Sunrise 4:15 AM   Sunset 11:45 PM Moonrise 5:58 PM   Moonset 1:25 AM

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PKZ129 Passage Canal- 401 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
.small craft advisory Thursday - .
Today - W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Tonight - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.Thu - W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near whittier in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.Thu night - W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.Fri - W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.Sat - W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.Sun - W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ100
No data

FXAK68 PAFC 180100 AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 500 PM AKDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

While the low marine stratus has retreated to the coast in many locations, it is expected to return by Tuesday morning with coastal communities along the Gulf Coast getting inundated by late this evening. Some communities such as Cordova will likely remain socked in by the low clouds through tonight. Communities along Cook Inlet will see a similar on-again/off-again trend, however Anchorage may remain clear due to a brief period of southeasterly flow from Turnagain Arm keeping the stratus at bay. However, confidence regarding this progression is middling due to differing flows at very low levels, so stay tuned as expectations may change.

Interior Southcentral likely to see the clear pattern persist Tuesday, however following Tuesday, the pattern will begin to slowly shift and become cooler due to increasing stratiform cloud cover moving in from the southern Gulf of Alaska. Kodiak will be entering a cooler pattern as well, however potentially wetter by midweek and beyond. The trough moving into the Gulf of Alaska is bringing with it a core of moisture and cooler air, the cause of the pattern shift across Southcentral. However, models agreement and consistency regarding the northward progression of this system is poor. The latest trend is that the system will not progress as far north, limiting the precipitation impact for Kodiak, will maintaining the cooler and cloudier pattern, before initiating more consistent rainfall by Wednesday. This system is driving the pattern shift across Southcentral, so stay tuned as more elements regarding its progression come more into line.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

A potent shortwave moving around the periphery of a weak, elongated low stationed along the Aleutian Chain has advanced northwest, initiating numerous thunderstorms already this afternoon, across the Western Alaska Range, Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim Delta where a Red Flag Warning is in effect until 10PM. Several hundred lightning strikes have already been noted. This level of activity isn't normally noted across this area, but is accented by strong vorticity aloft, steep lapse rates and deep mixing heights, skinny CAPE soundings and enough shear within the atmospheric column to allow prolonged thunderstorm life-cycles, capable of producing small hail and ample lightning across the areas noted above.

This shortwave will advance north over the course of the afternoon and evening, finally diminishing in energy and getting absorbed into the upper level flow by morning. Behind it, a quieter, slightly cooler and more stable air mass will be ushered in, bringing a period of calm (and light rain showers) through midweek.

To the south and west across the Aleutian Chain and Pribs, periods of rain will continue under a south to southeasterly flow as the elongated low tightens and moves north into the Southern Bering Sea. The persistent southerly to southeasterly winds will result in gap wind gusts ranging from 15 to 25 kts through Wednesday across the Eastern Aleutians and AKPen.

-AB



.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Model agreement is pretty good until around Sunday and the GFS becomes the outlier. For Friday, mainland Alaska will be separated by low pressure over the Gulf and high pressure to the north. Any easterly waves coupled with instability over the mainland could lead to chances for convection. A progressive ridge over the Bering Sea will be moving towards Southwest Alaska where low stratus and fog will be possible. Farther west is a North Pacific low with a front transecting the Western Aleutians. Precipitation will accompany primarily small craft winds are expected. Gusts could approach gales, but are not expected at this time. By Saturday, the ridge will have moved across mainland Alaska and overall flow appears weaker, but the slight chances for showers will linger, especially over higher terrain and thunderstorms appear less likely for the weekend. Sunnier and drier weather is possible for the upcoming weekend though. Over the Aleutians, the low will move along the Aleutian Chain with the front reaching the Pribilof and the Eastern Aleutians. Model agreement falls apart later Sunday through Monday. GFS is highlighting a vigorous low into the Bering Sea, though the representative forecast is leaning towards a more mild weather with weak lows and more progressive flow that is similar to what has been occurring more recently.

AVIATION

PANC...Stratus with IFR to LIFR conditions continue to linger over much of Cook Inlet today. The mean flow in the first few thousands of feet of the atmosphere had a bit of a southeast component in the vicinity of Anchorage. However, this flow will back toward the southwest this afternoon through tonight, leading to increasing likelihood of fog and/or stratus reaching the terminal sometime tonight or Tuesday morning. For now, have introduced vicinity fog to indicate that possibility. If fog/stratus does develop, expect it would clear out during the day Tuesday due to increasing southeast flow aloft along with sunshine and warming of the surface.

Winds will remain light.

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Anchorage
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:25 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:18 AM AKDT     26.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:20 AM AKDT     2.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:41 PM AKDT     23.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:33 PM AKDT     7.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Anchorage, Alaska (2) (expired 1999-08-03), Tide feet

Anchorage
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:25 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:18 AM AKDT     26.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:19 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:20 AM AKDT     2.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:41 PM AKDT     24.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:33 PM AKDT     7.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:41 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Anchorage, Alaska, Tide feet

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