Sunrise 4:28 AM   Sunset 11:26 PM Moonrise 1:45 AM   Moonset 4:21 PM

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PKZ737 Marmot Bay- 249 Am Akdt Sun Jun 2 2024
.small craft advisory today - .
Today - NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.Tonight - NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.Mon - NE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.Mon night - N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.Tue - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Wed - SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.Thu - S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

PKZ700
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 021318 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 518 AM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A vertically stacked occluded low southeast of Kodiak Island this morning will continue to move southwest today. Its occluded front will remain draped over the northern gulf through Monday, producing steady rain and easterly winds up to 30 kt across the northern Gulf. A series of upper-level waves and vorticity lobes will move along the front with one over the southeast Gulf this morning helping to develop a surface low west of Sitka. The low will travel along the occluded front, eventually phasing with the first low before its weakens into an open trough south of Akhiok for Monday. This secondary low will help to enhance the easterly winds across the northern Gulf as well as the rainfall from the eastern Kenai southwest to Kodiak Island. For Kodiak City, an additional 1.5" of rain could fall by Monday morning with up to 3" for the northern mountains of Kodiak Island.

Shower activity across interior Southcentral will be less pronounced today as weak upper-level ridging ahead of the upper- level shortwave over the northern Gulf yields breaks in the cloud cover along with slightly warmer temperatures.

By Monday, another upper-level shortwave rotating around the nearly stationary upper-level low over the Gulf will help to push the occluded front into the Southcentral coast as the shortwave itself moves inland. The result will be a more southeasterly flow aloft that will usher in clouds and moisture in the form of scattered showers. Most of the shower activity will be across the Copper River Basin and along both the coastal mountains and Alaska Range. A few isolated showers will also be possible west of the Chugach and Kenai mountains for the first half of Monday.

Yet another easterly upper-level shortwave looks to move across interior Southcentral for Tuesday with additional shower activity from the Copper River Basin to the Mat-Su Valleys. However, there is still some uncertainty as to the strength and timing of this feature.

-TM

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A trough over the Aleutians digs into the Gulf of Alaska through Monday with high pressure becoming established over the western Bering Monday and Tuesday. The combination of high pressure over interior Alaska and low pressure over the Gulf will continue to direct easterly waves into Southwest Alaska today and tomorrow.
For today, expect off and on showers for parts of the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, mainly from Sleetmute to Aniak, southwestward into the Kuskokwim Mountains down to the coast. Afternoon highs for most locations will warm into the upper 50s with low 60s also being reached for parts of the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

Morning satellite shows breaks in clouds across over Greater Bristol Bay and over parts of the Western Alaska Range. These breaks are expected to shift westward through this afternoon as additional Pacific moisture and associated clouds spill over the Western Alaska Range. As a result, the best chance for weak instability developing today will stretch from across the Middle Kuskokwim Valley into the Kuskokwim Mountains where some isolated lightning will be possible. Low pressure over the Gulf will begin to move east on Monday with more breaks in cloud cover over the Western Alaska Range and portions of Greater Bristol Bay. The threat for wet thunderstorms and isolated lightning will likewise shift east as well.

The ridge of high pressure over the western Bering becomes more amplified on Monday. This and the departing low into the Gulf will clear the way for northerly flow to develop from the Chukchi Sea all the way into the Aleutians. Forecast models have consistently shown the arrival of one or two lows diving southward along the coast of Alaska with much cooler temperatures by late Tuesday. At or just above freezing temperatures will be possible into the Kuskokwim Delta coast by Tuesday afternoon. Drier conditions associated with the arctic intrusion should preclude any precipitation, though will certainly be worth watching over the next couple of days.

-BL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Wednesday through Saturday...

The midweek upper level forecast opens with a pair of lows stretching across the Southern portions of the state. The Eastern Gulf low weakens and tracks through to the Southwest Gulf before dissipating for Saturday. The Bering low center oscillates between Bristol Bay and the Central Aleutians, and remains the most persistent feature through the long term. Some additional energy out of the Arctic through the Bering Strait helps pull the center over the Central Aleutians. Jetstream support remains over the North Pacific. A clustered GFS/ECMWF/CMC ensemble maintains the best levels of confidence through the forecast period. The upper level ridge over the Eastern Mainland supports surface thermal troughs through the weekend.

Weak Southeasterly flow across Southcentral continues to pump moisture inland to the Alaska Range. Most precipitation will be showery, with best chances for convection in the Eastern Interior and Copper River Basin. Almost direct onshore flow continues more steady rainfall over Kodiak Island and the Alaska Peninsula. Gusty Northerly surface winds are expected in the Eastern Bering through Thursday. A number of surface features rotating over the Bering brings the more active weather across the Pribilofs and Aleutians.

- Kutz


AVIATION

PANC...Gusty southeasterly winds out the Turnagain Arm will likely develop this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and light winds to prevail throughout the rest of the TAF period.

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Kizhuyak Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:44 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:16 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:33 AM AKDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:34 AM AKDT     6.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM AKDT     1.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:21 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:02 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:39 PM AKDT     9.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kizhuyak Point, Alaska, Tide feet

Fox Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:45 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:15 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:01 AM AKDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:51 AM AKDT     7.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:42 PM AKDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:21 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:03 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:56 PM AKDT     10.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fox Bay, Whale Island, Alaska, Tide feet

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