Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Central Aguirre, PR
May 5, 2024 11:36 PM CST (05:36 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:19 AM Sunset 5:55 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM Moonset 4:20 PM |
FXCA62 TJSJ 052029 AFDSJU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 429 PM AST Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
The Flood Watch has ended for all of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands however conditions remain unstable. Persistent rain could lead to urban and small- stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and debris flow. The local atmosphere's moisture content is forecast to remain above normal levels through at least Thursday, with a drying trend anticipated by the end of the week.
A northerly swell is expected to begin to arrive late Tuesday, lasting through the end of the week.
SHORT TERM
Tonight Through Tuesday...
It was a calm morning with light to no wind for many sections of Puerto Rico and the USVI. However as the sun came out, heat indices rose to values well over 100 with 113 recorded in Cotton Valley, St.
Croix and nearly as high across other sections across western Puerto Rico. The first shower was seen over Rio Grande and shortly after around 2PM thunderstorms started to form across the interior to northern sections of PR leaving up to around 2 inches in Morovis and an inch in multiple sections of northern PR. Activity is expected to linger through the evening hours with more of a concentration on the interior to northern sections of Puerto Rico.
A moist local atmosphere with precipitable water values above 2 inches, at least 1 standard deviation above climatological normal, will exist through midweek. Along with plenty of moisture, an upper- level jet will persist across the northern Caribbean Basin through this time, providing ventilation aloft. High pressure building across the western Atlantic through Wednesday will maintain a moderate easterly flow across the region, however due to it's weaker strength, land breezes are expected to develop during the overnight hours.
Under these conditions, persistent showers and thunderstorms are possible at times, especially during the afternoon hours once diurnal heating, orographic effects, and seabreeze convergence enhances vertical lifting. For tonight, eastern sections of Puerto Rico have the best chance to receive rainfall. During the afternoons of both tomorrow and Wednesday, rain is possible across most of the area within mainland Puerto Rico. With the strongest activity there may be flooding impacts due to the much above normal river streamflows, and saturated soils where any period of moderate to locally heavy rain could result in dangerous flooding problems as well as sudden mudslides/landslides. Currently, the most active day, based on the latest model guidance could be expected between late Monday into Tuesday with slightly cooler 500 mb temperatures which can increase the chance of thunderstorms.
LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday...
/from previous discussion/
By Wednesday, the latest models agree that a surface high pressure will remain dominating over the central Atlantic promoting light to moderate northeasterly to easterly winds through the end of the workweek. At upper levels, another trough should move through Thursday, maintaining unstable conditions across the islands with a moist airmass lingering over the local area. The Precipitable Water (PWAT) models are suggesting above-normal climatological levels through at least next Thursday; with values around 1.90-2.20 inches. Consequently, the wet pattern is expected to continue by midweek with showers and possible isolated thunderstorms development each afternoon. We encourage residents and visitors to remain weather-aware because any additional shower activity over saturated soils will further enhance the potential for flash flooding and mudslides.
Thursday night into the weekend, a mid to upper-level ridge extends into the local area from the western Caribbean, bringing a drier airmass into the upper levels with PWAT values around normal levels, decreasing the potential for shower development. By Saturday, the high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will promote southeasterly winds across our area. As a result, diurnal and local effects can promote afternoon showers and thunderstorm activity mainly across the interior to western Puerto Rico, but not expecting significant accumulations since moisture levels should be lower. In addition, a Saharan Air Layer should be near the area, but the greater concentrations should stay over the Caribbean waters.
In summary, expect unstable weather conditions to continue by the middle of the week, then more stable conditions are anticipated from Friday onwards.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Mostly VFR conditions expected for the USVI and TJPS terminals this afternoon, but SHRA and TSRA expected to linger through 22Z around the Cordillera Central and near TJSJ and TJBQ. Periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings are expected through this time. SHRA are expected to increase after 22Z across the Atlantic waters, reaching the USVI and TJSJ terminals at times, with limited impacts to operations anticipated. Winds will be light, shifting from the east around 03-06Z, and then from the NE at 5-8 kts.
MARINE
A surface high pressure extending from the western to central Atlantic will promote light to moderate easterly winds through the forecast period. A northeasterly swell is expected to spread across the local waters by Tuesday and gradually increase seas to around 5 to 6 feet through the end of the week. Remnant moisture from the induced surface trough located to our east will continue to promote shower and isolated thunderstorms development across the regional waters during the afternoon and evening for the next several days.
HYDROLOGY
The Flood Watch was canceled due to a reduction in expected rainfall. However sensitive areas should take caution due to the much above normal river streamflows, and saturated soils where any period of moderate to locally heavy rain could result in dangerous flooding problems as well as sudden mudslides/landslides.
BEACH FORECAST...
