Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 2:56 AM   Moonset 5:51 PM

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FXUS64 KHGX 031953 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 253 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

High pressure aloft over the SE CONUS will continue to bring hot conditions across SE Texas through Thursday. NAEFS and GEFS indicate that 500mb heights will around the 90th to 99th percentile for this time of the year, while deterministic models show midlevel heights ranging from 593-595 dam. 850mb temperatures will still be around 18- 21C, commonly seen with summertime heat such as this. PWs of 1.8- 2.0" and isentropic lifting continues to bring daily chances of showers/storms, especially during the afternoon hours with support from the sea breeze. Weak impulses rounding the bottom of the high pressure aloft may also further enhance storm development, reflected in recent isolated convective activity east of the Houston area.
Either way, activity remains too isolated to have any significant impact on temperatures across the region.

Highs through Independence Day will still be in the 90s with isolated spots approaching triple digits. Lows will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Heat indices will range from 105-111 during the afternoon hours. The Heat Risk through Thursday will be Major, suggesting that heat related illnesses will become more prevalent, especially for those with inadequate cooling or poor hydration. WBGT values indicate that those participating in strenuous outdoor activities may experience Extreme heat stress. A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM Tonight for portions of SE Texas.
Another Heat Advisory will be in effect on Thursday (from noon to 7 PM), encompassing most of SE Texas except for coastal areas.

If you have any outdoor plans for Independence Day, please make sure to practice heat safety. Drink plenty of water and avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. Stay in an air- conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Check with your local authorities regarding the potential opening of any cooling centers in your area.

Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year. Do not underestimate the danger it poses.

03

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Conditions will remain HOT on Friday and will likely be a day of additional heat impacts across most of Southeast Texas as high temperatures rise a little more and range in the upper 90s to 100 deg F for much of the inland portions and in the mid to upper 90s along the coastal regions. Heat indices of 106 to 111 deg F is possible. Therefore, it is likely that another Heat Advisory would be required on Friday.

Rain chances will be on the rise this weekend, as moisture associated to the outskirts of Hurricane Beryl pushes into the Texas coastlines. Per the 2PM EDT Advisory, Beryl is still expected to make landfall somewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico. But any changes in the track/intensity forecast could result in more or less rain chances than what is currently on the forecast. Beryl could bring high surf and strong rip currents along the coasts/beaches, therefore, make sure to keep tabs on the latest forecasts and make the appropriate preparations if you are planning to visit our coastal locations this weekend and/or early next week.

During the first half of the upcoming week, there is the potential for additional, and possibly even greater, rain chances as Beryl makes landfall and another tropical disturbance trailing right behind Beryl moves into the western Gulf of Mexico increasing low level moisture transport over our region. Our rain chances will ultimately depend on the track and size of this disturbance.
Therefore, for this forecast package, continued with a blended model output - heaviest on the NBM solution.

Fore more information regarding weather conditions for Southeast Texas, visit weather.gov/hgx and for information regarding tropical cyclone activity, visit nhc.noaa.gov

24

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions should prevail throughout the TAF period. Winds will be light and generally SW/SE, potentially a tad stronger during the afternoon hours along the sea breeze. This could also generate a few isolated showers/storms, mainly near KHOU and KIAH.
Rain chances still look isolated on Thursday as well.

03

MARINE
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through the next few days. Winds and seas will be on the rise later this weekend into the first half of the upcoming week as first Hurricane Beryl moves into the Gulf of Mexico and towards the northeastern coast of Mexico and then another tropical disturbance follows suit a few days later. Elevated water levels along the Bays, high surf, and strong rip currents are possible. Moreover, associated to these two systems, several rounds of showers and storms can be expected.

Changes in the track/intensity of Beryl and the tropical disturbance is possible, thus, continue to monitor the progress of both systems.

24

TROPICAL
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Hurricane Beryl continues to work its way westward across the Caribbean Sea. The official National Hurricane Center forecast has Beryl crossing the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and Friday night and then working its way toward a landfall just south of the Texas/Mexico border on Sunday evening/night. Keep updated with the latest National Hurricane Center advisories on Beryl as any significant changes in the track and/or intensity forecast could lead to significant changes in our area forecast.

42

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 77 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 80 97 79 98 / 0 20 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 83 94 / 10 20 0 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 196-198>200-212-213-227.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335-338.

GM...None.

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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:45 AM CDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:58 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:58 AM CDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:45 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet

Point Barrow
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:10 AM CDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:35 AM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:44 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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