Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Potala Pastillo, PR

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Monday...

The day began with isolated showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and portions of northeastern and eastern Puerto Rico. As the day progressed, shower activity and thunderstorms intensified, leading to some Special Weather Statements due to strong thunderstorms generating torrential rain and frequent lightning. Based on radar estimates, up to 2 inches of rain have fallen, particularly across the Cordillera Central, with up to 3 inches reported in southwestern municipalities. Maximum temperatures were recorded in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the coastal and urban areas of the islands, while temperatures in the mountains ranged from the low to mid-80s. Rainfall activity should dissipate around sunset, allowing for mainly calm conditions tonight.

The short-term forecast remains on track. A passing mid-to-upper- level trough will enhance instability throughout the weekend as the ridges continue moving westward away from the islands. The distant Kirk will continue to influence local weather by advecting and maintaining moisture over us and indirectly affecting the local winds. The general wind flow over the next few days will be mainly light, from the northeast to north, as a col area positions itself near the Northeast Caribbean. Winds will shift from the east-southeast tomorrow and become southerly early next week.
Under this weather pattern, we can expect slow-moving showers and potentially more severe afternoon thunderstorms, which may increase the threat of flooding each day. Flood risk will remain from limited to elevated each day across the interior PR. Also, abundant moisture combined with the afternoon maximum temperatures will continue to promote the unpleasant hot heat indices in areas with no rain activity, especially across the urban and low- elevation areas of the forecast area.

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday...

An interesting surface pattern will dominate the first part of the long-term period, with a weak surface low-pressure system well to the south in the Caribbean waters and a weak surface ridge over the Central Atlantic. The interaction between these two features will produce a variable and light east-to-southeast wind flow across the region through at least Friday. Under this influence, abundant tropical moisture with PWAT near 2.0 inches is expected from Tuesday through Wednesday. Sufficient moisture will be present from Thursday into Sunday, though it will gradually decrease as the week progresses. Despite tropical moisture being trapped at the surface up to 700 mb on Tuesday and Wednesday, widespread shower activity is not anticipated due to the lack of instability at 250 mb and warmer temperatures at 500 mb of -4°C.
As a result, residents can expect a typical pattern of warm morning temperatures followed by afternoon showers, especially across the mountains. The combination of light and variable winds with surface conditions may lead to longer periods of showers and significant rainfall accumulations, potentially causing urban and small stream flooding. Similar conditions will continue through Friday, although shower activity should be less widespread.

Global model guidance for 925 mb temperatures suggests a warm period for much of the region due to the southeasterly wind component and the presence of tropical moisture, which will increase relative humidity at 850-700 mb. Consequently, periods of warm temperatures and high moisture levels could result in heat indices near the threshold for heat advisories, increasing health risks for vulnerable communities, particularly in coastal and urban areas. Please follow health department recommendations to avoid heat- related illnesses.



AVIATION

(18Z TAFS)

Prevailing VFR except for aftn convection over portions of the islands with VCSH at TIST/TISX and VCSH/VCTS at all PR terminals til 05/23Z. Light ENE SFC wnds less than 10 kts will persist but with sea breeze variations and brief wnd gust accompanying aftn showers and tstms. SHRA/Isold TSRA expected along ctrl interior and SRN PR with brief Mtn top obscr. Fm 06/04Z-06/14Z additional SHRA/isold TSRA psbl ovr Atlantic regional waters en route btw islands with some reaching the north and east coastal areas of the islands and the USVI terminals and TJSJ. SFC wnds will incr to btw 10-12kts aft 06/14Z with enhanced sea breeze variations.



MARINE

The interaction between the weak high-pressure system over the western Atlantic and Hurricane Kirk in the Central Atlantic will promote light to gentle north to northeast winds. A combination of north-northeast to northeast long-period swells will reach the regional waters throughout the weekend, generating hazardous sea conditions. Seas are expected to fluctuate between 5 to 8 feet, with occasional heights reaching up to 9 feet.



BEACH FORECAST

A High Risk of Rip Currents will be in effect this weekend across the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St.
Croix. Long-period swells from Hurricane Kirk will sustain dangerous coastal conditions through at least early next week.
Beachgoers and water sports enthusiasts are urged to exercise extreme caution, as rip currents pose a significant danger along the northern and eastern coasts of Puerto Rico and nearby islands.
For a more detailed forecast, please consult the Surf Zone Forecast for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (SRFSJU).



SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for PRZ001-002- 005-008.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Monday for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM AST Monday for AMZ712.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AST Sunday for AMZ723.