Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:56 PM Moonrise 3:02 AM   Moonset 6:17 PM

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FXUS62 KFFC 030859 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 459 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Morning Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

At a glance:

- Warming temperatures with a Heat Advisory for much of the area on July 4th.
- Increasing chances of showers and storms with the best chances across the S.

An upper ridge of high pressure will remain anchored across the SE through Thursday. At the surface, the wedge of high pressure will continue to weaken, with gradually warming temperatures across the area along with increasing diurnal chances of showers and thunderstorms.

For today, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the S third of the area, with isolated showers across the Atlanta metro area. The northern portion of the County Warning Area (CWA) is expected to remain dry. For Thursday, scattered showers and storms are expected across most of the area, with the best chances in the SW CWA QPF amounts across the area are expected to be generally light through this period. However, very light low and mid-level winds will lead to slow storm motion. As a result, isolated heavier rainfall totals are certainly possible. Severe weather is not expected, but isolated storms may become briefly strong with gusty winds the main threat.

The big story- particularly on July 4th- will be hot temperatures.
High temperatures will rise well into the 90s across much of the area, with the warmest temperatures over the E half and NW corner of the area. The highest dew points during this time period are expected across the SW portion of the area as southerly flow continues to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture. The different areas of max temperatures and dew points will lead to rather variable heat index values, but many areas are expected to reach low end Heat Advisory criteria. Due to the upcoming holiday, have gone ahead and hoisted an advisory for all areas save the NE. /SEC

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Looking at a break down of the 500 mb ridging over our area as the high pressure shifts eastward and a trough begins to deepen into the mid MS valley into Friday. As this trough moves further eastward and the associated surface low moves into the Ohio valley, a cold front looks to move into the Tennessee Valley by Friday increasing rain chances over north Georgia Friday into Saturday. The front then looks to sag southward over the area into Saturday evening/Sunday which is reflected in the increased rain chances through the weekend. Models are indicating PWATs at 2"+ over the area into the weekend, so again any storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers and we'll have to keep an eye on the flooding potential although rainfall amounts are limited at this time. CAPE values ~1500-2500 J/KG are currently showing up in the ensembles, so thunderstorms will definitely be a risk as well through the weekend.

Towards the beginning to middle of next week, things are a little uncertain when it comes to rainfall potential. The troughing does look to stay solidly in place though over the central US with the high pressure of to our east. With this pattern and the increased moisture being brought in with southwesterly winds, have kept increased PoPs through the middle of the week. This increased moisture is also the reasoning behind the increased heat indices through the long term. Currently looking at heat indices from 100- 107 through the long term, although increased rainfall may help reduce those values.

Temps are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend and with the moist airmass (dewpoints in the mid 70s), heat indices will need to be monitored for potential heat advisories for the July 4th weekend.

Hernandez

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Low cigs beginning to form near and S of the Atlanta metro area will continue to expand and lower through the early morning hours. Cig heights around the Atlanta are expected to range from 1800-2500 feet (but lower cigs are possible around daybreak). Lower cigs are expected for CSG and MCN. Ceilings are expected to lift and eventually thin during mid to late morning. Light, mostly easterly winds will become SE through the day. Wind directions may flirt with S-SSW late in the afternoon or early in the evening at ATL, but directions should average SSE. A few showers are possible at ATL in the late afternoon or early evening. Scattered thunderstorms are possible farther S at MCN and CSG.

//ATL Confidence
06Z Update
Medium for morning cigs, high for other elements.

SEC

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 92 73 96 76 / 10 10 20 10 Atlanta 91 75 94 77 / 30 10 40 10 Blairsville 86 68 89 70 / 10 10 40 20 Cartersville 93 74 96 75 / 20 10 40 20 Columbus 94 76 94 76 / 50 20 60 10 Gainesville 91 74 94 76 / 10 10 30 10 Macon 92 74 95 75 / 50 10 40 10 Rome 94 75 97 76 / 20 10 40 20 Peachtree City 91 73 94 75 / 30 10 40 10 Vidalia 92 74 95 74 / 60 10 40 10

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ001>005-011- 012-019>021-024-025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098- 102>113.

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