Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morris, NY
July 3, 2024 4:27 PM EDT (20:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:29 AM Sunset 9:14 PM Moonrise 1:47 AM Moonset 6:44 PM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 031948 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 348 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Winds will remain gusty from the south this evening, then diminish during the overnight hours as a front moves through.
Some scattered rain showers are expected overnight but any lingering rain showers will come to an end by Thursday morning.
Quiet weather is expected Thursday through Friday before shower/thunderstorm chances increase Friday night into Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...Mostly dry weather with gusty south winds is expected this evening before showers begin overnight.
Wind gusts will be strongest over the Champlain Valley, where southerly channeled flow will result in continued wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range, locally up to 35 mph near Lake Champlain. Winds will peak this afternoon into this evening, before gradually diminishing overnight.
After the passage of today's warm front, dewpoints will climb this evening/overnight as we tap into a moisture plume to our southwest. Consequently, expecting a fairly warm and muggy night especially for the western portion of our CWA A cold front/moisture boundary will move through overnight, accompanied by some rain showers. These showers will start between 9 PM and midnight over northern NY, between 11 PM and 3 AM over northwestern VT, and between 2 AM and 6 AM over southeastern VT.
Instability overnight will be very weak, if anything, so potential for an embedded thunderstorm appears low. However, cannot completely rule out a stray rumble of thunder overnight so have continued with a slight mention of thunder this evening into early overnight. After 2 AM, potential for thunderstorms further decreases and have used just shower wording in the rain forecast for early Thursday morning. Despite the passage of a frontal boundary overnight, the front is more of a moisture boundary than anything else. In fact, temperatures won't fall much at all as the front moves through. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s for the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valley, and in the low to mid 60s for the northern Adirondacks and eastern Vermont.
For Thursday morning, the front and associated rain showers will clear to the east, and most areas will remain dry for the rest of the day. However, there will be some vorticity maxima moving through the progressive flow aloft which could trigger an isolated shower/tstorm or two. Some very marginal instability will develop, with stronger instability potential hindered by poor mid-level lapse rates. In addition, will see drier air working in from the west which will also limit shower/tstorm potential. All said and done, have capped PoPs generally in the 5 to 15 percent range for Thursday. Highs will range from the low to upper 80s, with dewpoints in the 60s. Heat indices will briefly climb into the low 90s in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys, but will remain in the 80s elsewhere. Lows Thursday night will be int he 60s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will dominate the region Friday, bringing slightly above normal temperatures. The experimental heat risk product is showing 'moderate' risk for most of our CWA on Friday and Saturday. Humidity levels will remain elevated as well during this period, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. By late Friday night, the Saint Lawrence Valley will see PoPs increase in advance of a low pressure passing through.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...The low pressure will continue its transit through the CWA during the day Saturday. The passage of this system has the potential to bring the most impactful weather of the long term forecast. Ensemble forecasts are consistently showing thermodynamics that would support thunderstorm development, with 1.5" of PWAT these thunderstorms have the potential to create localized heavy rainfall. The good news is the better dynamics continue to be south of our CWA
High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday, bringing back our clear skies and above normal temperatures. At the far end of the forecast, one more trough of low pressure will pass over the northeast by the middle of next week.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18Z Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through 06Z with just some mid-level clouds spreading over. A front will move through overnight, accompanied by ceilings lowering to low VFR/MVFR and some rain showers. Visibilities will drop to the 4-6SM range within showers, but any further reductions in visibilities would be very brief. Ceilings will lift back towards VFR after 15Z. Chances for thunder during the overnight hours are very low, and have omitted mention of any TS in the TAFs.
Gusty south winds in the 20 to 30 knot range will continue through 00Z, then diminish to 10 to 20 knots through 06Z and under 10 knots after 00Z. Some brief periods of marginal low- level wind shear are expected overnight as a 30-40 knot southwesterly low-level jet moves overhead.
Outlook...
Independence Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
MARINE
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for south winds in the 25 to 35 knot range. These winds will continue this evening before diminishing to 15 to 25 knots overnight. Waves today will be in the 1-3 foot range. Will likely be able to take down the Lake Wind Advisory in the Thursday morning hours.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 348 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Winds will remain gusty from the south this evening, then diminish during the overnight hours as a front moves through.
