South Point, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Point, TX

June 16, 2024 4:13 AM CST (10:13 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:17 AM   Sunset 6:05 PM
Moonrise 2:27 PM   Moonset 1:49 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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PMZ028 Oaxaca E Of Puerto Angel Within 300 Nm Offshore Including The Gulf Of Tehuantepec- 230 Am Pdt Sun Jun 16 2024

Today - W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in S to sw swell. Period 16 seconds. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.

Tonight - SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in S to sw swell. Period 15 seconds. Scattered showers and isolated tstms.

Mon - SW to W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in sw swell. Period 15 seconds. Scattered tstms.

Mon night - SW to W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in sw swell. Period 14 seconds. Scattered tstms.

Tue - SW to W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in sw swell. Period 12 seconds.

Tue night - SW to W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in sw swell. Period 8 seconds.

Wed - W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in sw swell. Period 8 seconds.

Wed night - W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in sw swell. Period 8 seconds.

Thu - W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in sw swell. Period 8 seconds.

Thu night - SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in S to sw swell. Period 8 seconds.

PMZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Point, TX
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Area Discussion for - Brownsville, TX
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FXUS64 KBRO 160753 AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 253 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The end of the weekend and the beginning of the new work week will (hopefully) be the start of the much-discussed and anticipated significant precipitation for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center lists a 60% chance of tropical formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the next seven days.
In the meantime, lower pressure both at the surface and in the middle layers of the atmosphere, combined with an influx of deeper tropical moisture (precipitable water values nearing two inches along the immediate coast), will lead to an increase in showers and thunderstorms during the period from east to west, a trend depicted in the Day 1 and Day 2 Convective Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center. It is possible that precipitation chances progged for Monday in the forthcoming official forecast may be a bit too high, but will leave this in place for the successive shift to determine, especially given the uncertain nature of the previously- mentioned potential tropical blob south of the BRO CWFA.

Temperature-wise, above normal values are forecast. Heat indices do not suggest a HEAT ADVISORY during the short term forecast period, so will cover the indices with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT today and tomorrow.

Finally, slightly more adverse marine conditions, courtesy of a slight increase in seas, will lead to a MODERATE RISK of rip currents at the local beaches on Monday.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The biggest story of the long term forecast period remains the potential development of a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche.
However there are still some uncertainties in regards to the development of this tropical cyclone. One is that the models have continued to further push the development of this system into a tropical depression further and further back in time. While NHC has also continued to keep the chance of development around 60 percent, there discussions have also hinted a few uncertainties due to the models also delaying the development of this system. Expecting development around the middle of the week. The environmental conditions are still favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone, but it just appears to be slow development at this time.

The synoptic pattern for the long term features a mid-level ridge over the Western Gulf of Mexico and the parts of Texas. However there is a weakness that is expected to open up to allow for the transport of moisture northward, which will lead to an increase of rain chances for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley despite the development of a tropical system. Based on the latest model guidance the greatest chances of rainfall are expected to occur between Wednesday to late Thursday with PoPs currently around 70 percent. WPC has all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley in a slight risk (Level 2 of 4) for Wednesday. However, the rainfall could start much sooner, with some models brining the rain around late Monday along the coastal regions, then spreading to inland areas during the day on Tuesday. While the bulk of the much needed rainfall is currently expected to occur on Wednesday and Thursday, there is the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring on Friday and Saturday, though the rain chances do start to diminish further into the weekend.

As for the temperatures, there is a high degree in uncertainty due to the interactions with the cloud coverage. However given that the current expectations are for plenty of cloud coverage associated with the rain should keep the highs down a bit. As such, high temperatures are expected to be in the range of upper 80s and low 90s for most of the long term forecast period. The exception to this being Monday as high temperatures are in the range of mid 90s for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the 70s, though a few places could get into the low 80s.

For those looking to go to the beach during the week, need to pay attention each day due to the unsettled weather during the mid to late week. Beach hazards are expected to be present including an increase rip current threat, high surf, and coastal flooding.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours.

MARINE
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Today through Monday...Generally light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas will occur along the Lower Texas Coast during the period, with high pressure the dominant feature over the western Gulf of Mexico. Although Small Craft Advisory is not likely, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution may be needed for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore on Monday as the pressure gradient begins to intensify just slightly.

Monday night through Saturday...While the initial conditions will be favorable, marine conditions are expected to become adverse and then hazardous for the majority of the period through Saturday. While the extent of the hazardous conditions will be dependent upon the development of the tropical cyclone in the Bay of Campeche. An enhanced pressure gradient will also be a driving force for the marine hazards through Saturday as well. Winds and seas are expected to reach Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions on Tuesday and then move into Small Craft Advisory on Wednesday or Thursday for the Laguna Madre. However, the onset of Small Craft Advisory for the Gulf waters will be sooner as the seas are expected to build much sooner and could get up to around 9 to 11 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be present starting Monday and last through much of Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 80 95 80 / 10 40 70 50 HARLINGEN 98 76 95 77 / 10 30 60 40 MCALLEN 99 79 98 79 / 10 10 40 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 78 99 78 / 0 0 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 88 82 / 20 50 70 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 79 92 79 / 10 40 70 50

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.




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