Sunrise 4:19 AM   Sunset 11:46 PM Moonrise 12:25 AM   Moonset 9:36 AM

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PKZ126 Port Valdez- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Thu - E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.Thu night - E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.Fri - E wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.Sat - E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.Sun - E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 261325 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 525 AM AKDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Water vapor imagery and H5 heights show a large occluded low moving into the central Bering this morning with frontal boundary lifting north across the southern AKPen and western Gulf. The upper ridge that has been entrenched over much of Alaska this past week has shifted slightly to the northeast with ridge axis now positioned from east-central Alaska down into the southern Yukon. Enhanced southerly flow between the ridge and Bering low has allowed for increased low-level moisture (in the form of low stratus and patchy fog) to advect up the Cook Inlet and is beginning to work up into the Susitna Valley this morning. Low stratus and patchy fog have also been noted on nighttime microphysics RGB satellite imagery working northward through the valleys of the Kenai as well as valleys across the southern Copper River Basin. Expect some of this stratus to start mixing out by mid to late morning, but with surface ridging still in place over the Gulf, Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound, it may linger into the afternoon for some areas.
Coastal areas along the Gulf will likely see little change from the past several days.

With the upper ridge shifting eastwards, thunderstorms chances will also shift slightly to the east. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are once again possible along the slopes of the Talkeetna Mountains, the Alaska Range, and the Wrangells; as well as across much of the Copper River Basin. Instability will increase through the day today as temperatures warm back into the 70s for the Mat-Su Valley and Copper River Basin. CAPE values of between 500 to 1000 J/kg look to set up from the Talkeetna Mountains over to the Wrangells on the southern side of the Alaska Range. While most of the convection will be more pulse-type, diurnally driven...a weak wave rounding the upper low combined with another weak easterly traversing wave rounding the ridge may allow enough forcing to get more scattered thunderstorms going over the Talkeetnas. As diurnal heating decreases this evening, thunderstorms will quickly start to dissipate. Thursday will again see the potential for isolated to scattered storms, but again shifts eastwards into the Copper River Basin.

- PP

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday evening)...

Weak disturbances will continue to tracking across interior Southwest Alaska through today. As a result, scattered wet thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across eastern portions of the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western Alaska Range. More stable air works inland for Thursday and Friday which should cease thunderstorm chances for the interior.

Towards the coast, there is a gale-force front that is draped in the eastern Bering Sea along the mainland Southwest coast this morning. Winds continue to be elevated along Kuskokwim Bay this morning where southeast gusts around 50 mph are and will continue to be common around Kipnuk, Kwigillingok, and Kongiganak. With this good fetch of southeasterly flow into the coast, there is a High Surf Advisory in effect the Kuskokwim Delta through early Thursday morning. Water levels are expected to rise during high tide to 3 to 6 feet above the normal highest tide. The peak of water level rise is expected this afternoon. Meanwhile, the front that is causing all the weather on the coast will not make it far inland before weakening completely this evening and overnight.
Therefore, the lion's share of precipitation will remain on the coast with little progression inland. The low's trailing front then comes to coastal Southwest Thursday morning with more rain and wind expected. Winds will not be as strong with this second round though. The low will eventually make a turn back to the northwest Thursday evening toward the northwest Bering Sea by Friday. However, subsequent waves will continue to lift into the coast from the Bering through Friday. Thus, generally expect the coast to remain unsettled the next few days with drier conditions inland.

Out west, the same system that is battering the coast with rain and winds is doing the same along the Aleutian Chain and the Pribilof Islands. Expect continued rainy and gusty conditions through Thursday evening. This is especially true for the central Aleutians. As conditions ease Thursday evening, there is no rest for the weary as another North Pacific low lifts toward the western Aleutians during that time. This low will straddle the Chain and make it to the eastern Aleutians southern Alaska Peninsula Friday evening with another round of wind and rain in store.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A ridge will remain over the area for the weekend for Southcentral and Copper River Basin. An isolated rain shower or thunderstorm is possible though into the beginning of next week.
In the Southwest, a series of lows progress through the Bering Sea into the Interior Southwest bringing cooler temperatures, clouds and frequent rain showers to the area through the early next week.

-DJ


AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, with calm southwesterly up-inlet flow prevailing into Friday. Building high pressure over the area will also result in decreased precipitation chances over the terminal. Fog and low stratus has spread up Cook Inlet, but has stopped just shy of reaching the terminal. If it makes it into the terminal could see ceilings drop down to, or below, IFR until it is able to mix out later this morning.

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Pete Dahl Slough
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:25 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 04:51 AM AKDT     10.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:36 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:05 PM AKDT     -1.57 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:17 PM AKDT     8.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:13 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pete Dahl Slough, Alaska, Tide feet

Eyak River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:27 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 04:59 AM AKDT     10.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:36 AM AKDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:25 PM AKDT     -1.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM AKDT     9.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:15 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eyak River entrance, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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Middleton,Island/Anchorage,AK