Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Salinas, PR

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Thursday...

Sunny skies prevailed across the islands during most of the day. Few showers were observed today, but the activity remained mainly over the Mona Passage towards the Hispaniola. It was very hot too across the region. Highs were seen in the low to mid 90s along the coastal and urban areas, and from the mid to upper 80s across the mountains.
The Luis Munoz Marin International Airport in San Juan reported a high of 93 degrees Fahrenheit, breaking a new record of 37 consecutive days with temperatures over 90 degrees.

A drying trend will continue for the next few days as the dry airmass continues to move into the area. The latest precipitable water guidance suggest values of 1.0 to 1.4 inches through at least Wednesday. Therefore, expect limited shower activity until the latter part of the week. A gradual increase in moisture is anticipated by Thursday as a surge of moisture move into the region ahead of a low pressure and tropical wave (Invest 94L) that is currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. On Thursday, afternoon convective activity is likely across the interior and northwestern Puerto Rico due to the combination of daytime heating, local effects and southeasterly winds. Ponding of water in roads and poorly drainage areas areas is possible with the heaviest rains.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the aforementioned area of low pressure , Invest 94L, located over the Central Tropical Atlantic. There is a very high uncertainty on the future of this system as it approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week. Residents and visitors should stay tuned for further updates.

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 458 AM AST Tue Oct 15 2024/

Model guidance indicates gradually increasing moisture on Friday to start the long term period. The National Hurricane Center (NHC)
continues to monitors a well defined area of low pressure (Invest 94L) over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. This system currently has a 60 percent formation chance through 7 days. Model guidance has the system nearing the local islands Friday into Saturday. It is still to early to know any direct impacts, that this system could bring.
An increase in overall moisture is still forecast even if the system doesn't form, as the system would still pass as a tropical wave and a broad moisture field would engulf the region, with PWAT values increasing to above 2 inches possibly through the end of the forecast period. With the forecast to start the period closely linked to the future of Invest 94L, uncertainty remains. However, with increased moisture and overall more unstable conditions, the chance for overnight and afternoon convection Friday through Saturday will increase along with the potential for localized flooding impacts in urban areas, on roads, and along some rivers and small streams across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. More typical weather conditions, albeit with more moisture are forecast by next week under light to moderate east to southeast winds, including passing overnight and early morning showers steered by easterly winds along parts of the east coastal sections of the islands with afternoon convection expected but mainly focused across the central interior and northern sections of Puerto Rico. High heat indices will continue. For more information regarding Invest 94L, please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook (TWOAT & TWOSAT)
issued by the NHC.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS)

VFR conds to prevail except in isold SHRA in wrn PR with brief MVFR conds til 15/22Z. LLVL winds 10-15 kt from the ESE with seabreeze influences. Max winds SE 21-26 kts btwn FL435-475. Winds ovr land to diminish to less than 10 kts with land breeze influences btwn 15/22Z- 16/12Z then winds will bcm E 10-15kt with hir gusts. Minor SHRA ern PR aft 16/10Z.

MARINE

Gentle to moderate east southeast winds will prevail into mid-week as a weak surface high pressure pattern continues northeast of the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the waters with this windflow. Seas up to 4 to 5 feet are forecast for tonight. The NHC is monitoring Invest 94L over the central tropical Atlantic, which could increase winds and seas by the end of the workweek.

BEACH FORECAST

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for northwestern to northeastern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as for Culebra, northwestern St. Thomas, easternmost Vieques and easternmost St.
Croix. Low risk elsewhere. Low risk spreading tonight to beaches western Puerto Rico, St. Thomas and St. John.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.