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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Atlantic, VA

July 3, 2024 5:32 AM EDT (09:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM
Moonrise 2:12 AM   Moonset 5:51 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 359 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024

Through 7 am - E winds 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds.

Today - E winds 5 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 17 seconds.

Tonight - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Thu night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.

Fri - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds.

Fri night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Sat - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Sat night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.

Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 359 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a diurnal pattern of elevated south to southeast winds during the afternoon and evening and diminishing south to southwest winds at night continues through Saturday with lighter winds next week. Daily storm chances return Thu into early next week as well.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 030732 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 332 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure off the coast gradually settles south into the western Atlantic through late this week. Seasonally hot but remaining dry today. Heat and humidity build over the region from Independence Day through early next week. Daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms also return from Independence Day into the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

- Key Message: Seasonally warm and dry with slightly more humid conditions today.

Latest analysis reveals 1024mb surface high pressure just off the northeast/northern mid-Atlantic coast. Aloft, light NNW flow persists as a ~595 dam mid-level ridge continues to build over the gulf coast into the eastern Great Lakes as an upper trough pushes farther offshore.

A mostly clear sky across the region this morning aside from some scattered stratocu which has drifted south across the I-95 corridor early this morning. Farther east, some spotty low stratus and patchy ground fog has developed along the coastal plain. We'll see some pockets of patchy fog through just after sunrise, clearing by mid-morning.

Surface high pressure offshore continues to gradually build down the east coast today into tonight, as the upper level ridge axis builds into the northeast. Mostly sunny and remaining dry today.
High temperatures will return to near seasonal averages ranging from around 80F/lower 80s along the coast (with ESE flow) to the mid/upper 80s inland where winds will begin the day E-SE, but will veer around to the south, with slightly but noticeably more humid conditions by mid-afternoon/early evening.

Mostly clear and dry tonight. Return flow will make for a milder and more humid night as high pressure settles in the Bermuda Ridge position in the western Atlantic. Look for early morning low temperatures to range from the mid 60s to around 70F, with some patchy low stratus/ground fog once again toward Thu morning.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid conditions return for Thursday and Friday.

- Rain chances return to the forecast for the afternoon into the evening on Independence Day and again on Friday. Best rain chances remain W-NW of the Richmond Metro area into the VA Piedmont.

Hotter and more humid conditions for Independence Day, courtesy of increasing SSW flow with high pressure becoming anchored off the SE coast. High temperatures range from the upper 80s/lower 90s along the coast, to the mid 90s inland. Continue to undercut the very moist NBM dewpoint numbers, but nonetheless more humid Thu, with PWs to climb to ~2.00 by Thursday night. Forecast dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F during peak heating result in heat indices well into the upper 90s to lower 100s.

There is a potential for widely scattered showers/tstms developing along pre-frontal/lee trough Thursday afternoon and evening.
Rain chances are generally 20-40% for mainly late aftn/evening tstms (highest PoPs NW of a Farmville- Richmond- Ocean City MD line). A convective Marginal Risk remains in place from the SPC, with gusty winds from wet microbursts the main hazard. Partly cloudy, warm and muggy/humid Thursday night with lows in the low- mid 70s.

PWs trend up further for Friday, reaching 2-2.25" by Friday morning (*near daily max value). Forecast highs Friday are similar to Thursday. However, it will be a bit more humid and with dewpoints slightly higher, heat indices at or above 105F are looking increasingly likely for central and SE VA and into NE NC. There is another chance of afternoon showers/tstms Friday along the lee trough lingering over the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity linger for Saturday into the first part of next week. Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance for mainly late day and evening showers and storms each day.

The upper ridge will initially be positioned from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas to begin the forecast period Friday night, before it slowly shifts E off the SE coast while slowly weakening. This will serve to pump hot and humid air back into the mid- Atlantic region over the weekend, while also keeping a series of upper troughs blocked well off to our NW through the weekend (over the upper midwest/northern Great Lakes). Rather weak steering flow at the sfc with high pressure offshore will be conducive to a general S-SW low level flow, but with some afternoon seabreeze development possible.

Overall, highs look to average in the mid-upper 90s inland, and 90- 95F closer to the coast Saturday, and perhaps a few degrees lower Sunday through Tuesday as a weakening cold front pushes toward the region, likely to ultimately stall/wash out in the vicinity of the local area. Have remained a little below the typical high bias shown by NBM dewpoints, but still expect them to be back in the low- mid 70s for the period, which would yield heat indices in the 103-108F range Saturday and in the 100-105 range on Sunday through Tuesday. As for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/sctd mainly aftn/evening tstms (PoPs 20-40%), with the best chance in the piedmont and perhaps aided by the seabreeze, with mainly diurnally-driven timing favored at this time range as a result.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is centered just off the New England/northeast coast to begin the 06z/3 TAF period. This is resulting in onshore flow with generally an E to ESE wind of 5-10 KT. VFR at all the terminals, though some scattered SC have pushed in from the NW and will push across the VA piedmont this morning. Winds become calm to very light out of the SE early this morning, with predominate VFR conditions for most. However, guidance continues to show the potential for IFR vsby at SBY after midnight. Will go with prevailing IFR vsby from 08-12z for SBY. There could also be some low stratus accompanying the fog which temporarily diminishes VIS < 1SM. Additionally, some shallow ground fog is possible at PHF and points just W/SW and perhaps ECG with the potential for brief vsby restrictions. Will include an MVFR tempo IFR group at PHF and tempo MVFR at ECG, where climatology suggests more fog than guidance typically shows. Becoming VFR by mid-morning through this evening for all terminals. The high shifts off the coast through the day today, with winds becoming S inland and E to SE along the coast with speeds of 7-10kt.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail most of the time Wednesday night through Sunday. There is a potential for additional early morning shallow ground fog/low stratus as low-level moisture increases. This will also lead to a chc for aftn/evening showers/tstms as a slow moving boundary approaches from the NW Thursday/Friday and gradually weakens as it crosses into the region over the weekend.

