Sunrise 4:16 AM   Sunset 11:43 PM Moonrise 12:43 PM   Moonset 12:41 AM

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PKZ140 Cook Inlet North Of Kalgin Island- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - Variable wind less than 10 kt.Tonight - Variable wind less than 10 kt.Thu - Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon.Thu night - N wind 20 kt.Fri through Sat - N wind 25 kt.Sun - N wind 20 kt.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 140100 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 PM AKDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Easterly wave activity into Southcentral comes to an end on Thursday, at least for the next few days. A low over the Gulf of Alaska will push eastward and along the coast of British Columbia through Friday. A second low lifting into the Western Aleutians is resulting in downstream ridging over the rest of the Bering, with the ridge forecast to build into western Alaska through Saturday.
Weak northerly flow will prevail across Southcentral Alaska Friday and Saturday with drier conditions lending to a warming trend through the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s can be expected across Southcentral with the Copper River Basin seeing temperatures warm into the upper 70s on Saturday. With the warmer weather Southcentral will see the return of thunderstorm chances. Weak to moderate instability over the Copper River Basin will likely see isolated to scattered wet thunderstorms develop by late afternoon. Some of this activity will spread southwestward through the evening hours, with potential for showers to move from the Valley into Anchorage.
While the greatest threat for lightning will exist from the Copper River Basin into the Susitna Valley, convection will be possible as far south as the Western Kenai Peninsula.

Northerly flow will begin to transition to southeasterly on Sunday, which should see the seabreeze return for coastal areas and mildly cooler temperatures when compared to Saturday.
Regardless, widespread upper 60s to lower 70s temperatures are forecast on Sunday as well, with another round of wet thunderstorms possible over the region.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

High pressure continues to build over Southwest Alaska, leading to much drier conditions and gradually warming temperatures. Upper- level support may provide enough energy to allow for some isolated thunderstorms to generate in the foothills of the Western Alaska Range and may move southwest into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay by Saturday. A low near the Western Aleutians pushes westward, along the southern edge of the Aleutian Chain over the next few days, stalling in the North Pacific south of Adak. This will bring rounds of rain showers and small craft winds to the Western/Central Aleutians through the end of the week. By Sunday afternoon, a similar convective pattern may set up in the eastern portions of Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. There is some mild uncertainty regarding the extent of this round of thunderstorms, namely how strong offshore flow will warm the area and advect the cells downstream off the foothills of the Western Alaska Range.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Monday through Thursday...

A very active pattern on the Alaska Weather map as an upper level Arctic low spreads its influence across the North Slope into Interior Alaska through Thursday. A ridge remains across the Southern Interior, being squeezed between the Arctic low and a broad low stretching across the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska through the period. This ridge is sufficient enough to support thermal surface troughs and raises the chances for convective activity. A number of weak perturbations are expected to slide through the pattern across the Southern portions of the state throughout the forecast.

Most of the concentrated weather remains in the North Pacific to the South of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Showers and locally breezy conditions begin in the Central and Eastern Aleutians and the Bering up to the Pribilofs beginning Monday.
Winds taper off late Monday. Showers will occur across the Southcentral Interior for late Monday. The Aleutians front continues its Eastward push over the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island before spreading more rain over Southcentral, Prince William Sound and the Copper River Valley through midweek. Showers linger behind the front over the Aleutians and Bering.
Temperatures range from the 40s across the Aleutians warming across the Mainland into the 70s and possible low 80s over the Eastern Interior through the period. Thunderstorms are possible over most of the Eastern inland areas.

- Kutz

AVIATION

PANC... It will remain dry into the evening hours. A mostly cloudy sky persists though into the late evening hours. Ceilings will lower LATER this afternoon but remain in VFR conditions as winds remain from southerly to southwesterly direction.

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