Sunrise 3:00 AM   Sunset 12:48 AM Moonrise 12:12 AM   Moonset 3:47 PM

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PKZ814 Cape Halkett To Flaxman Island Out To 15 Nm- 336 Am Akdt Sat Jun 29 2024
Today - NW winds 10 kt. Fog.Tonight - N winds 5 kt. Freezing fog. Sun - W winds 10 kt. Fog and freezing fog. Sun night - NW winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Mon - NW winds 5 kt. Fog and freezing fog. Mon night - E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Tue - SW winds 10 kt. Wed - SW winds 15 kt.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 291923 CCA AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1123 AM AKDT Sat Jun 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm weather will continue over much of the Interior through the weekend and into early next week. Areas of dense smoke from fires burning is reducing visibilities over the Middle Tanana Valley.
Smoke will be in and out through the weekend. Dense smoke advisories expected to continue. Isolated storms will persist into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Analysis and Model Discussion...

A strong vertically stacked low will remain in the central Bering Sea then drift across the Aleutians on Sunday as a 540 dam Low. Ridging will persist over the Interior this weekend.
A trough will push across the eastern North slope late Sunday into Monday. Another low over Russia will push a front across Northwest Alaska on Tuesday. Ridging over the Interior will slowly break down Monday and Tuesday. Models in good agreement through the short term. The HRRR smoke model showing smoke persisting over the Interior through the weekend.

Interior...Warm weather will continue over much of the Interior through the weekend. Highs in the mid 80s and a few upper 80s over the Yukon Flats. Areas of dense smoke from fires burning is reducing visibilities over the Middle Tanana Valley. Smoke will be in and out through the weekend. Air across Fairbanks and North Pole is very unhealthy this morning. Dense smoke advisories have been extended into Sunday. Smoke may thin and visibility may improve in the afternoon around Fairbanks but become dense again early morning on Sunday. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with rising temps back into the 80s, and much lower thunderstorm activity, with that ridge aloft suppressing thunderstorm potential. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms return over the southern Interior on Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure in control over the majority of the west coast.
Western Interior will remain warm over the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Showers continue to rotate around the Yukon Delta from the low in the southern Bering through the weekend. Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from Grayling to Mcgrath on Sunday. Some of these storms will be fairly strong and may produce small hail and gusty winds with copious lightning.
Monday is another warm day, with increasing southwesterly winds as a low approaches the NW Arctic. Possible change in the pattern by Tuesday with temps cooling and a front bringing rain showers to the west coast. Temps could drop to the 60s Tuesday into Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A little less thunderstorm activity today but still a chance for isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Brooks Range today from Anatuvak Pass to the AlCan border. On Sunday, isolated storms return over the southern Interior. A front will begin to impact northwest Alaska and the western Brooks Range with strong west-southwesterly winds.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Long range models are coming more inline with a fairly large pattern shift beginning Tuesday, as a front from E Siberia moves inland across the NW Arctic and shifts east along the Brooks Range and eventually into the Interior through the remainder of the week. This will bring increasing west-southwest winds across the Mainland each day, with increasing chances for rainfall and cooler temps.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
Warm and relatively dry over the Interior through the weekend and into early Next week. Smoke and unhealthy air continues over the Middle Tanana Valley down to Delta Junction. Dense Smoke Advisories still in effect through Sunday. On Saturday, the thunderstorm threat moves Anatuvak Pass to the AlCan border. For now, widely scattered wet thunderstorms are expected. On Sunday, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms return over the southern Interior and western Interior from Grayling to McGrath.

Major pattern shift begins Tue and Wed as the upper ridge breaks down and a strong front moves into the NW Arctic and shifts east through the week, bringing potential wetting rains and much cooler temps, although strong southwest winds may create some critical fire weather conditions prior to that. Will continue to monitor.

HYDROLOGY
Heavy rain showers and thunderstorms over the Brooks Range today may feed into faster moving streams and cause rapid rises, which will remain high into this weekend. Glacial fed rivers including the Tanana are beginning to rise as warming temperatures lead to increased high elevation snowmelt.



AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Dense Smoke Advisory for AKZ834-837-840-841-842-843-844-839.
PK...None.

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Prudhoe Bay
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Sat -- 12:33 AM AKDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:09 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:40 AM AKDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:17 PM AKDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:42 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:01 PM AKDT     0.78 feet High Tide
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Prudhoe Bay
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Sat -- 12:41 AM AKDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:09 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:03 AM AKDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:11 PM AKDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:42 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:40 PM AKDT     0.34 feet High Tide
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