Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alexandria, OH
July 3, 2024 4:27 PM EDT (20:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:06 AM Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM Moonset 6:30 PM |
LEZ144 Expires:202407031415;;357637 Fzus51 Kcle 030758 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 358 am edt Wed jul 3 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-031415- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 358 am edt Wed jul 3 2024
Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday - West winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 75 degrees, off cleveland 71 degrees, and off erie 71 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 358 am edt Wed jul 3 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-031415- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 358 am edt Wed jul 3 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 75 degrees, off cleveland 71 degrees, and off erie 71 degrees.
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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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FXUS61 KILN 031857 AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 257 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the Fourth of July holiday. On Friday, a stronger system will move through the Ohio Valley, bringing additional chances for storms. The area looks to dry out over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Wednesday daytime storms that fired off ahead of the cold front will still be moving through the area at the start of the near term period, likely somewhere along the Ohio River. Given continued weak shear, storm mode will likely be multicellular in nature and driven largely by local/cold pool thermodynamics. A saturated troposphere with high PWATS (170-200% of normal), skinny CAPE, and the relatively straight hodos indicate that the main storm threat will likely be strong winds associated with precip loading. In addition, any area where storms train will likely see some quick ponding/ localized flooding.
We quickly lose instability after sunset, so storms will likely die down in intensity before midnight, though, some showers may linger during the overnight hours, particularly along the Ohio River area.
Winds decrease during the overnight and thanks to the afternoon/evening rain, we may have some patchy early morning fog formation, particularly in rural areas. For now, did not add into the grids. Overnight lows fall to the low/mid 70s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The forecast for the Fourth of July holiday is a tricky one, given the weakly forced but very moist environment. Looking aloft, as the shortwave that prompted Wednesday's cold front moves away from the region, and the associated cold front will stall out and drape across our CWA Given that we continue to remain in a very moist airmass and that modest instability builds back into the region, would expect at least some convection during the day Thursday, however, confidence on timing remains very low.
A handful of CAMs suggest early morning rounds of storms moving from west to east, training along areas near the Ohio river with a brief afternoon lull before a stronger afternoon line/MCS moves through. Other guidance suggests a quieter morning with scattered showers before a late afternoon MCS moves into the region. Depending on timing of the late afternoon MCS (should it occur), this may inhibit additional rounds of evening storms.
Either way, the signal is there for one or more repeated rounds of showers/storms through our forecast area during the holiday.
Obviously, outside of any severe threat, lightning always poses a threat, particularly when you have large numbers of people gathered outside. As you celebrate the Fourth, plan to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts, especially if you plan to be out at events!
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
One last wave of showers and thunderstorms will move through on Friday. At this point, this looks fairly disjointed with activity moving through during the day ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Cannot rule out some additional showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves through late in the day into the early evening.
High pressure will build in for the weekend and persist into Monday.
Initially, this will bring a more seasonal airmass, but temperatures will be rising back into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms will return Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. Another high will bring the return of dry conditions for Wednesday.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Showers are beginning to fire back up ahead of the cold front at the beginning of the TAF period. Anticipating that these will begin to produce lightning soon as they continue to build and work their way east. Strong southwesterly flow continues this afternoon with gusts to 25 knots. Winds decrease around sunset.
All sites have a period of VCTS during this afternoon and evening hours as this disturbance moves into the area. As far as exact locations and timings go... tricky forecast. The majority of storms will be driven by localized dynamics and, therefore, placement is difficult to predict. Plan to issue AMDs as needed when storm propagation becomes more identifiable.
Outside of storms, a mid level cloud deck is moving into the region and VSBYs remain VFR for now. Clouds will lower to MVFR and even IFR during early morning hours on Thursday.
Additionally, patchy BR in the moist environment will likely form. Therefore, have included MVFR VSBY and CIG restrictions at all sites.
