Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Happy Valley, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday morning)...

Discussion:

Afternoon satellite imagery shows the upper low that was over the Bering Strait is starting to move towards the Southwest coast and Nunivak Island. The trough extending from this low is sweeping across the central Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, bringing rain and gusty winds to these areas. The strongest winds will remain on the Pacific/Gulf side of the Aleutians as the trough swings through and lifts towards Bristol Bay on Thursday. Rain will continue to spread across the AKPEN and into inland Bristol Bay region by Thursday morning. Models have shifted precip slightly eastwards with this system, placing Bethel and the Kusko River on the edge of higher rainfall amounts. This system moves through rather quickly but will likely see some lingering showers on Friday as the surface low moves towards Cook Inlet and effectively stalls as it quickly weakens.

But as has been the case over the past week, the next in line of systems will quickly drop southwards from eastern Russia towards the Aleutians and southern AKPEN on Friday. Once again, more widespread rainfall can be expected as the low organizes and the associated front rotates through the Aleutians. Models have come in a bit stronger with this low as it moves over the Bering Sea with Small Craft and Gale Force east to southeast winds rapidly moving over the islands Friday morning. As the low swings down towards the islands before pivoting back north, strong northerly winds moving in on the backside of the system...again with the strongest winds moving through pretty quickly. However, gusty winds may linger as the low slows as it begins to pivot north.

- PP

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Very little change from the previous discussion. There is a strong signal in the global models of a slow moving, highly amplified, upper level trough consolidating along 165th west meridian and lingering across much of Alaska well into next workweek.
Smaller scale details are less certain, especially with embedded shortwaves rounding the base of the trough and moving into the Gulf of Alaska, where moderate storm development is possible over the southern Bering Sea and northern Gulf. This pattern supports an extended unsettled stretch of daily rain chances region wide though precipitation will turn more widespread, organized and windier from the Southwest through Prince William Sound and Southcentral Alaska as moisture deepens and shifts northward. A multi-day heavy rainfall threat has been highlighted for those areas next week. The main forecast challenge through the long term is timing out shortwaves (which will drive periods of moderate rainfall) rotating around the large upper level trough complex that will anchor over the eastern Bering Sea.

Along the coastal waters, particularly the Gulf of Alaska and Southern Bering Sea, strengthening systems carry the potential for increasing winds and rougher seas. These conditions are likely to create hazardous marine environment for boating, commercial fishing and vessel operations, with heavier seas and gusty winds possible. Overall, the wetter and windier pattern across southern and coastal Alaska will require attention to accumulating rainfall impacts and marine hazards into early next week.

-DD/AM

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through most of the TAF period.
Gusty south to southeast winds will slowly diminish this evening into tonight, but will likely return by around midday Thursday.
Areas of rain and some lowering of ceilings are also likely by late Thursday morning ahead of a low approaching Southcentral from the Bristol Bay vicinity.