Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Arroyo, PR
May 15, 2024 3:14 AM CST (09:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:16 AM Sunset 5:57 PM Moonrise 2:09 PM Moonset 12:03 AM |
FXCA62 TJSJ 150831 AFDSJU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 431 AM AST Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A typical weather pattern is forecasted for the next several days, featuring afternoon showers across the interior sections of the island. An increase in shower activity is expected for the upcoming workweek due to the arrival of abundant tropical moisture and instability facilitated by a mid to upper-level trough.
Residents and visitors are urged to stay tuned for further updates for the upcoming workweek.
SHORT TERM
Today through Friday...
Skies were mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight with isolated passing showers noted over the offshore coastal waters. Some showers reached the north and east coastal areas but so far rainfall accumulations were less than a tenth of an inch. Overnight low temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coastal areas and in the mid 60s to low 70s in higher elevations and valleys. Surface winds were calm to light and variable.
During the rest of the morning, sunny skies will prevail with easterly winds around 5 to 10 mph. Local sea breezes can be expected during the afternoon with winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph with locally higher gusts along the coastal areas. Some diurnally induced shower development may occur across the central and west sections of Puerto Rico and mainly downwind of the U.S. Virgin Islands.
For the rest of the period, a mid-to upper level high-pressure system will continue spread eastwards across the region from the west and southwest Atlantic, while a surface high pressure builds across the west and central Atlantic. This will increase the trade wind cap inversion while eroding low level moisture through at least Thursday. Thereafter, another cold front will enter and cross the west Atlantic by Friday as the surface ridge shifts farther east into the central and northeast Atlantic. Recent analysis and the aerosol optical thickness products suggest light suspended Saharan dust particulates will continue to diminish today. Recent model guidance and satellite derived analysis initialized well and continue to suggest PWAT values ranging between 1.35 and 1.7 inches today, then slightly increase to between 1.5-1.8 inches Thursday through Friday as winds become more east to southeast and an easterly perturbation approaches the forecast areas along with an upper trough which will cross the west Atlantic by Friday. This will result in more unstable conditions aloft and better chance for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorm development.
The expected synoptic conditions are forecast to be less conducive for widespread or significant convective development,however shower development and isolated thunderstorm will remain possible each afternoon especially over parts of the central interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. The activity will be locally steered by the east to northeast low level wind flow. Overall expect mostly fair weather skies in most areas each day with isolated showers possible mainly across the central and west sections of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours due to local effects and the intense heating.
Expected Impacts
Warm temperatures will continue to be one of the main factors for the period, with daytime temperatures peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal and urban areas and mid to upper 80s at higher elevations. Maximum heat indices may range between 100-107 degrees Fahrenheit during the afternoon hours. Residents and visitors to the islands are urged to stay hydrated and limit direct sun exposure when possible.
There will be also be slight risk for minor urban and small stream flooding in isolated areas each day but locally heavy rains with the afternoon convection will lead to ponding of water on roads and poor drainage areas.
LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday...
A surface high pressure system extending from the central Atlantic will maintain southeasterly winds across the region in the initial phase of the long-term forecast. These winds will carry patches of tropical moisture to the local islands, enhancing the likelihood of shower formation, particularly in the afternoon. Most showers are anticipated to develop across the interior, the northwestern quadrant, and the San Juan metro area.
Some sections of the islands may experience clear skies in the mornings, coupled with available moisture, which could elevate heat indices, posing a limited to elevated heat threat for the northern coastal area of Puerto Rico.
Instability is expected to increase by late Sunday and persist throughout the forecast period as a mid to upper-level trough moves from the western Atlantic. According to guidance from global models such as the GFS and ECMWF, the strongest and most favorable side of the TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough)
and its associated jet stream will cover the local islands from Monday through Wednesday. With aloft instability and colder temperatures at mid-levels, abundant tropical moisture will be present at the surface, with precipitable water (PWAT) values exceeding climatological norms by over 2 inches. Consequently, a wet period is forecasted for all the islands, characterized by morning shower activity followed by widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Residents and visitors should anticipate periods of heavy showers and an increased risk of flooding from Tuesday through Wednesday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
VFR conds durg fcst prd. Isold SHRA fcst over the regional waters and en route btw islands
SCT OCNL BKN lyrs nr FL025
FL040.
VCSH at TJSJ/TISX/TIST til 15/12Z. Aftn convection with Isold TSRA psbl ovr central and west interior sections of PR with mountain obscuration fm 15/17Z-23Z. VCSH expected at the TJSJ/TJBQ/TJPS 15/18Z-15/23Z. Sfc wnds calm to lgt/vrb bcmg mainly fm E 10-12 kts with sea breeze variations and ocnly hir gusts aft 15/14Z.
MARINE
A surface high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the Central Atlantic will continue to promote light to moderate easterly winds across the region. With this pattern, seas will remain up to 4 feet across all the local waters and passages.
