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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 508 Pm Ast Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Sunday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.

AMZ700 508 Pm Ast Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... The combination of a long-dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east-northeast winds, generated by a strong surface high pressure over the western atlantic, will promote deteriorated and hazardous marine conditions through the weekend into next week. Seas are anticipated to reach up to 10-12 feet, while winds increase up to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Small craft advisories are in effect for most local waters, except for protected coastal waters of southwestern puerto rico, where small craft should exercise caution.

FXCA62 TJSJ 092142 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 542 PM AST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
The combination of a long-dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east- northeast winds will promote deteriorated and hazardous marine and coastal conditions through the weekend and into next week. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most coastal waters, High Surf Advisories are in effect for the northern coastline of Puerto Rico and Culebra through tomorrow evening, and a High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for the aforementioned beaches as well as Vieques, southeastern Puerto Rico and the USVI. By tonight, the moisture content is forecast to increase due to remnants of a frontal boundary now north of the region. More stable conditions, with lower available moisture levels, are expected by the latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Monday...

Variable weather conditions prevailed in the morning and early afternoon hours. Doppler Radar detected shower activity over the offshore Caribbean waters, and some stream showers developing over eastern and southeastern Puerto Rico. Although rainfall was moderate at some point, not significant rainfall accumulations were reported.
Daytime temperatures were in the low to mids 80 across the coastal areas, and in the mid 70s across the mountains.

A moist air mass crossing the eastern Caribbean Basin is promoting scattered showers across the local region's outer Caribbean waters, with fair weather prevailing overland. This morning's sounding revealed average precipitable water values and stable conditions which the later reflects the influence of the mid-level ridging that continues to exist across the Caribbean.
Breezy conditions from the east continue as an area of high pressure at the surface moves across the western Atlantic.

By tonight, the moisture content is forecast to increase due to remnants of a frontal boundary now north of the region. This air mass will arrive from the northeast, pushing PWAT values to normal and above normal values tomorrow which brings tomorrow to have the greatest potential for rainfall during this time. With shallow convective instability and breezy winds, passing showers are forecast mainly across northern and eastern sections of the islands, particularly mainland Puerto Rico. Current model guidance suggests that moisture should linger but gradually decrease on Monday, promoting more seasonal weather of mainly quick passing showers.

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Saturday...
./FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION Issued at 506 AM AST Sat Dec 9 2023/

The latest model guidance has not introduced significant changes, except for variations in the timing of relatively dry and moist patches streaming across the region. Although there is a chance of limited afternoon convective development, the primary rain contributor will result from showers developing due to a cool advective pattern during the forecast period. A dominant mid-level ridge will persist over the northern Caribbean throughout the workweek into the upcoming weekend, sustaining a trade wind cap inversion at around the 800-850 mph level and drier air aloft, confining moisture to the lower levels and, thus, suppressing the likelihood for deep convective or thunderstorm development.
Meanwhile, at the surface, a strong surface high pressure system over the western-central Atlantic will maintain a tightened local pressure across the Northeastern Caribbean and, thus, generating breezy to locally windy conditions with winds up to 25 mph and gusts up to 30-40 mph, mainly across coastal areas and lower elevations.

In the expected weather scenario, with intermittent patches of drier air and shallow moisture streaming across the region, expect variations in moisture levels every 12 hours or so, but less significant than previously suggested. According to model guidance, precipitable water should generally remain within typical seasonal moisture levels around 1.2-1.6 inches, except for above-normal precipitable water values around 1.7 by late Tuesday night and below-normal precipitable water values by Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and Friday. During the highest moisture periods, expect an increased frequency of showers moving inland from the waters, especially during nighttime over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with limited afternoon convective development, if any. Despite periods of increased shower activity, hazard risks through the long-term forecast period should center on winds-related threats.

AVIATION
VFR conditions are forecast for all the TAF sites for all the period.
Breezy Conditions with winds from the E-NE at 15 to 18 knots and gusty winds will persist until 09/22Z, diminish at night. VCSH are possible over TJPS, if shower development occur at the afternoon in the interior. Lower ceiling and SHRA are forecast for 10/09Z across northeastern TAF sites, due to the arrival of moisture from a frontal boundary.

MARINE
Current CARICOOS buoy observations near San Juan, Arecibo and Rincon show seas of 7.3 ft, 7.2 ft, and 7.0 ft, respectively, with a period of 12-13s. The combination of a long-dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east-northeast winds, generated by a strong surface high pressure over the western Atlantic, will promote deteriorated and hazardous marine conditions through the weekend and into next week. Seas are anticipated to reach up to 10-12 feet, while winds increase up to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most local waters, except for protected coastal waters of southwestern Puerto Rico, where small craft should exercise caution. For more information and details on current marine risks, refer to the SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below, the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU & CWFSPN) and the Marine Weather Message product (MWWSJU). Stay tuned to future updates and products issued by the National Weather Service.

SURF ZONE
Deteriorated marine conditions will also impact surf zone and beach conditions, producing large breaking waves reaching up to 10-13 feet. These conditions will likely result in high surf and life-threatening swimming and rip current conditions through tomorrow evening. So far, a Rip Current Statement and a High Surf Advisory are currently in effect for beaches extending from Rincon and Aguada in the west to Fajardo in the northeast, covering the northern coastline of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra.

Also, a High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for beaches in southeastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For more information and details on current surf zone risks, refer to the SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below, the Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU), and the Coastal Hazard Message product (CFWSJU). Stay tuned to future updates and products issued by the National Weather Service.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for PRZ001-002-005-008- 010-012.

High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for PRZ003-010- 013.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001-002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST Monday for AMZ735-742.

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Playa Cortada
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Sat -- 03:30 AM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:45 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:19 AM AST     0.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:38 AM AST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:13 PM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:47 PM AST     0.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:50 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:40 PM AST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Playa Cortada, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Playa de Ponce
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Sat -- 03:31 AM AST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:46 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM AST     0.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:02 AM AST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:14 PM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:30 PM AST     0.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:51 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:04 PM AST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Playa de Ponce, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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