MARINE
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key messages:

- South winds increase to 15-20 kt across the upper Chesapeake Bay tonight with Small Craft Advisories in effect.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely to be needed Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening for the Chesapeake Bay and the Virginia coastal waters.

- A period of elevated, diurnally-driven southerly winds is possible Friday and Saturday with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

A ~1024mb high pressure was located over the Mid Atlantic coast this morning. This high gradually shifts E through late week. Winds were generally SE 5-10 kt across the Ches Bay and E across the coastal waters. Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively. Winds become SE 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon across the bay, remaining 5-10 kt across the coastal waters. Winds become S 15-20 kt across the upper bay this evening into early tonight. For the rest of the bay, 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt are possible. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds have increased to ~45% across the upper bay with a wide range of 10-40% across the middle bay. As such, SCAs are now in effect from 10 PM to 4 AM for the upper bay. May need to expand SCAs S to the middle bay, however, confidence is too low at this time. In addition to the winds, waves build to 2-3 ft across the bay this evening (highest across the upper bay).

Winds become SE/S 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the Ches Bay and VA coastal waters Thu afternoon, becoming S Thu evening.
SCAs will likely be needed for this surge with wind probs of 70-85% across the middle and lower bay and 40-50% across the upper bay for 18 kt sustained winds. Wind probs for 25 kt gusts have increased to 40-50% across the Ches Bay and 50-65% for the VA coastal waters.
Waves and seas build to 2-4 ft and 4-5 ft respectively for this surge as well. Winds diminish to 10-15 kt Thu night. A period of diurnally driven elevated afternoon/evening S winds is likely to continue Fri and Sat. Each day, S winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt (mainly across the coastal waters). As such, SCAs may be needed for either/both days. Winds diminish Sun into early next week. Additionally, daily chances for afternoon/evening storms are possible from Thu into early next week.

There is a moderate rip risk on today due to favorable swell and wind direction orthogonal to the coastline and 2-3 ft waves.
However, will note that conditions look to rapidly change late this afternoon into this evening as the dominant period increases from 7 seconds to 15 seconds amidst orthogonal swell direction and waves building to 2-3 ft. This may allow for an abrupt change in the rip risk from moderate to high. The main limiting factor is the tide timing with the afternoon high tide occuring at 6:28 PM at the Ocean City Pier and 7:16 PM at Ocean City Inlet. This means that tides will likely be rising for most of the afternoon, potentially mitigating the rip risk. That being said, about an hour after high tide the rip risk may increase rapidly for the last hour or two of the day. Given the uncertainty, have maintained a moderate rip risk and will let the day shift analyze trends in the conditions to determine if an upgrade to high rip risk is warranted. On Thu, wind direction will be out of the S with a bit less of a shore normal component to the swell direction. That being said, periods of 12-14 seconds across the N beaches (7-8 seconds across the S beaches) and waves of 3-4 ft will allow for a moderate rip risk across all area beaches. Once again, there is a potential for an upgrade to a high rip risk across the N beaches given higher wave heights and a higher period swell.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures for Thu-Sat (July 4-6)

7/4 7/5 7/6 RIC 100/2002 102/2012 105/1977 ORF 98/1997 98/2012 102/1881 SBY 100/1919 102/2012 102/2010 ECG 100/1997 100/2012 99/2012

Record high minimum temperatures Thu-Sat (July 4-6)

7/4 7/5 7/6 RIC 77/1900 79/2012 80/2012 ORF 79/2012 80/1999 80/1999 SBY 78/2012 81/2012 77/2012 ECG 78/2012 77/2018 78/1999

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Wachapreague, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA 4 sm38 mincalm8 smClear63°F61°F94%30.21
KMFV ACCOMACK COUNTY,VA 21 sm17 mincalm10 smClear30.20


Tide / Current for Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Inlet, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
   
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Bogues Bay
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Wed -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:59 AM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:23 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:22 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Bogues Bay, Chincoteague Inlet, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.6
1
am
0.1
2
am
0.1
3
am
0.6
4
am
1.3
5
am
2.1
6
am
2.6
7
am
2.9
8
am
2.7
9
am
2.2
10
am
1.6
11
am
1
12
pm
0.5
1
pm
0.1
2
pm
0.2
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
1.7
5
pm
2.6
6
pm
3.3
7
pm
3.7
8
pm
3.6
9
pm
3.2
10
pm
2.6
11
pm
1.8


Tide / Current for Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Assateague Beach
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Wed -- 12:50 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:42 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Assateague Beach, Toms Cove, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.3
1
am
0.1
2
am
0.5
3
am
1.3
4
am
2.1
5
am
2.9
6
am
3.4
7
am
3.4
8
am
2.9
9
am
2.2
10
am
1.4
11
am
0.7
12
pm
0.2
1
pm
0.1
2
pm
0.6
3
pm
1.6
4
pm
2.7
5
pm
3.6
6
pm
4.3
7
pm
4.4
8
pm
4.1
9
pm
3.4
10
pm
2.5
11
pm
1.6


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