridge. It will likely bring an increase in high clouds and cu. A second wave, further south of the first one, will cross late this afternoon and evening. This wave should spark scattered convection, moving it across Ohio late this afternoon and reaching western PA by early evening. Latest CAM models are showing an unorganized line of convection that weakens as it moves eastward. This is mainly due to a lack of surface based instability and a cap thanks to very warm air aloft. There will be descent shear, so this will help to strengthen updrafts if they can mature.

Warm air advection will be ongoing throughout the day which will push high temperatures into the upper 80s to near 90 today.
Surface dewpoints will also be increasing, so it will get rather muggy.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight and Thursday, with low probability threat of severe weather.
- More widespread storm coverage expected Friday.

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Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible tonight as the shortwave exits northeast and a weak front sinks into northern PA. Loss of heating should limit severe potential, with storms continuing to rely on elevated instability.

Thursday will feature additional convection along a slowly crossing boundary that may stall and somewhat washout over the region late in the day. A shortwave will cross and help to push the front southward, but it will be difficult with the zonal flow aloft.

Localized flash flooding remains a concern given near-record PWAT values and near parallel upper flow with the surface boundary; however, marginal instability and weak lapse rates may limit maximization of rainfall rates. Thursday evening will see a downward trend in convective activity, with mostly isolated to scattered storms generally south of I-70.

A stronger shortwave trough will enter the lower Ohio River Valley Friday and promote broad jet-aided ascent for the forecast area. This setup is likely to generate more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage Friday. Environmental conditions remain variable amongst ensemble models but mean SBCABE around 1000 J/kg, PWAT above 90th percentile, and 30-40kts 0-6km shear suggest potential for hazardous weather in the form of damaging wind and flash flooding.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- High probability for dry weather and slightly above average temperature the rest of the weekend.

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Long range patters suggest troughing will persist over the Central Plains, leaving the Upper Ohio River Valley within weak southwest flow (and likely within a dry slot). There is fairly high confidence in dry weather and slightly above normal temperature occurring Saturday through Monday until the next low pressure system potentially crosses Tuesday.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR is expected through most of Wednesday as an upper ridge moves east across the region. Wind should veer to the SW after sunrise, with a few gusts up to 20kt.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday evening with an approaching shortwave. Some uncertainty remains with timing, so have continued to carry VCTS for now. The most favorable instability for storms should remain just west of the area.

Outlook
Ceiling restrictions are expected Wednesday night through Thursday morning. An additional round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Thursday afternoon/evening with showers, thunderstorms and ocnl restrictions through Friday night/early Saturday as the front slowly crosses.

VFR should return Sunday under high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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