Some scattered rain showers are expected overnight but any lingering rain showers will come to an end by Thursday morning.
Quiet weather is expected Thursday through Friday before shower/thunderstorm chances increase Friday night into Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...Mostly dry weather with gusty south winds is expected this evening before showers begin overnight.
Wind gusts will be strongest over the Champlain Valley, where southerly channeled flow will result in continued wind gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range, locally up to 35 mph near Lake Champlain. Winds will peak this afternoon into this evening, before gradually diminishing overnight.
After the passage of today's warm front, dewpoints will climb this evening/overnight as we tap into a moisture plume to our southwest. Consequently, expecting a fairly warm and muggy night especially for the western portion of our CWA A cold front/moisture boundary will move through overnight, accompanied by some rain showers. These showers will start between 9 PM and midnight over northern NY, between 11 PM and 3 AM over northwestern VT, and between 2 AM and 6 AM over southeastern VT.
Instability overnight will be very weak, if anything, so potential for an embedded thunderstorm appears low. However, cannot completely rule out a stray rumble of thunder overnight so have continued with a slight mention of thunder this evening into early overnight. After 2 AM, potential for thunderstorms further decreases and have used just shower wording in the rain forecast for early Thursday morning. Despite the passage of a frontal boundary overnight, the front is more of a moisture boundary than anything else. In fact, temperatures won't fall much at all as the front moves through. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s for the Champlain and Saint Lawrence Valley, and in the low to mid 60s for the northern Adirondacks and eastern Vermont.
For Thursday morning, the front and associated rain showers will clear to the east, and most areas will remain dry for the rest of the day. However, there will be some vorticity maxima moving through the progressive flow aloft which could trigger an isolated shower/tstorm or two. Some very marginal instability will develop, with stronger instability potential hindered by poor mid-level lapse rates. In addition, will see drier air working in from the west which will also limit shower/tstorm potential. All said and done, have capped PoPs generally in the 5 to 15 percent range for Thursday. Highs will range from the low to upper 80s, with dewpoints in the 60s. Heat indices will briefly climb into the low 90s in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys, but will remain in the 80s elsewhere. Lows Thursday night will be int he 60s.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will dominate the region Friday, bringing slightly above normal temperatures. The experimental heat risk product is showing 'moderate' risk for most of our CWA on Friday and Saturday. Humidity levels will remain elevated as well during this period, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. By late Friday night, the Saint Lawrence Valley will see PoPs increase in advance of a low pressure passing through.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 314 PM EDT Wednesday...The low pressure will continue its transit through the CWA during the day Saturday. The passage of this system has the potential to bring the most impactful weather of the long term forecast. Ensemble forecasts are consistently showing thermodynamics that would support thunderstorm development, with 1.5" of PWAT these thunderstorms have the potential to create localized heavy rainfall. The good news is the better dynamics continue to be south of our CWA
High pressure returns for Sunday and Monday, bringing back our clear skies and above normal temperatures. At the far end of the forecast, one more trough of low pressure will pass over the northeast by the middle of next week.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 18Z Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions expected through 06Z with just some mid-level clouds spreading over. A front will move through overnight, accompanied by ceilings lowering to low VFR/MVFR and some rain showers. Visibilities will drop to the 4-6SM range within showers, but any further reductions in visibilities would be very brief. Ceilings will lift back towards VFR after 15Z. Chances for thunder during the overnight hours are very low, and have omitted mention of any TS in the TAFs.
Gusty south winds in the 20 to 30 knot range will continue through 00Z, then diminish to 10 to 20 knots through 06Z and under 10 knots after 00Z. Some brief periods of marginal low- level wind shear are expected overnight as a 30-40 knot southwesterly low-level jet moves overhead.
Outlook...
Independence Day: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
MARINE
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for south winds in the 25 to 35 knot range. These winds will continue this evening before diminishing to 15 to 25 knots overnight. Waves today will be in the 1-3 foot range. Will likely be able to take down the Lake Wind Advisory in the Thursday morning hours.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
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