These conditions will prevail across the local waters during the period. Similar tranquil marine conditions will prevail for the coastal areas where the risk for rip currents will remain low for the next five days or so.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 431 AM AST Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A typical weather pattern is forecasted for the next several days, featuring afternoon showers across the interior sections of the island. An increase in shower activity is expected for the upcoming workweek due to the arrival of abundant tropical moisture and instability facilitated by a mid to upper-level trough.
Residents and visitors are urged to stay tuned for further updates for the upcoming workweek.
SHORT TERM
Today through Friday...
Skies were mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight with isolated passing showers noted over the offshore coastal waters. Some showers reached the north and east coastal areas but so far rainfall accumulations were less than a tenth of an inch. Overnight low temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coastal areas and in the mid 60s to low 70s in higher elevations and valleys. Surface winds were calm to light and variable.
During the rest of the morning, sunny skies will prevail with easterly winds around 5 to 10 mph. Local sea breezes can be expected during the afternoon with winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph with locally higher gusts along the coastal areas. Some diurnally induced shower development may occur across the central and west sections of Puerto Rico and mainly downwind of the U.S. Virgin Islands.
For the rest of the period, a mid-to upper level high-pressure system will continue spread eastwards across the region from the west and southwest Atlantic, while a surface high pressure builds across the west and central Atlantic. This will increase the trade wind cap inversion while eroding low level moisture through at least Thursday. Thereafter, another cold front will enter and cross the west Atlantic by Friday as the surface ridge shifts farther east into the central and northeast Atlantic. Recent analysis and the aerosol optical thickness products suggest light suspended Saharan dust particulates will continue to diminish today. Recent model guidance and satellite derived analysis initialized well and continue to suggest PWAT values ranging between 1.35 and 1.7 inches today, then slightly increase to between 1.5-1.8 inches Thursday through Friday as winds become more east to southeast and an easterly perturbation approaches the forecast areas along with an upper trough which will cross the west Atlantic by Friday. This will result in more unstable conditions aloft and better chance for afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorm development.
The expected synoptic conditions are forecast to be less conducive for widespread or significant convective development,however shower development and isolated thunderstorm will remain possible each afternoon especially over parts of the central interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. The activity will be locally steered by the east to northeast low level wind flow. Overall expect mostly fair weather skies in most areas each day with isolated showers possible mainly across the central and west sections of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours due to local effects and the intense heating.
Expected Impacts
Warm temperatures will continue to be one of the main factors for the period, with daytime temperatures peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coastal and urban areas and mid to upper 80s at higher elevations. Maximum heat indices may range between 100-107 degrees Fahrenheit during the afternoon hours. Residents and visitors to the islands are urged to stay hydrated and limit direct sun exposure when possible.
There will be also be slight risk for minor urban and small stream flooding in isolated areas each day but locally heavy rains with the afternoon convection will lead to ponding of water on roads and poor drainage areas.
LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday...
A surface high pressure system extending from the central Atlantic will maintain southeasterly winds across the region in the initial phase of the long-term forecast. These winds will carry patches of tropical moisture to the local islands, enhancing the likelihood of shower formation, particularly in the afternoon. Most showers are anticipated to develop across the interior, the northwestern quadrant, and the San Juan metro area.
Some sections of the islands may experience clear skies in the mornings, coupled with available moisture, which could elevate heat indices, posing a limited to elevated heat threat for the northern coastal area of Puerto Rico.
Instability is expected to increase by late Sunday and persist throughout the forecast period as a mid to upper-level trough moves from the western Atlantic. According to guidance from global models such as the GFS and ECMWF, the strongest and most favorable side of the TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough)
and its associated jet stream will cover the local islands from Monday through Wednesday. With aloft instability and colder temperatures at mid-levels, abundant tropical moisture will be present at the surface, with precipitable water (PWAT) values exceeding climatological norms by over 2 inches. Consequently, a wet period is forecasted for all the islands, characterized by morning shower activity followed by widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Residents and visitors should anticipate periods of heavy showers and an increased risk of flooding from Tuesday through Wednesday.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
VFR conds durg fcst prd. Isold SHRA fcst over the regional waters and en route btw islands
SCT OCNL BKN lyrs nr FL025
FL040.
VCSH at TJSJ/TISX/TIST til 15/12Z. Aftn convection with Isold TSRA psbl ovr central and west interior sections of PR with mountain obscuration fm 15/17Z-23Z. VCSH expected at the TJSJ/TJBQ/TJPS 15/18Z-15/23Z. Sfc wnds calm to lgt/vrb bcmg mainly fm E 10-12 kts with sea breeze variations and ocnly hir gusts aft 15/14Z.
MARINE
A surface high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the Central Atlantic will continue to promote light to moderate easterly winds across the region. With this pattern, seas will remain up to 4 feet across all the local waters and passages.
These conditions will prevail across the local waters during the period. Similar tranquil marine conditions will prevail for the coastal areas where the risk for rip currents will remain low for the next five days or so.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
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Virgin,Islands/San,Juan/Cayey,PR
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