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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 819 Pm Ast Fri Dec 8 2023
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Sunday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers.

AMZ700 819 Pm Ast Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... The combination of a long-dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east-northeast winds, due to a strong high pressure over the western atlantic, will promote deteriorated and hazardous marine conditions through the weekend and into next week. Seas are anticipated to reach up to 10 feet, with occasional seas up to 11 feet, while winds increase to 20 and 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots over the weekend. Small craft advisories are in effect for most local waters, except for protected coastal waters of south and southwestern puerto rico, where small craft should exercise caution.

FXCA62 TJSJ 082101 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 501 PM AST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
A building surface high over the western Atlantic will promote a gradual increase in wind speeds through the weekend. The combination of a long-dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and these fresh to strong east to east- northeast winds will promote deteriorated and hazardous marine and coastal conditions through the weekend and into next week. Cold front remnants and an induced low-level trough will also likely contribute to an increased frequency of showers moving into windward areas. More stable conditions, with lower available moisture levels, are forecast by the latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Sunday...

Overall dry and stable conditions prevailed today. Recent soundings from TJSJ (San Juan) and TNCM (St Maarten) suggests precipitable water values of 1.28 and 1.29 inches respectively, as well as a strong 2-3 degree cap inversion. Satellite imagery and the doppler weather radar showed shallow clouds and passing showers over the local waters between eastern PR and adjacent islands and over the offshore Atlantic waters. Some showers of short duration were noted reaching the southeast coast of Puerto Rico but no significant accumulations were noted. Daytime high temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s across coastal areas, and upper 70s to low 80s in higher elevations and valleys. Increasing east northeast winds and breezy conditions are expected for the rest of the day and through the weekend.

Due to the combination of shallow trade wind moisture and that associated with an induced low-level trough slowly moving westward over the southeastern Caribbean; there is increased chance for occasional shower development beginning late tonight and into Saturday morning. This will be mainly focused over the local waters between PR and the USVI and along the north and east coastal areas of the islands. Diurnally induced afternoon shower development is forecast for Saturday and this should be focused mainly over the central interior and west-southwest PR. Periods of late morning and afternoon showers will also be possible in and around the USVI.
Rainfall accumulations should however be less than half an inch with the heaviest rains.

By Sunday the moisture remnants of the sagging frontal boundary north of the region is expected to sink farther south and converge across the Puerto Rico. This along with the tightening of the local pressure gradient and increasing trade winds, will favor a showery wetter pattern due to the low level convective instability. As a result, there is good potential for occasionally enhanced quick passing showers especially during the overnight and early morning hours along the north and east sections of the islands. Periods of passing showers may spread further westward over the central interior and west sections of Puerto Rico as well as over the U.S.
Virgin Islands from time to time during the afternoon and evening hours. The highest rainfall accumulations are so far expected to be one inch or less, but slightly higher amounts cannot be ruled out across portions of east and northeast PR.

So far, model guidance and recent data from the surrounding Atlantic buoys continued to suggest deteriorating marine and coastal conditions today and for the rest of the period. Please refer to the latest Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU & CFWSJU), Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU), Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU)
and the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOSJU) issued by WFO San Juan PR for updated information.

LONG TERM
Monday through Friday...

/FROM PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 434 AM AST Fri Dec 8 2023/

While there is a possibility of limited afternoon convective development, a cool advective pattern will be the primary source of shower development during the forecast period, typical for this season. A dominant mid-level ridge will persist over the northern Caribbean, sustaining a trade wind cap inversion at around the 800-850 mph level and drier air aloft, confining moisture to the lower levels and, thus, suppressing the likelihood for deep convective or thunderstorm development. However, weak upper-level troughs will briefly weaken the trade wind cap and facilitate the influx of deep moisture into the region. Meanwhile, at the surface, a subtropical surface high pressure system building over the western-central Atlantic will maintain a tightened local pressure across the Northeastern Caribbean and, thus, breezy to locally windy conditions are likely with winds and gusts up to 20-30 mph and 30-40 mph, respectively.

Under these conditions, expect intermittent patches of drier air and shallow moisture to reach the region, causing significant variations in moisture levels every 12 hours or so. According to model guidance, precipitable water will reach the highest and lowest values during the first half of the workweek, ranging from typical seasonal levels of around 1.6 inches by Tuesday afternoon to nearly well below seasonal levels of around an inch by Wednesday morning. During the highest moisture periods, expect an increased frequency of showers moving inland from the waters, especially during nighttime over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, with limited afternoon convective development, if any. Although some patches of moisture will likely reach the local islands, the second half of the workweek is suggested to be more stable with generally below-normal precipitable water values. So far, hazard risks through the long-term forecast period should center on winds-related threats, mainly across coastal areas and lower elevations.

AVIATION
VFR conds durg prd
FEW clds nr FL030
FL050 ovr the regional waters and en route btw islands. Isold SHRA. SHRA/-SHRA psbl mainly ovr east,central interior and SW PR with VCSH psbl mainly at TJMZ/TJPS til 23z. Isold passing SHRA psbl at TJSJ aft 21Z. SFC wnds fm NE 12-15 kts with ocnl hir gusts and sea breeze variations...bcmg calm to LGT/VRB aft 08/22z.

MARINE
Current CARICOOS buoy observations near San Juan, Arecibo and Rincon show seas of 7.2 ft, 6.6 ft, and 6.5 ft, respectively, with a period of 11-12s. The combination of a long-dominant period northwesterly to northerly swell and fresh to strong east to east- northeast winds will promote deteriorated and hazardous marine conditions through the weekend and into next week. Seas are anticipated to reach up to 10 feet, with occasional seas up to 11 feet, while winds increase to 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots over the weekend. Small Craft Advisories are or will soon be in place for most local waters, except for protected coastal waters of south and southwestern Puerto Rico, where Small Craft Should Exercise Caution. For more information and details on current marine risks, refer to the SJU- WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below, the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU & CWFSPN) and the Marine Weather Message product (MWWSJU). Stay tuned to future updates and products issued by the National Weather Service.

SURF ZONE
Into at least early next week, a High Risk of Rip Currents will be in effect for the northern coastline of Puerto Rico, from Rincon to Fajardo, as well as for Culebra and the northern USVI, due to breaking waves increasing to around 8 feet. Tomorrow morning, a High Risk of Rip Currents will be in effect for the easternmost beaches of St. Croix, lasting through at least early next week.
For more information and details on current surf zone risks, refer to the SJU- WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below, the Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU), and the Coastal Hazard Message product (CFWSJU). Stay tuned to future updates and products issued by the National Weather Service.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Tuesday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ711-712.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM AST Wednesday for AMZ716-723-733-741.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM AST Monday for AMZ726.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM AST Monday for AMZ742.

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Playa Cortada
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Fri -- 02:39 AM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:44 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:19 AM AST     0.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:33 AM AST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:37 PM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:51 PM AST     0.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:50 PM AST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:11 PM AST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Playa Cortada, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Arroyo
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Fri -- 02:38 AM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:43 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:23 AM AST     0.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:33 AM AST     0.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:35 PM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:48 PM AST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:05 PM AST     0.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:01 PM AST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Arroyo, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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