.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

High pressure over the southern Bering has worked its way into Southwest Alaska this morning. Generally drier conditions promise a slightly warmer day on Friday than what was experienced yesterday. High temperatures will warm into the upper 50s this afternoon with a few areas across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Greater Bristol Bay regions to see low to mid 60s. Saturday will see rain chances return to both Southwest Alaska and the Aleutian Chain. A trough pushing through interior Alaska and a developing front over the Aleutians are expected to run into a westward moving trough over the southern Gulf of Alaska. The resulting area of convergence between these features will promote an area of showers spanning the Aleutian Chain into the Western Alaska Range during the morning hours on Saturday. An unsettled weather pattern should then continue into the latter half of the weekend with the passage of additional shortwaves extending precipitation chances into Sunday.

BL

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Monday through Thursday...

An elongated upper level trough with several low centers rotating through the pattern on the Alaska Weather Map. The Arctic centers slide Westward before dipping into the Bering, forming a broad low across the Central Bering for midweek. This brings cooler temperatures across the Bering and Western Alaska. The change should help reduce the fire danger over large portions of the Mainland. A number of shortwaves pass through the pattern through midweek, spreading locally moderate precipitation across from the Central Aleutians into Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula.
A second low center moving up from the Eastern North Pacific merges with this low by Thursday. This low helps pump additional moisture and precipitation across all of Southcentral Alaska and across Kodiak Island and up to the Alaska Range through Thursday.
An upper level ridge establishes itself over the Eastern Interior by the end of the forecast. Models across the Alaska Region remain reasonably clustered, favoring the GFS/ECMWF blend through the end of the forecast period.

- Kutz


AVIATION

PANC...MVFR ceilings and gusty southerly winds to persist through the day on Friday. An occasional round of light rain cannot be ruled out this afternoon. More persistent shower activity develops tonight with continued gusty winds becoming southeasterly out the Turnagain Arm.