LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Key Messages:

- All of South Texas interests should make sure their preparedness plans are in order and stay informed regarding Beryl.

- Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue this weekend into next week.

No substantial changes to the inherited Extended range forecast early this morning. As of writing, the center of Hurricane Beryl is close to making landfall in the next few hours over the Yucatan Peninsula. Beryl is then progged to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend.
There remains uncertainty in regards to the actual track and intensity of Beryl as it approaches the western Gulf coast, with the 3-day error cone extending from the northeastern Mexican coast into the Corpus Christi area. Nevertheless, preparation for this event remain in order as several associated hazards could impact the region as early as tonight and continue through early next week.
Impacts include increased swell heights and periods, potential coastal flooding, High rip currents risk, and medium to high rain chances. Per the latest updates to WPC's QPF guidance, rainfall amounts of 4-8" with isolated higher amounts will be possible over South Texas through mid week. WPC has also continued to carry a Slight risk of excessive rainfall from Sunday through Tuesday morning over the entire area, indicating at least a 15% chance of flash flooding. SPC has also introduced a Marginal risk of tornadoes mainly for the Sunday night to Monday morning period.

Once the system moves through, waves of deeper moisture will aid in maintaining medium rain chances through the end of the work week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Skies will remain mostly clear this afternoon. Light to moderate southeast winds will be in place, with occasional wind gusts to around 15-20 knots. By evening mostly clear conditions continue, with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Brief periods of MVFR VSBYs are possible tomorrow morning over our eastern terminals due to patchy fog. Conditions should clear by late morning, giving way to mostly clear conditions with east- southeast winds of 5-10 kts.

MARINE
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through Sunday morning, gradually increasing throughout the day as Hurricane Beryl approaches. While uncertainty is still high on timing and actual track, elevated seas up to 13 feet occasionally to 17 feet can be expected late this weekend into early next week with strong winds as Beryl approaches the northeastern Mexico and South Texas coastlines.
Rain chances will increase Sunday with medium to high chances hanging around through mid to late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 77 94 79 92 / 0 10 10 40 Victoria 76 97 76 94 / 20 30 10 30 Laredo 76 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 74 98 75 96 / 0 10 10 30 Rockport 81 93 82 94 / 0 10 10 40 Cotulla 77 101 78 102 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 76 96 78 94 / 0 10 10 40 Navy Corpus 81 91 83 90 / 0 10 20 50

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...None.