For Thursday, additional showers and storms are anticipated and, again, timing is difficult for these. For now, have storm coverage ramping up after 15Z. Winds on Thursday remain out of the southwest, around 5-10 knots.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ053>056- 060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 257 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through the Fourth of July holiday. On Friday, a stronger system will move through the Ohio Valley, bringing additional chances for storms. The area looks to dry out over the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Wednesday daytime storms that fired off ahead of the cold front will still be moving through the area at the start of the near term period, likely somewhere along the Ohio River. Given continued weak shear, storm mode will likely be multicellular in nature and driven largely by local/cold pool thermodynamics. A saturated troposphere with high PWATS (170-200% of normal), skinny CAPE, and the relatively straight hodos indicate that the main storm threat will likely be strong winds associated with precip loading. In addition, any area where storms train will likely see some quick ponding/ localized flooding.
We quickly lose instability after sunset, so storms will likely die down in intensity before midnight, though, some showers may linger during the overnight hours, particularly along the Ohio River area.
Winds decrease during the overnight and thanks to the afternoon/evening rain, we may have some patchy early morning fog formation, particularly in rural areas. For now, did not add into the grids. Overnight lows fall to the low/mid 70s.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The forecast for the Fourth of July holiday is a tricky one, given the weakly forced but very moist environment. Looking aloft, as the shortwave that prompted Wednesday's cold front moves away from the region, and the associated cold front will stall out and drape across our CWA Given that we continue to remain in a very moist airmass and that modest instability builds back into the region, would expect at least some convection during the day Thursday, however, confidence on timing remains very low.
A handful of CAMs suggest early morning rounds of storms moving from west to east, training along areas near the Ohio river with a brief afternoon lull before a stronger afternoon line/MCS moves through. Other guidance suggests a quieter morning with scattered showers before a late afternoon MCS moves into the region. Depending on timing of the late afternoon MCS (should it occur), this may inhibit additional rounds of evening storms.
Either way, the signal is there for one or more repeated rounds of showers/storms through our forecast area during the holiday.
Obviously, outside of any severe threat, lightning always poses a threat, particularly when you have large numbers of people gathered outside. As you celebrate the Fourth, plan to have multiple ways to receive weather alerts, especially if you plan to be out at events!
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
One last wave of showers and thunderstorms will move through on Friday. At this point, this looks fairly disjointed with activity moving through during the day ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Cannot rule out some additional showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves through late in the day into the early evening.
High pressure will build in for the weekend and persist into Monday.
Initially, this will bring a more seasonal airmass, but temperatures will be rising back into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms will return Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. Another high will bring the return of dry conditions for Wednesday.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Showers are beginning to fire back up ahead of the cold front at the beginning of the TAF period. Anticipating that these will begin to produce lightning soon as they continue to build and work their way east. Strong southwesterly flow continues this afternoon with gusts to 25 knots. Winds decrease around sunset.
All sites have a period of VCTS during this afternoon and evening hours as this disturbance moves into the area. As far as exact locations and timings go... tricky forecast. The majority of storms will be driven by localized dynamics and, therefore, placement is difficult to predict. Plan to issue AMDs as needed when storm propagation becomes more identifiable.
Outside of storms, a mid level cloud deck is moving into the region and VSBYs remain VFR for now. Clouds will lower to MVFR and even IFR during early morning hours on Thursday.
Additionally, patchy BR in the moist environment will likely form. Therefore, have included MVFR VSBY and CIG restrictions at all sites.
For Thursday, additional showers and storms are anticipated and, again, timing is difficult for these. For now, have storm coverage ramping up after 15Z. Winds on Thursday remain out of the southwest, around 5-10 knots.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Friday.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ053>056- 060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KVTA NEWARKHEATH,OH | 12 sm | 33 min | SSW 13G19 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 90°F | 68°F | 49% | 29.98 | |
| KCMH JOHN GLENN COLUMBUS INTL,OH | 14 sm | 36 min | SW 15G25 | 10 sm | Overcast | 91°F | 70°F | 49% | 29.96 | |
| KOSU OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY,OH | 22 sm | 34 min | SSW 16G22 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 91°F | 70°F | 49% | 29.96 | |
| KLHQ FAIRFIELD COUNTY,OH | 24 sm | 34 min | SW 08G17 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 90°F | 72°F | 56% | 29.99 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KVTA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KVTA
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KVTA
Wind History graph: VTA
(wind in knots)
Wilmington, OH,
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