Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Point, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 5:21PM Monday October 21, 2019 2:32 AM CST (08:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:05PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Point , TX
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location: 12.21, -97.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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Fxus64 kbro 210553 aab
afdbro
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service brownsville tx
1253 am cdt Mon oct 21 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation Ongoing convection producing wind gusts to around 40
knots will continue to impact hrl and bro at times through 10z. A
mix ofVFR MVFR with brief periods of ifr conditions will prevail
overnight into mid morning. Rain chances should begin to decrease
later this morning. A cold front is forecast to push through just
afternoon with winds shifting to a northerly direction for all
terminals by late this afternoon.

Prev discussion issued 703 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019

00z aviation update...

discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation... Flight categories have been bouncing betweenVFR and
MVFR through the day, and this trend is expected to continue
overnight. The better chances of lower vis CIGS will be during
pockets of rain showers, which should increase in coverage
overnight, especially for hrl and bro. Can't rule out a rumble of
thunder or two, especially (again) for hrl and bro. Rainfall
should begin to decrease Monday morning. A cold front is forecast
to push through just afternoon with winds shifting to a northerly
direction for all terminals by the end of this TAF cycle.

Prev discussion... Issued 428 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019
.Potential for heavy rainfall across extreme eastern portions of
the rio grande valley late tonight...

short term (now through Monday night): satellite and radar images
indicate isolated light rain showers continue to develop and move
across the CWA this afternoon as stronger convection continues to
develop further south along the northeast mexican coast while
tropical moisture from tropical storm priscilla along the southwest
mexican coast continues to move across central mexico into northeast
mexico. Satellite images estimate precipitable water values at least
2 inches across portions of northeast mexico into deep south texas
this afternoon. The potential exists for heavy rainfall across
extreme southeast portions of the CWA late tonight as a couple of
500mb shortwave troughs move across northeast mexico into deep south
tx tonight and with the abundant low to mid level moisture... Showers
and thunderstorms... Some possibly strong... Will develop across
eastern portions of the rio grande valley late tonight and move
eastward into the western gulf of mexico early Monday. Will continue
to keep rain chances high across the coastal sections of the cwa
tonight into early Monday as a result and mention locally heavy
rainfall possible late tonight with showers and thunderstorms across
the coastal sections. Rain chances will diminish from west to east
Monday as the 500mb trough across the central and southern portions
of the united states brings drier air and subsidence across
southwest texas into the upper rgv Mon afternoon. At the surface... A
cold front will be moving through the northern and western portions
of the CWA Monday and through the rest of the area Mon night. Cooler
air will filter into the northern ranchlands Mon night and the rgv
late Mon night into early tues morning.

Nos tide gages at south padre island are currently showing water
levels near 0 feet mhhw this afternoon but water levels will begin
to rise to near 1 feet mhhw this evening and approach 2 feet mhhw
late tonight as astronomical high tides return at 1:22 am Monday.

Will likely see minor coastal flooding return along the lower texas
coast tonight and continue through early Monday morning as easterly
swells offshore continue to move towards the coast tonight in
combination with the high tides. Will continue the coastal flood
advisory for the coastal sections of cameron... Willacy and kenedy
counties as a result.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday): weak zonal flow over deep
south texas will start the long term period. At the surface,
northeast flow in the wake of Monday's cold front will continue to
usher in dry and stable air into the region. Expect high
temperatures to reach the mid-upper 80s, to near 90 degrees west
of us 281 i69c. Wednesday morning temperatures will drop into the
60s, or near seasonal normal. On Wednesday, the aforementioned
cold front stationary front will begin to move back north as a
warm front, turning surface winds more easterly late Wednesday
morning to southeasterly by Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Furthermore, this will advect tropical moisture back into the area
and increase precipitation chances, mainly for the eastern and
southeastern portions of the cwa. Wednesday's afternoon highs
will remain about 4 to 7 degrees above seasonal normal, with highs
remaining in the mid-upper 80s, to near 90s in spots.

The forecast becomes more challenging beyond Wednesday as a
strong cold front approaches the rio grande valley and deep south
texas (stronger than Monday's front). Overall, yesterday's 00z
gfs and ECMWF solutions remain very similar (with minor changes)
to this morning's 12z model solutions. Please see the previous
long term forecast discussion for details. Thursday will start off
mild, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the
district. Generally light southeasterly winds should persist
through the afternoon, turning more easterly by the evening hours
as the cold front approaches. Peak heating should allow afternoon
high temperatures to reach the upper 80s lower 90s ahead of the
front, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Exact
timing of the cold front remains uncertain at this time. The
quicker, more aggressive 12z GFS solution pushes the cold front
through the northern ranchlands by early Thursday evening and
across the lower rgv late Thursday night, quickly dropping
temperatures into the 60s behind it. The slower, 12z ECMWF model
solution has the front passing through the morning on Friday.

Regardless of the timing, both model solutions have much cooler
and drier air, with breezy northerly winds behind the front.

Because timing of the front is still unknown, went ahead and
leaned more toward the quicker GFS solution, bringing the cold
front in late Thursday evening or night.

In the wake of the cold front Thursday night, high temperatures
on Friday and Saturday will be significantly cooler than days
prior, with temperatures generally in the low to middle 70s both
days, or about 5 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages. Likewise,
low temperatures starting Friday morning are expected to be quite
chilly; mostly clear skies will allow Saturday morning
temperatures to be the chilliest since march or april of this
year -- with widespread 50s and perhaps upper 40s in some
locations possible. Temperatures are expected to rebound closer to
seasonal average on Sunday, with highs back into the low to
middle 80s.

Marine (now through Monday night): seas were near 4 feet with south
to southeast winds near 16 knots at buoy020 early this afternoon.

Scec conditions will develop across the coastal waters tonight as
moderate to strong south to southeast winds develop in response to
low pressure developing across northeast mexico and a low level jet
developing across the lower texas coast late tonight. In
addition... Showers and thunderstorms... Some possibly strong... Will
develop across the coastal waters tonight into Monday and this will
provide unsettled weather conditions across the bay waters and
offshore waters as a result. The pressure gradient will weaken
across the lower texas coast Monday as showers and thunderstorms
across the coastal waters move further offshore. Light to moderate
south to southeast winds will prevail across the western gulf of
mexico Monday before a cold front moves into the coastal waters mon
night and moderate to strong northeast winds develop in the wake of
the front providing scec conditions across the coastal waters mon
night.

Tuesday through Friday night: marine conditions will continue to
be adverse and elevated through at least Wednesday behind the
passage of a cold front featuring increased northeasterly winds
and seas. Small craft advisory conditions will be likely for the
bay through Tuesday and across all or portions of the coastal gulf
waters into Wednesday night, possibly later. A slight improvement
in winds and seas will be possible Thursday afternoon before
conditions then deteriorate once again into early Friday with the
passage of an another strong cold front. Expect small craft
advisory conditions to return Friday morning in wake of the
front.

Bro watches warnings advisories
Tx... Coastal flood advisory until 7 am cdt this morning for txz256-
257-351.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov rgv
63


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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.