Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hope, AK

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Currently, satellite imagery shows a ridge over the Aleutian Chain and the Bering Sea with an upper level low over Norton Sound. Moisture continues to ride along the periphery of the ridge, with showers being seen from Shemya through the Pribilof Islands to the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPen). The upper low moves southwards across Southwest into Bristol Bay today. This will interact with the plume of moisture and bring widespread light rain for most of Southwest. For Bristol Bay and marine areas on the Bering side of the AKPen, this low will enhance northwesterly winds to small-craft strength. Winds will be strongest through gaps, especially in the southern AKPen into the eastern Aleutians. The heaviest precipitation will move along the Bristol Bay coast Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, heaviest precipitation shifts to the AKPen. The low moves into the Gulf Saturday night. Precipitation will taper off from west to east Saturday evening, lingering the longest over the AKPen. Winds also begin to subside Saturday evening across Bristol Bay.

Sunday looks to be dry and calm for most of Southwest and the northern AKPen as the ridge remains established to the south. A surface trough moving through Sunday evening may briefly enhance winds in eastern Bristol Bay. To the southwest, the plume of moisture remains and likely sets up from the Pribilofs down to the far southern AKPen and eastern Aleutians. This will promote continued rainfall for these areas, with heaviest precipitation in areas of winds between Nelson Lagoon and Nikolski. The strongest winds will set up here too, with westerly winds occasionally reaching small-craft levels, especially through Unimak Pass and around Cold Bay Sunday night into Monday morning.

By Monday, a front looks to move into the Bering and will begin to flatten the ridge. This likely brings a swath of precipitation to the Western Aleutian Chain. Additionally, a Chukotka trough dips into Southwest, bringing more chances of rain to the region and increasing wind speeds across Bristol Bay.

-PA/JAR

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

By Tuesday, weak ridging persists over the Bering, with weak troughs in the southern and eastern Gulf of Alaska. This fairly inactive pattern will allow for less rainfall over the area and generally weaker wind flow through the region. By Wednesday and Thursday, the ridging shifts eastward and slowly flattens as the pattern over the Aleutians and Bering becomes increasingly more progressive. The broad weak trough over much of Alaska and the Gulf will help to return rain chances to Southwest by Thursday.
However, by Wednesday, uncertainty grows as model agreement degrades considerably. Temperatures are on track to stay below normal for late July for all of the Southcentral and Southwest Alaska in part due to rain chances returning, and near normal to above normal for the Bering Sea.

-CL

AVIATION

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Winds shift from northerly to westerly through tomorrow afternoon.