Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Prudhoe Bay, AK

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prudhoe Bay, AK

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Area Discussion for - Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 282251 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 251 PM AKDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Flooding is still the main concern with ice jam flooding along with snowmelt flooding occuring along parts of the Lower Yukon as well as across related tributaries including the Innoko River.
Flooding is also still occurring upriver at Stevens Village.
Rising waters will also occur over the E Interior rivers and streams. See hydro section below for more info. Memorial Day will be cool and mostly cloudy, with numerous rain shower for much of the Interior.

Otherwise, a relatively wet and cool pattern will continue for the Interior through Wednesday. Some locations from the Fortymile Uplands to Minto Flats may receive heavy rain. A cool trough will bring rain and some mixed snow showers to the West Coast Monday into Tuesday. The trough will try to push east, bringing a further cool down and slightly drier weather for the Interior for Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a broad Gulf of Alaska low which is dominating the Mainland flow pattern. Rotating around this low is a low amplitude shortwave trough crossing from the Yukon into the SE Interior and E Alaska Range. This is bringing increasing rain rates as it shifts into the Upper Tanana Valley area and Fortymile Uplands. At the surface, there is a broad 994 mb low pressure trough over the Interior from Tanana to Northway. There is a marine front which has moved into the Western Interior, bringing fog and low stratus to the NW Arctic, with continued low stratus and fog over the Beaufort Sea Coast. Over the NW Arctic, there is a shortwave trough aloft which is shifting NE ahead of a digging arctic low which will bring a cold front south later in the period.

Model Discussion...
The numerical weather models are in a total state of chaos. They are quite unreliable past day one, and are not even completely reliable past 12 hours. This is due to significant issues associated with the lows moving into the E Interior from the Yukon, and the role deep, moist convection plays in creating unstable model runs. Long story short there is low confidence on who will get the heaviest rain, with the potential now shifting west toward Fairbanks or the Central Interior from the Minto Flats to Tanana. The one big difference that is higher confidence is that the bullseye which we had been targeting for the heaviest precip over the Fortymile Uplands is no longer going to be the target for heaviest precip, as the first easterly wave is swinging much farther west. This forecast will spreads heavier rain farther west with areas from Fortymile Uplands to the Central Interior all seeing a period of at least moderate rainfall for Memorial Day and into Tuesday. The chance for rain is now looking to last into Wednesday for the Interior with cooler conditions through Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon over parts of the Interior will gradually merge into a heavier band of showers across the White Mtns to Tanana Valley and the Salcha/Chena basins. This band of heavy showers will persist into Tuesday, shifting west into the Minto Flats during the day tomorrow. This means cooler and wetter weather will encompass most of the Interior for Memorial Day with temps struggling to push out of the 50s. Energy moving west from the Yukon Territory and a trough digging south from the NW arctic will keep some form of showers and maybe iso thunder in the forecast, along with cool temps, through Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Fog and stratus have invaded the Bering Strait and NW arctic as onshore marine winds have pushed inland. This will continue tonight with an arctic trough ushering in a different airmass into the coast with rain and mixed snow showers for the coast Monday and early Tuesday. The front stalls and showers will likely persist into Wednesday over parts of the NW Arctic. The cooler airmass will persist through Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of stratus and fog will continue across the North Slope tonight. As high pressure shifts to the east, weak shortwaves will move across the Brooks Range bringing scattered rain/snow showers on across mainly the western North Slope and Brooks Range Monday.
Rain and snow shower will expand east Tuesday thru Wednesday, as a stronger cold front pushes across northwest Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4 through 7... A deep upper low NW of AK will keep a general trough along the North Slope, while ridging will try to work into eastern interior AK from western Canada next weekend. The models are not in very good agreement on the pattern for days 6 and 7, with the 12z GFS much stronger with the ridging and warming. The preferred solution was more of a non-GFS blend.

FIRE WEATHER
High wetting rain chances for most of the Central and E Interior through Tue and showery and cooler lasting into Wed. Iso wet thunderstorms will occur this evening across parts of the southern Interior favoring the White Mtns, Fortymile Uplands, and Central Interior. Iso wet thunderstorms will shift northward Mon into the Yukon Flats and S Brooks Range.

HYDROLOGY
Flood warnings remain in effect for Stevens Village for snowmelt flooding, although there will be a gradual downtrend in waters through early next week with water levels upriver currently falling.

The flood warning continues for ice jam flooding along the Yukon Delta mouth across Emmonak, with the flood warning also including Alakanuk. A flood advisory has been issued for the remaining Lower Yukon from Grayling to the delta for a combination of ice jam and snowmelt flooding which will be in place well into next week.

Heavy rainfall will occur across the Fortymile Uplands with 1-2 inches of rainfall Sunday through Tuesday. Expect rapid rises in the Chena, Chatanika, Goodpaster, and Fortymile, and Salcha. Heavy rainfall in the E Alaska Range may result in rapid stream rises as well.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Warning for AKZ214 Flood Warning for AKZ220 PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Prudhoe Bay, AK

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for PAKU

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Wind History from AKU (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Prudhoe Bay, Alaska

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