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FXUS64 KHGX 231057 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 557 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

At 1:50am CDT this morning, the season of fall officially began with the Autumn (Fall) Equinox. So, that must mean we have some comfortable and pleasant weather outside right? Right?! Not so fast my friend...this is Southeast Texas we're talking about, so instead of pleasant fall-like temperatures we'll have sultry summer-like temperatures
Hey
I'm just the messenger! With mid to upper level ridging persisting over the weekend, we'll continue to see temperatures reach the upper 90s with isolated spots reaching the triple digits. College Station reached 101°F the past two days, and I don't see any reason why they can't reach the triple digits again today. So, if you have any outdoor plans today in the afternoon hours up there, be sure to properly hydrate and protect yourself from the sun/heat. With humidity continuing to be high, heat index values will remain elevated in the 103-107°F range. There may be some isolated areas that reach a 108°F heat index, but this isn't widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. This is more likely to occur for areas west of I-45.

As far as rain chances go, today should be a bit drier than Friday with the flow aloft becoming essentially due north which isn't as conducive for PVA. The 00Z CAMs depict that the best chance for rain will be around Matagorda Bay, and there's a few of those models that show pretty much nothing developing today too. With PW values remaining around 1.8"-2.1", we certainly have the moisture in place for the sea breeze/bay breeze to interact with and generate at least a few showers/storms. Overnight temperatures will still run quite a few degrees above normal with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Keep in mind that it'll be VERY humid outside. So, if you have any plans in let's say Harris ('Bey') County in the evenings this weekend, you'll want to plan accordingly to avoid a bad hair day.

By this evening, surface low pressure will have formed in north TX with an associated cold front just south of the TX Panhandle. As this front slowly drifts southeastward on Sunday, it will steadily increase our chances of rain...especially for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods areas. My current thinking is that the big rain chances will hold off long enough on Sunday for us to still reach the upper 90s and isolated 100s once again. Heat index values will remain elevated in the triple digits, but below the threshold for a Heat Advisory. Expect rain chances to continue to increase overnight on Sunday heading into the start of the work week.

Batiste

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Mid/upper ridging will retrograde southwest into northwest Mexico during the long term, opening the door to southwestward propagating shortwaves during the Monday to Wednesday time frame.
The initial impact of this pattern change will be the approach of a weak frontal boundary from the north on Monday. This boundary is likely to be quite diffuse as it pushes through the CWA. That being said, ample lift from the shortwaves coupled with plentiful moisture and surface convergence from the weak front should suffice for some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity on Monday. Monday's PoPs range from 50-70 percent from about I-10 points north, to 40-50 percent near the coast. It is worth mentioning that guidance has trended later with the rainfall chance's time of arrival. Therefore, we cannot rule out having to push back the best chance of rain further into Monday evening or night.

By Monday night into Tuesday, what is left of the front is expected to push offshore. This should continue the chance of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms over our southern counties through the Tuesday and Wednesday time period. For now, we keep this pattern going through Thursday and Friday as well.
However, global models disagree on the late week pattern. If you want more rain and less hot temperatures, then you should cheer for the ECMWF which indicates the presence of a weak mid/upper low over our region. This would entail higher PoPs than currently indicated during the late-week time frame. Regarding temperatures, humid/summery conditions prevail with highs averaging in the low-90s with overnight lows predominantly in the 70s.

Self

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Ceilings and visibilities will be up and down across various sites this morning as a deck of low-level clouds continues to develop over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. MVFR ceilings will be possible at CXO and northward through 14Z. CXO and LBX are continuing their usual early morning decrease in visibility due to patchy fog, but expect this to clear out by 14Z as well. Winds will start out southerly this morning then become southeasterly this afternoon with occasional gusts around 15-20 knots. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible today, but mainly near Matagorda Bay.
LBX and SGR would be the closest to any convection if it develops, but coverage will be too low to warrant throwing in VCSH. Winds trend down going into the overnight hours and there is the potential for another round of MVFR ceilings developing early Sunday morning around CLL again.

Batiste

MARINE
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Generally light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas are expected through the weekend. Wind speeds may approach 15 knots during parts of the evening and overnight hours, but will lower shortly after sunrise. Isolated showers are possible during the overnight to early morning hours through the weekend as well.
A weak frontal boundary will approach the coast on Monday, bringing a risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the forecast period. Winds are expected to become more east to northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Self

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 99 77 99 75 / 10 10 20 50 Houston (IAH) 97 77 98 77 / 20 0 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 90 83 89 81 / 20 0 20 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:24 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:09 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:25 AM CDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:24 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:15 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:24 PM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet

Point Barrow
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Sat -- 12:23 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:08 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:23 AM CDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:23 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:08 PM CDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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