Sunrise 3:56 AM   Sunset 9:54 PM Moonrise 2:35 AM   Moonset 4:59 PM

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PKZ033 Southern Chatham Strait- 224 Pm Akdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Tonight - SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 4 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. Showers in the evening. Mon - Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. Mon night - E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. Tue - SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.Tue night - S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 14 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.Wed - S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Thu - S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fri - NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.

PKZ005
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 022226 AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 226 PM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SHORT TERM
/Through Monday night/ Somewhat quiet short range forecast at least for the first 24 hours. The panhandle currently is dealing with yet another front that is bringing more rain to parts of the area. Most of the rainfall has been in the southern panhandle today, and that is mainly where it will stay before diminishing later tonight. Winds are mostly 20 kt or less across the panhandle at the moment.

Monday is still looking to mostly be quiet as some ridging over the area suppresses the showers a little. It will not be completely dry as there will still be some chances of rain showers and mostly cloudy skies throughout the area due to continued onshore flow.

Monday Night is where things start to get interesting as a strong storm with the remains of a former tropical system (Tropical Storm Ewiniar) moves into the SE gulf. By the time the storm gets here however it will be starting to weaken and most of its moisture and energy will be directed farther south. We will still see some increased winds and rain from it however starting Monday night. The southern panhandle in particular will be the most affected with winds to min gale force likely for Clarence Strait and the extreme SE gulf late Monday night with the initial frontal band that moves in. Gusty winds are also possible for the areas on land with gusts possibly reaching 40 to 50 mph in some areas of the south. Rain will also be starting up again, but with most of the moisture directed south of the area, totals are not expected to reach significant levels so no flooding is expected at this time.

LONG TERM
/ Tuesday through Saturday/ Continuing from the short term discussion, the the big story is the unseasonably strong low that enters the Gulf and begins impacting the southern panhandle late Monday into Tuesday. Model guidance remains on track for the system to recurve northward and northwestward on Tuesday.
Unlike the previous system, this one will likely bring moderate rain to a majority of the panhandle in the form of convective showers as it transits the gulf, with the heaviest rain still expected for the southern panhandle. The storm itself is expected to have substantial embedded moisture, while a significant plume of moisture will be primarily aimed further south toward the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Models continue to trend towards having this system weaken as it makes its turn north and west into the central gulf. Despite this, sustained winds of 25+ kt are expected for Clarence Strait and northward towards Sumner through Tuesday afternoon before starting a downward trend as the storm continues tracking NW. Similarly, NE gulf coast will see widespread small craft conditions due to rising seas ranging from 17 ft SW of Prince of Wales Island to 12 ft near the Fairweather grounds. As the storm progresses into the north central gulf there is a chance for a barrier jet to develop along the NE gulf coast from Cape Fairweather towards Cape Suckling. Either way, seas of 9+ ft are expected for the majority of gulf waters before the storm finally exits the region Thursday morning and seas begin to subside.

While the storm continues marching westward during the day Thursday, southerly flow and remnant moisture will mean lingering showers for most of the panhandle. The model turbulence towards the end of the week has cleared up a bit, with a ridge setting up over SE AK and potentially building up towards the interior. This will lead to clearing conditions and therefore maximized daytime heating, as well as warm flow in the low to mid levels with snow levels set to reach upwards of 6000 ft in the southern panhandle by the second half of the day Friday and continue increasing into the weekend. This will be driven by overall increased southerly flow due to the developing gradient between the above mentioned ridge as well as another strong low that is set to spin up in the west central gulf. Overall forecaster confidence is moderate for this period due to relative agreement between models in the mid range and lower model divergence in the long range compared to previous runs.

AVIATION
VFR conditions for the first part of the TAF period while the potential for LLWS remains across the southern panhandle.
Conditions are expected to slowly deteriorate to MVFR and maybe some isolated IFR pockets across the southern panhandle during the overnight and morning hours as the remnants of the front continue to move closer to the panhandle. AAWU forecasts point towards some potential turbulence with this front, especially along the outer coast and southern panhandle. LLWS is expected to decrease in coverage during the overnight hours allowing for some improving conditions. Towards the latter half of the TAF period, conditions are expected to improve ahead of the next system.

MARINE
Marine forecast is mainly focused on the storm for Mon night into Tuesday. Winds in the extreme SE Gulf and over the southern inner channels, especially Clarence Strait, have been increased to min gale force for Monday night as the initial frontal band moves in late. Those winds are expected to diminish a little down to 25 to 30 kt by Tuesday but will remain at that level through Tuesday night at least in the south. Central inner channels and NE gulf likely will not see elevated winds from this system until during the day on Tuesday, and even then it will only be around 25 kt at max. 30 kt winds will then transition to the northern gulf Wed with diminishing winds for the rest of the area by that point. Seas will be elevated with this storm possibly reaching 15 ft for the SE gulf and up to 9 ft or 10 ft for southern Clarence Strait on Tuesday before slowly diminishing.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

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Cape Ommaney
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:35 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:09 AM AKDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:17 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:12 AM AKDT     7.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:55 PM AKDT     1.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:58 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:36 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:12 PM AKDT     10.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Ommaney, Alaska, Tide feet

Port Conclusion
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:35 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:10 AM AKDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:17 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:13 AM AKDT     8.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:56 PM AKDT     1.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:59 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:37 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:13 PM AKDT     11.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Conclusion, Baranof Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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