Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bena, MN
July 3, 2024 4:20 AM CDT (09:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:18 AM Sunset 9:13 PM Moonrise 1:50 AM Moonset 6:53 PM |
FXUS63 KDLH 030601 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 101 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Next chance for widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is Thursday night into Friday morning over inland northwest Wisconsin.
- Near-normal temperatures throughout the forecast period.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A cold front moves from west to east over the Northland this afternoon and evening. Afternoon clearing behind widespread rainfall this morning helped to initiate isolated showers so far this afternoon in north-central Minnesota. Mean storm motion will be east-northeastward as southwesterly low-level winds veer westerly in the mid to upper-levels this evening. Model forecast soundings support high-res cam guidance of scattered strong thunderstorms peaking in coverage from 6-11 PM this evening as mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and CAPE of 600-800 J/kg sustain updrafts long enough to produce pea to maybe penny size hail later today. Elevated winds around 30-35 knots may create gusts of 40-45 mph with any collapsing storms in this same time period. The most favored potential is from Grand Rapids to Two Harbors northward in northeast Minnesota.
The mid-level trough passes by the Northland after Midnight tonight to leave near-normal temperatures in the mid-70s to around 80 and gusty westerly winds behind for Wednesday. A secondary trailing backdoor cold front drops southward Wednesday afternoon and supports another chance of general thunderstorms in far northern Minnesota for Wednesday afternoon and evening again.
Those near-normal upper-70 temperatures last into the Independence Day holiday on Thursday, as a low pressure in the Lower Midwest drapes a warm front immediately south of the region. This area of mid-level divergence with building instability axis from north-central MN into inland northwest Wisconsin is most likely to create concerns for scattered daytime general to strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
Deepening on where the warm front sets up the northward extend near the South Shore Thursday night, locally heavy rainfall up to a couple of inches of rainfall may (30-40% chance) setup for inland northwest Wisconsin. The more favored solution though is this rainfall being closer to a half inch to one inch though for the inland parts of northwest Wisconsin through Friday morning as the low pressure drifts eastward.
A trough centered in the Central Canadian Prairies deepens Friday into Saturday morning as it drops southeastward into the northern US Plains by Saturday evening. Any speed up in this trough could create concerns for strong thunderstorms over parts of northern Minnesota for Saturday evening and overnight and ending Sunday morning. Near-normal temperatures with periodic thunderstorm chances last into the first part of next week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
IFR CIGS held on at HYR as of 06Z. Expect those to clear out within the next hour or so per GOES-East night microphysics imagery. Think we may see MVFR/IFR visibility develop at HIB, INL, and HYR overnight provided winds become calm before sunrise. Added short TEMPO groups to handle that potential.
Gusty west wind are expected during the day today. Scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated storms are possible over northern Minnesota this afternoon. Left a mention of VCTS in the forecast for INL. Winds weaken after 04.01Z.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Gusty southerly winds from the Apostles eastward to Saxon Harbor this afternoon further decrease into the evening before shifting southwesterly for Wednesday. Gusty southwesterly winds forecast to 25 knots near and north of Grand Marais tomorrow afternoon resulted in a Small Craft Advisory being issued.
Lighter easterly winds are likely Thursday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 101 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Next chance for widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is Thursday night into Friday morning over inland northwest Wisconsin.
- Near-normal temperatures throughout the forecast period.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A cold front moves from west to east over the Northland this afternoon and evening. Afternoon clearing behind widespread rainfall this morning helped to initiate isolated showers so far this afternoon in north-central Minnesota. Mean storm motion will be east-northeastward as southwesterly low-level winds veer westerly in the mid to upper-levels this evening. Model forecast soundings support high-res cam guidance of scattered strong thunderstorms peaking in coverage from 6-11 PM this evening as mid-level lapse rates approaching 7 C/km and CAPE of 600-800 J/kg sustain updrafts long enough to produce pea to maybe penny size hail later today. Elevated winds around 30-35 knots may create gusts of 40-45 mph with any collapsing storms in this same time period. The most favored potential is from Grand Rapids to Two Harbors northward in northeast Minnesota.
The mid-level trough passes by the Northland after Midnight tonight to leave near-normal temperatures in the mid-70s to around 80 and gusty westerly winds behind for Wednesday. A secondary trailing backdoor cold front drops southward Wednesday afternoon and supports another chance of general thunderstorms in far northern Minnesota for Wednesday afternoon and evening again.
Those near-normal upper-70 temperatures last into the Independence Day holiday on Thursday, as a low pressure in the Lower Midwest drapes a warm front immediately south of the region. This area of mid-level divergence with building instability axis from north-central MN into inland northwest Wisconsin is most likely to create concerns for scattered daytime general to strong thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.
Deepening on where the warm front sets up the northward extend near the South Shore Thursday night, locally heavy rainfall up to a couple of inches of rainfall may (30-40% chance) setup for inland northwest Wisconsin. The more favored solution though is this rainfall being closer to a half inch to one inch though for the inland parts of northwest Wisconsin through Friday morning as the low pressure drifts eastward.
A trough centered in the Central Canadian Prairies deepens Friday into Saturday morning as it drops southeastward into the northern US Plains by Saturday evening. Any speed up in this trough could create concerns for strong thunderstorms over parts of northern Minnesota for Saturday evening and overnight and ending Sunday morning. Near-normal temperatures with periodic thunderstorm chances last into the first part of next week.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
IFR CIGS held on at HYR as of 06Z. Expect those to clear out within the next hour or so per GOES-East night microphysics imagery. Think we may see MVFR/IFR visibility develop at HIB, INL, and HYR overnight provided winds become calm before sunrise. Added short TEMPO groups to handle that potential.
Gusty west wind are expected during the day today. Scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated storms are possible over northern Minnesota this afternoon. Left a mention of VCTS in the forecast for INL. Winds weaken after 04.01Z.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Gusty southerly winds from the Apostles eastward to Saxon Harbor this afternoon further decrease into the evening before shifting southwesterly for Wednesday. Gusty southwesterly winds forecast to 25 knots near and north of Grand Marais tomorrow afternoon resulted in a Small Craft Advisory being issued.
Lighter easterly winds are likely Thursday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KXVG
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KXVG
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KXVG
Wind History graph: XVG
(wind in knots)
Duluth, MN,
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