Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Point, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 5:39PM Sunday January 19, 2020 7:35 PM CST (01:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:11AMMoonset 2:07PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Point , TX
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location: 12.21, -97.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 200057 AAA AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 657 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

DISCUSSION. Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION. Some lower clouds linger just over KBRO producing MVFR cigs. This lower deck may move off to the south around midnight but may linger longer. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected elsewhere with drier conditions overspreading the region as high pressure builds from the north. Winds continue to diminishing with strongest winds along and just east of the coast line where wind gusts of 20-25 knots are expected this evening.

DISCUSSION. Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE. Winds continue to diminish but seas remain elevated with higher winds east of the coastal waters. Laguna Madre to drop below exercise caution levels by 10 pm with SCA on the Gulf persisting mainly for higher seas/swells.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 241 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): 500 mb ridging will build steadily eastward throughout the short term period while the surface ridging also shifts eastwards. This will allow for temps to moderate steadily as the low level wind flow becomes more E-NE throughout tomorrow night. Some glimpses of clear skies may occur briefly throughout the short term period as some drier air filters into the region. However, believe that generally partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail generally as the low level flow maintains some moisture flow in off of the Gulf of Mex.

Pop and temp guidance in the short term from the latest NAM/GFS and ECMWF is in pretty close agreement. So will go close to a model blend for max and min temps through Mon Night. Moisture levels will remain very shallow through Mon Night. Will go with near zero pops as significant sources of lift over the region will remain absent through Mon Night.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): On Tuesday a gradual warming trend is expected to begin as heights/thicknesses begin to increase and southerly return flow takes shape across the region. At that time an H5 shortwave trough will be moving over the Four Corners region. This trough will help push a surface cold front southward toward the area. Unfortunately, globals are still not in agreement with the final outcome.

Both GFS and ECM have a QPF signal across the area midweek ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary. However, beyond late Wednesday and Thursday things diverge. The ECM is more progressive and brings the surface front through the region quicker than the GFS. ECM pushes the surface front southward and cuts off rainfall potential late Thursday and early Friday. The GFS is no where near as quick. In fact, the front stalls just to our north and keeps a QPF signal over the region off and on until a 2nd impulse across the high plains of Kansas is able to slide southward, grab the surface front, and push it through the region nearly 24 hours after ECM's fropa. Timing and strength of the front late in the week are leading to lower confidence beyond Wednesday. Temperatures, rainfall, and even surface winds could be off by around 24 hours. Decided to not change much from prior package, only increase temperatures just a bit early on in the long term.

MARINE (Tonight through Monday Night): Buoy data and surface obs from along the lower TX coastline indicate that solid SCA conditions prevail across both the Bay and Gulf waters this afternoon. The PGF will weaken enough across the Bay waters to allow the winds/seas to improve there by early this evening. However, the strong PGF across the Gulf waters will be a bit more stubborn and will likely persist throughout the overnight into Monday. This will likely keep the winds and/or seas in SCA levels across the Gulf throughout the overnight possibly persisting into Mon.

(Tuesday through Sunday): Marine conditions will start off in the moderate category as high pressure at the surface will reside across the region. As this high pressure slides east, marine conditions will deteriorate again late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Winds and seas will likely exceed Small Craft thresholds as the low level flow increases ahead of the next cold frontal boundary by the weekend. SCAs may be needed pre/post front, which suggest much of the period will likely see adverse conditions. Improvement is expected gradually during the day Saturday.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Monday for GMZ150-155-170- 175.



This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Brownsville, TX (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Brownsville, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.