Sunrise 3:56 AM   Sunset 9:54 PM Moonrise 1:37 AM   Moonset 4:08 PM

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PKZ643 Cape Edgecumbe To Cape Spencer Out To 15 Nm- 331 Am Akdt Sun Jun 2 2024
.small craft advisory through this afternoon - .
Today - E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Tonight - S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Mon - S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Mon night - SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Tue - E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Wed - S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Thu - S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

PKZ600
No data

FXAK67 PAJK 021529 CCA AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 431 AM AKDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SHORT TERM
/ through Sunday night / Weather front rotating north over the eastern half of the Gulf of Alaska and the Southern Panhandle about old parent low over the northwestern portion of the gulf. The front is spreading rain into the southern half of the panhandle, and the easterly flow because of the positioning is holding off much of the PoP chances for the northern third portion the chance level or less. The best winds with the front will be off shore the outer coast and coastal area north to near Cross Sound and into the inner channels like Clarence Strait, Southern Chatham Strait, and Sumner Strait.

The front will be weakening through the day as it moves into the central panhandle, so am not expecting the chances of rain to increase too much over the northern third of the panhandle, and Lynn Canal may keep the northerly wind of 5 to 15 knots into tonight.


LONG TERM
/ Monday through Saturday/ Little changes to the long term outlook which remains active for the next week as a broad upper trough remains in place over a majority of the state. Upper level low pressure will also be a semi permanent feature in the gulf, leading to periods of wet weather and occasionally stronger systems.
Due this active pattern, model uncertainty on timing and intensity begins to deviate more beyond mid week, leading to lower forecaster confidence for that timeframe.

One bright spot will be right at the start of the mid range forecast period as Monday looks to be a decent break for the panhandle between systems alluded to in the short range discussion. Mid level drying will inhibit shower development with more breaks in cloud cover during the day and overall lighter winds for the inner channels.

The primary system of note is set to impact SE Alaska has the potential to be more impactful due to it incorporating the remnants of a former tropical system (Tropical Storm Ewiniar). A strong jet will propel this system towards Haida Gwaii Monday before it begins to recurve northward and northwestward on Tuesday. Unlike the Sunday storm, this one will likely bring moderate rain to a majority of the panhandle as it transits the gulf, with the heaviest rain still expected for the southern panhandle. The storm itself is expected to have substantial embedded moisture, while a significant plume of moisture will be primarily aimed further south toward the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Models have come into further agreement that this system will begin to weaken before it makes its turn north and west into the central gulf. However, this system still has the potential to produce frequent high wind gusts of 45 kt or more for Dixon Entrance into Clarence Strait and southern Prince of Wales Island as it approaches and makes its turn northward.
Once again the overall track of this feature and how healthy the storm is will play a major role into how the wind field sets up along the inside passage. At minimum, small craft conditions with winds of 25+ kt can be expected to follow NE of the feature along the outer coast Tuesday and potentially into Wednesday, with modest increases in winds in the inside waters as well with highest winds currently expected near Dixon Entrance.

As mentioned above, the forecast beyond Tuesday's system is active but not as clear in terms of timing of significant features due to increasing divergence in model solutions. Overall expect continued unsettled weather with slightly cooler temperatures and continuing chances for showers.

AVIATION
New front moving in from the gulf with deteriorating conditions over the Southern Panhandle. CIG and VIS dropping down to MVFR conditions with some isolated IFR. Winds increasing with some turbulence and LLWS. Northern panhandle mostly VFR for next 24 hours with lighter winds. Improving conditions expected into Sunday night for the south as front shears apart.

AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-651-652-661>664-671- 672.

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Povorotni Island
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Sun -- 02:36 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:11 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 04:28 AM AKDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:26 AM AKDT     12.27 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:29 PM AKDT     2.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:06 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:50 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:38 PM AKDT     15.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Povorotni Island, Pogibshi Point, Peril Strait, Alaska, Tide feet

Sergius Narrows
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Sun -- 02:14 AM AKDT     0.14 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:37 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:12 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 04:45 AM AKDT     6.09 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:28 AM AKDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:01 AM AKDT     -5.39 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:40 PM AKDT     0.05 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:06 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:10 PM AKDT     6.10 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:45 PM AKDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:49 PM AKDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:28 PM AKDT     -5.82 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sergius Narrows, Peril Strait, Alaska Current, knots

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