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AMZ745 Coastal Waters Of Southwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1006 Pm Ast Thu Dec 7 2023
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet or less. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to east 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to east 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 12 seconds. Scattered showers.

AMZ700 1006 Pm Ast Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Light to moderate trade winds will continue to increase, generated by a surface high-pressure ridge across the central and eastern atlantic. By tomorrow, a stronger high-pressure ridge will build and spread over the western atlantic. Consequently winds will increase, becoming fresh to locally strong. Hazardous seas for small craft are likely due to a long period northwest to north swell and increasing wind speeds from tomorrow into early next week. Additionally, increased shower activity is possible as remnants of a cold front approach the regional waters.

FXCA62 TJSJ 072255 RRB AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED National Weather Service San Juan PR 655 PM AST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT)
values show more humid air over northern and western Puerto Rico with values up to 1.4 inches over land. Afternoon activity over south- central to southwest PR should gradually dissipate and/or move offshore. Passing showers may reach the northern coastal areas by late evening as wind become more east northeast through the night. Hazardous seas for small craft and high risk of rip currents are expected due to a long-dominant period northwest to north swell and increasing wind speeds from tomorrow into early next week.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday...

Current satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values show more humid air over northern and western Puerto Rico with values up to 1.4 inches over land. Afternoon activity over south- central to southwest PR should gradually dissipate and/or move offshore. Passing showers may reach the northern coastal areas by late evening as wind become more east northeast through the night.
Daytime high temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s across coastal areas, and upper 70s to low 80s in higher elevations and valleys. Maximum heat indices we again in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees mainly along coastal and urban areas.

Recent model guidance and the global satellite imagery suggests the frontal boundary to sag just northwest and north of the region while a weak induced trough lingers across the areas. The broad mid-upper level ridge extending across the area will remain in place today into Friday but will gradually erode late friday into the weekend as a polar trough will cross the west Atlantic and move just north of the region. This will aid in maintaining overall stable conditions aloft, while suppressing convective development. Only shallow low level moisture steered by the light to moderate east to northeasterly winds are so far forecast to affect the coastal waters and windward sections of the islands from time to time but mainly during the evening and early morning hours.

By late Friday and Saturday the aforementioned a polar trough will move eastward across the west Atlantic, while an associated frontal boundary and associated moisture field is forecast to sink move southeastward and settle just north of the region. By then an induced pre-frontal trough will cross the region and merge with the boundary , thus increasing low level moisture convergence with the increasing trade winds which will become more northeasterly. This expected pattern will therefore increase the potential for shower development mainly over the interior and west-southwest sections of Puerto Rico, and mainly downwind of the U.S. Virgin Islands. All in all, the expected scenario for the next few days calls for an even cooler advective pattern with better chance for quick passing overnight and early morning showers.

So far, model guidance continued to suggest no significant weather impacts for the period except for the deteriorating marine and coastal conditions. Please refer to the latest Coastal Waters Forecast(CWFSJU), Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU) and the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOSJU) issued by WFO San Juan PR for updated information.

LONG TERM
Sunday through Thursday...

/FROM PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 526 AM AST Thu Dec 7 2023/.

While there is a possibility of limited afternoon convective development, a cool advective pattern, typically the primary source of shower development during the local fall season, will prevail. A dominant mid-level ridge will persist over the northern Caribbean, sustaining a trade wind cap inversion and dry air aloft, suppressing shower development. However, weak upper-level troughs will briefly weaken the trade wind cap and facilitate the influx of deep moisture into the region. Meanwhile, at the surface, a subtropical surface high pressure system building over the western-central Atlantic will maintain a tightened local pressure across the Northeastern Caribbean and, thus, breezy to locally windy conditions are likely across the forecast area.
These increased winds will frequently steer patches of shallow moisture, including moisture related to the remnants of a cold front and an easterly disturbance early in the forecast period.

According to model guidance, precipitable water values are anticipated to remain within typical seasonal levels (between 1.2 and 1.6 inches). However, above-normal moisture levels (1.6 inches or higher) are likely on Sunday into Monday and later in the workweek, aligning with the timing of the remnants and easterly disturbances and a weakened trade wind cap. These brief transitions will be evident in the increased frequency of showers moving inland from the waters, especially during nighttime over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite this, hazard risks through the long-term forecast period should center on winds-related threats, mainly across coastal areas and lower elevations.

AVIATION
VFR conds durg prd. FEW-SCT cld lyrs nr FL028...FL050 mstly fair wx clouds over the regional waters and enroute btw islands. Isold SHRA. SHRA/-SHRA psbl ovr interior and W-SW PR with VCSH psbl mainly at TJMZ/TJPS 06/19-23z...and TJSJ aft 21Z. SFC wnds fm E-NE 10-15 kts with ocnl hir gusts and sea breeze variations...bcmg calm to LGT/VRB aft 07/22z.

MARINE
Light to moderate trade winds will continue to increase, generated by a surface high-pressure ridge across the central and eastern Atlantic. By tomorrow, a stronger high-pressure ridge will build and spread over the western Atlantic. Consequently winds will increase, becoming fresh to locally strong. Hazardous seas for small craft are likely due to a long-dominant period northwest to north swell and increasing wind speeds from tomorrow into early next week. Additionally, increased shower activity is possible as remnants of a cold front approach the regional waters. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for most coastal waters due to seas building up to 8 feet (and up to 10 feet over some Marine Zones) and winds increasing to 20-25 knots with gusts up to around 30 knots during the weekend. For more information and details on current marine risks, refer to the SJU- WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below and the Marine Weather Message product (MWWSJU). Stay tuned to future updates and products issued by the National Weather Service.

SURF ZONE
For tonight, up to moderate risk of rip currents for most north- oriented beaches of Puerto Rico and eastern St. Croix.

However, deteriorating marine and coastal conditions will increase the risk of rip currents. Breaking waves up to around 7 feet will promote a HIGH RISK of Rip Currents for the northern coastline of Puerto Rico from tomorrow morning to at least early next week.
Rip Current Statements due to high risk of rip currents will likely be issued for other coastal areas, including Culebra, Rincon, the USVI, and Vieques in the next update. Stay tuned to future updates and products (CFWSJU & SRFSJU) issued by the National Weather Service.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through late Sunday night for PRZ001-002-005-008.

VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 8 AM AST Tuesday for AMZ711.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 8 PM AST Monday for AMZ712.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM AST Monday for AMZ716.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM AST Tuesday for AMZ723.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM AST Monday for AMZ733.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 8 AM AST Tuesday for AMZ741.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 8 AM AST Monday for AMZ742.

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Magueyes Island
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Thu -- 01:53 AM AST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:46 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:31 AM AST     0.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:52 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:18 PM AST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Magueyes Island, Caribbean Sea, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Guánica
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Thu -- 01:53 AM AST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:06 AM AST     0.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM AST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM AST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:05 PM AST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:50 PM AST     0.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:51 PM AST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:44 PM AST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Guanica, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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