Low risk of rip currents should continue through Tuesday, then becoming moderate from Wednesday onwards. However, life- threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of jetties, and piers.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 429 PM AST Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
The Flood Watch has ended for all of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands however conditions remain unstable. Persistent rain could lead to urban and small- stream flooding, localized flash flooding, and debris flow. The local atmosphere's moisture content is forecast to remain above normal levels through at least Thursday, with a drying trend anticipated by the end of the week.
A northerly swell is expected to begin to arrive late Tuesday, lasting through the end of the week.
SHORT TERM
Tonight Through Tuesday...
It was a calm morning with light to no wind for many sections of Puerto Rico and the USVI. However as the sun came out, heat indices rose to values well over 100 with 113 recorded in Cotton Valley, St.
Croix and nearly as high across other sections across western Puerto Rico. The first shower was seen over Rio Grande and shortly after around 2PM thunderstorms started to form across the interior to northern sections of PR leaving up to around 2 inches in Morovis and an inch in multiple sections of northern PR. Activity is expected to linger through the evening hours with more of a concentration on the interior to northern sections of Puerto Rico.
A moist local atmosphere with precipitable water values above 2 inches, at least 1 standard deviation above climatological normal, will exist through midweek. Along with plenty of moisture, an upper- level jet will persist across the northern Caribbean Basin through this time, providing ventilation aloft. High pressure building across the western Atlantic through Wednesday will maintain a moderate easterly flow across the region, however due to it's weaker strength, land breezes are expected to develop during the overnight hours.
Under these conditions, persistent showers and thunderstorms are possible at times, especially during the afternoon hours once diurnal heating, orographic effects, and seabreeze convergence enhances vertical lifting. For tonight, eastern sections of Puerto Rico have the best chance to receive rainfall. During the afternoons of both tomorrow and Wednesday, rain is possible across most of the area within mainland Puerto Rico. With the strongest activity there may be flooding impacts due to the much above normal river streamflows, and saturated soils where any period of moderate to locally heavy rain could result in dangerous flooding problems as well as sudden mudslides/landslides. Currently, the most active day, based on the latest model guidance could be expected between late Monday into Tuesday with slightly cooler 500 mb temperatures which can increase the chance of thunderstorms.
LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday...
/from previous discussion/
By Wednesday, the latest models agree that a surface high pressure will remain dominating over the central Atlantic promoting light to moderate northeasterly to easterly winds through the end of the workweek. At upper levels, another trough should move through Thursday, maintaining unstable conditions across the islands with a moist airmass lingering over the local area. The Precipitable Water (PWAT) models are suggesting above-normal climatological levels through at least next Thursday; with values around 1.90-2.20 inches. Consequently, the wet pattern is expected to continue by midweek with showers and possible isolated thunderstorms development each afternoon. We encourage residents and visitors to remain weather-aware because any additional shower activity over saturated soils will further enhance the potential for flash flooding and mudslides.
Thursday night into the weekend, a mid to upper-level ridge extends into the local area from the western Caribbean, bringing a drier airmass into the upper levels with PWAT values around normal levels, decreasing the potential for shower development. By Saturday, the high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will promote southeasterly winds across our area. As a result, diurnal and local effects can promote afternoon showers and thunderstorm activity mainly across the interior to western Puerto Rico, but not expecting significant accumulations since moisture levels should be lower. In addition, a Saharan Air Layer should be near the area, but the greater concentrations should stay over the Caribbean waters.
In summary, expect unstable weather conditions to continue by the middle of the week, then more stable conditions are anticipated from Friday onwards.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Mostly VFR conditions expected for the USVI and TJPS terminals this afternoon, but SHRA and TSRA expected to linger through 22Z around the Cordillera Central and near TJSJ and TJBQ. Periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings are expected through this time. SHRA are expected to increase after 22Z across the Atlantic waters, reaching the USVI and TJSJ terminals at times, with limited impacts to operations anticipated. Winds will be light, shifting from the east around 03-06Z, and then from the NE at 5-8 kts.
MARINE
A surface high pressure extending from the western to central Atlantic will promote light to moderate easterly winds through the forecast period. A northeasterly swell is expected to spread across the local waters by Tuesday and gradually increase seas to around 5 to 6 feet through the end of the week. Remnant moisture from the induced surface trough located to our east will continue to promote shower and isolated thunderstorms development across the regional waters during the afternoon and evening for the next several days.
HYDROLOGY
The Flood Watch was canceled due to a reduction in expected rainfall. However sensitive areas should take caution due to the much above normal river streamflows, and saturated soils where any period of moderate to locally heavy rain could result in dangerous flooding problems as well as sudden mudslides/landslides.
BEACH FORECAST...
Low risk of rip currents should continue through Tuesday, then becoming moderate from Wednesday onwards. However, life- threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of jetties, and piers.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
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