Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kailua, HI

SHORT TERM UPDATE
Bands of high level cirrus and middle level alto cumulus clouds continue to stream across the Hawaiian Islands under the influence of a diverging upper level Sub Tropical Jet stream. Chances of showers in a light and variable wind pattern remain in the forecast through Thursday. Easterly trades will build back into the Hawaii region from Thursday night through Saturday with subtle drying trends.

The forecast grids look good, no evening updates.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 PM HST Wed Apr 15 2026

This afternoon, mid- and high clouds associated with the subtropical jet aloft continue to stream across the islands. At the surface, weak southeasterly flow is prevailing, which has allowed for afternoon sea breeze-induced buildups of low clouds along select leeward and interior locations as well. With that said, rainfall has been quite light and sparse today, with 12 hour totals as of press time showing largely a couple hundredths of an inch at most.

Light winds will linger into Thursday, maintained as low pressure north of the islands and the trailing front north of the islands moves northeast farther from the islands. Expect daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes through Thursday, with building clouds and brief showers over island interiors during the afternoon hours, followed by clearing each night.

High pressure passing far north of the islands from Thursday night into Saturday will allow moderate easterly trade winds to briefly return to the region. These moderate trades will likely be strong enough to limit sea breeze development to terrain sheltered areas of the islands. Increasing stability and subsidence will also coincide with this period, initiating a slight drying trend.

Global models continue to suggest that a low pressure system will develop north of the state by Sunday, though there remain some differences in timing and location. Winds will also veer back southerly across the islands, drawing moisture northward in the vicinity. As the previous discussions have mentioned, as of now the low appears to track far enough north to limit heavy rain potential over the islands, though increasing instability and shower chances are possible during the second half of the weekend and into the first of next week. While moisture availability appears to be a limiting factor at this time, upper troughing (and an eventual upper low) developing over the state, and at least some modest vertical motion during the first half of next week, warrant keeping an eye on the forecast for now.

AVIATION
Issued at 400 PM HST Wed Apr 15 2026

Mostly VFR through Thursday. Bands of mid-level precipitation continue moving northeast across the area this afternoon, but are not expected to create MVFR conditions. Generally light southeast winds today will become more easterly overnight and Thursday as trades return.

No AIRMETs in effect, and none are expected.

MARINE
Troughing to the west maintains gentle to locally moderate ESE winds through Thursday. The strongest breezes will occur through the typical windy channels surrounding Maui and the Big Island.
Building high pressure then supports moderate to locally fresh easterly trades across the waters Friday into Saturday. Winds may briefly reach Small Craft Advisory thresholds on Saturday. A low pressure system developing to our NW on Sunday will cause the trades to weaken a notch and veer towards the ESE. Gentle to moderate ESE winds are expected Sunday into early next week.

A small, short-period, NNW swell will fade out on Thursday. Small background energy from the west will be possible this weekend into early next week from Typhoon Sinlaku, but confidence remains low. A much larger northwest to west-northwest swell is possible towards the end of next week as Typhoon Sinlaku makes an extratropical transition early next week.

A small to moderate, medium-period, SSE swell will boost surf along S shores through Friday then lower over the weekend. Surf along E shores remains below the seasonal average as trades remain light.
However, increasing trades by week's end should brings a slight bump to surf. Low pressure advancing S along the W coast of the US next week sends a small, medium period NE swell toward the islands by midweek.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.