DISCUSSION
A moderate trade wind pattern will continue through the weekend with a weakening surface ridge far north of the islands. A mid to upper level ridge overhead will maintain the stable conditions, which will limit rainfall amounts. Showers will be focused over the windward sides of the islands, with a few afternoon showers over the Kona slopes of the Big Island. No changes to the forecast this morning, and not expecting any significant changes with the afternoon package.

As we head into next week, trades are expected to nudge upwards as the pressure gradient over the islands tightens Monday night or Tuesday. These slightly stronger winds will then persist through the remainder of the new week. The GFS and ECMWF suggest an increase in moisture starting Tuesday which could cause an uptick in windward focused showers.

AVIATION
A band of moisture moved across the smaller islands last night resulting in widespread MVFR for areas between Maui and Oahu.
Expect any lingering MVFR cigs to continue to improve this morning as the sun gets higher in the sky. Otherwise, moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through the weekend with clouds and passing MVFR showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Some of these showers may spill over into leeward areas during the overnight hours, but conditions should remain mainly VFR.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect to tempo mountain obscuration for Oahu, Molokai, and Maui. Conditions across these islands will continue to improve this morning and will likely drop AIRMET Sierra with the next update. Otherwise, no other AIRMETs are in effect.



MARINE

Moderate to locally fresh trades will continue today and may weaken briefly to gentle to locally fresh Saturday as a low northeast of the state further develops, disrupting the broad surface ridge that is driving the trades. The low will weaken and dissipate far north of the state over the rest of the weekend and into early next week allowing for the broad ridge to strengthen north of the state. Typical moderate to locally strong trades are expected to return during the first half next week along with Small Craft conditions for typically windy zones.

Surf will remain small along all shores through the forecast period. A mix of small, short period south southeast swell and small, medium period south swell will keep small surf along south facing shores through today. Over the weekend a small, short to medium period southeast swell will become more dominate keeping some small surf for the better exposed areas. Background south southwest swells will keep south facing shores from going flat through much of next week.

Overlapping small, medium period northeast and northwest swells are expected to arrive Saturday that could provide a small bump for northern exposures through the weekend. Otherwise, near normal summertime flat conditions are expected for north facing shores through the rest of the forecast period. Even though the tradewind swell will be on a slight decline through the weekend, the northeast swell could keep small surf along exposed east facing shores. Typical, choppy east facing shore surf will gradually build next week as trades strengthen.

The combination of higher than normal water levels, and afternoon high tides, continue to result in water levels running over half a foot above guidance around Big Island and Maui County pushing water levels above the 3 foot Mean Lower Low Water threshold.
This will continue to create minor coastal flooding issues for both Big Island and Maui County through the weekend mainly around the afternoon high tide cycle.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.