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PKZ814 Cape Halkett To Flaxman Island Out To 15 Nm- 513 Am Akst Thu Nov 30 2023
Today..NE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt. Freezing fog.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt. Freezing fog.
Fri night..E winds 10 kt. Freezing fog.
Sat..NE winds 15 kt. Freezing fog.
Sat night..E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog.
Sun..SW winds 15 kt.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 301519 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 619 AM AKST Thu Nov 30 2023


SYNOPSIS
Moderate southerly chinook winds will develop across the Alaska Range today and continue into this evening then decrease late tonight. This will cause temperatures across most of Northern Alaska to remain well above normal through Fri. The Interior will cool closer to normal over the weekend, while the West Coast and Arctic Coast will remain above normal into early next week due to the open water in those areas.

Southeast winds gusting 45 to 55 mph at Delta Junction will continue into this evening. South winds gusting to 55 mph through Alaska Range Passes will develop later this morning and continue into this evening.

East winds gusting 30 to 40 mph over Dalton Highway Summits between the Yukon River and Coldfoot will continue into this afternoon and cause reduced visibility in blowing snow. These winds will decrease this evening and visibility will improve.

Snow will occur over the South Slopes of Alaska Range today and tonight with 1-2 inches accumulation. A slight chance of snow over Central Interior and Western Alaska will occur today. Tonight and Friday will see a chance to likely snow over the Western and Central Interior and over Western North Slope and West Coast. Snow will diminish from the east Fri night and Sat. Expect several inches of snow over the Western Interior and West Coast from tonight into Fri, with another several inches possible over the far western Interior and West Coast Fri night into Sat.

Fog over much of the West Coast of Alaska will thin today, while fog along the Arctic Coast will persist into Fri. There is

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over Eastern Russia and the Bering Sea with a ridge over Western Alaska.
A series of strong short wave troughs will rotate around the long wave trough and move north across Alaska. These short waves will gradually erode the long wave ridge and pull the long wave trough east over AK this weekend. This will cause cooling this weekend over Northern AK.

A short wave trough that lies from Kotzebue to Utqiagvik will move northeast over the CHukchi Sea this afternoon. This is causing light snow over NW AK that will diminish this afternoon.

A second and stronger short wave trough that lies from the YK Delta to the Northern Gulf of AK coast will move to the YK Delta to Fairbanks to Eagle by 3pm Sun, to the YK Delta to Umiat to Old Crow by 3am Fri, and to Nome to Utqiagvik to Old Crow by 3pm Fri.
This will cause moderate chinook winds across the Alaska Range to peak out this afternoon as it moves north of the Range, then decrease tonight as the trough moves north. Snow will develop this afternoon north of this trough over the Northern and West Interior and then over the West Coast and Western North Slope tonight and Fri.

Surface...
A 1000 mb low 100 NM northeast of Utqiagvik will deepen to 993 mb by 3am Fri, then move to 200 NM west of Utqiagvik as a 995 mb low by 3am Sat. A weather front stretching from this low east to Demarcation Point will move north of the eastern Arctic Coast of Alaska today, remain north of the Coast through Fri, then move back south along the eastern Arctic Coast on Fri night and Sat.
These features are causing areas of freezing fog over the Arctic Coast that will improve over the Eastern Arctic Coast this afternoon as winds turn southerly, while fog will continue over the Western Arctic Coast into Fri. Fog will move back over the Eastern Arctic Fri night as the front moves back south over the coast.

A low pressure trough stretching from the Yukon Delta west will dissipate today. This is causing isolated to scattered snow showers from the YK Delta west today.

A 980 mb low low in the Northern Gulf of Alaska will move to the Yukon Delta as a 988 mb low by 3am Fri, and to 100 NM southwest of Nome as a 988 mb low by 3am Sat.

A strong weather front over the southern Bering Sea will weaken slowly through Sat. A low in the Gulf of Alaska will move to 100 NM southeast of McGrath as a 984 mb low by 3pm Thu, to the Yukon Delta as a 988 mb low by 3am Fri, over Norton Sound as a 988 mb low by 3pm Fri, and to 100 NM southwest of Nome as a 988 mb low by 3am Sat. An occluded front stretching east from this low will move to McGrath to Livengood to Eagle by 3pm Thu, to the Yukon Delta to Bettles to Eagle by 3am Fri, then dissipate over the West Coast of Alaska on Fri. This will cause strong east winds to continue today along the Tanana River from Delta Junction west and over the Dalton highway summits from the Yukon River to Coldfoot.
The winds will decrease south of the front tonight. Snow will occur along and NW of the front this afternoon into Fri, with snow diminishing southwest of the front.

DISCUSSION
At 00Z, models all initialize 10-20 meters too low on 500 mb heights over Yakutat and Whitehorse, but initialize well in other locations. Models show similar solutions aloft through 3am Fri, then start to see differences in strength and speed of short waves. Favor a blend of models aloft through 3am Fri, then favor a blend of the ECMWF and Canadian models aloft for Fri into the weekend as those models show similar solutions aloft into the weekend and they are middle of the road solution on track and timing of features aloft compared to the NAM and GFS.

Moderate southerly chinook winds develop across the Alaska Range today and continue into this evening then decrease late tonight.
This is shown by most models where 700 mb winds are increasing from the south to 40kt this morning and continue into this evening then decrease. This is causing lee side troughing now along with east winds gusting to 45 mph at Delta Junction, which will increase to 55 mph today, and will cause south winds gusting to 55 mph through Alaska Range Passes to develop late this morning and continue into this evening.

With precip models show similar patterns through 3am Fri, then start to see differences in areal coverage after that. All models indicate a slight chance of snow over Western Alaska today, then a chance to likely snow over the Western and Central Interior, Western North Slope and West Coast tonight into Fri, with precip diminishing form the east Fri night and Sat. Will use a blend of models for precipitation areal coverage and amounts with the following highlights: Snow over south slope of Alaska Range today and tonight with 1-2 inches accumulation. A slight chance of snow over Central Interior and Western Alaska today, then a chance to likely snow over the Western and Central Interior along with Western North Slope and West Coast tonight into Fri, with precip diminishing from the east Fri night and Sat. Expect several inches of snow over the Western Interior and West Coast from tonight into Fri, with another several inches possible Fri night into Sat.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802-805.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806-807-811-857-858.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-807-810-811-856-857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-850-851-854.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.

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