Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Santa Isabel, PR

.Short Term(This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 306 PM AST Tue Feb 10 2026

Cloudy skies with light showers steered by breezy NNE flow prevailed today. As of 2 PM, the TJUA radar detected no precipitation accumulations since 7:24 AM. Official and unofficial stations report temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s at lower elevations of the islands. Current Satellite derived precipitable water (PWAT) values indicate 1.30 to 1.50 inches, at normal to slightly above normal values for this time of the year. The 12Z sounding detected 1.52 inches of PWAT. A broad surface high over the southwestern Atlantic will continue to promote up to breezy north-northeasterly winds this evening. As a frontal low moves into the western Atlantic, the surface high will continue to move eastward toward the central Atlantic. Under this pattern, steering flow will continue to veer during the period and remaining breezy through Wednesday night. By Wednesday morning east-northeasterly steering flow will be present, eventually becoming southeasterly Wednesday night and Thursday.
Under the above mentioned steering flow, drier air will start to filter into the region tonight prompting normal to below normal PWAT on Wednesday. A weak mid-level ridge will also move over the region on Wednesday into early Thursday further limit shower development.
Patchy fog will also develop over sectors of the interior. The same moisture field that will be pushed out of the region by tomorrow will return by Thursday, pushed back into the region by the southeasterly steering flow, as a short wave troughs also approaches the region and promotes deeper moisture. Moisture and instability during the short term period will peak on Thursday under this pattern. This will support stronger showers and up to a limited flooding risk over some windward sectors and during the afternoon over interior to W-NW PR, and downwind of the local islands and El Yunque. Drier air will move in behind the moisture band late Thursday night into the long term period as the trough also moves away. 925 temperatures will remain below normal throughout early tomorrow, beginning a warming trend on Wednesday (reaching normal to above normal values) and on Thursday under the southeasterly flow (reaching above normal values to 2 standard deviations above normal).

.Long Term(Friday through next Monday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Tue Feb 10 2026

The long-term forecast remains on track as a weak upper-level trough approaches the local islands from the northwest. At the surface, a high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will continue to shift eastward, promoting light to moderate southeasterly winds through Sunday. Winds will then shift from the east as another surface high builds over the western Atlantic and migrates toward the central Atlantic through the end of the period.

By Monday and Tuesday, a mid-to-upper-level ridge will establish across the region, promoting stable conditions aloft. The latest precipitable water (PWAT) analysis reflects this stability, showing values within the seasonal climatological range of 1.20 to 1.50 inches. Under this pattern, trade-wind moisture will bring passing morning showers to portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convective activity over central and western Puerto Rico. Given the current outlook, the flooding threat remains limited, particularly through the first half of the period. Temperatures at the 925 mb level will gradually rise to above-normal levels starting Friday as southeasterly flow brings abundant moisture. Consequently, humid and warm conditions are expected to persist through the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 306 PM AST Tue Feb 10 2026

Mainly VFR conditions over the sites with persistent mid to upper level clouds. Winds will continue from the NNE (veering during the period) up to 15 knots with higher gusts through 10/23Z, increasing again at 12/13Z up to 15 knots from the ENE with higher gusts. VCSH possible at windward terminals; patchy fog over areas of interior PR.

MARINE
Issued at 306 PM AST Tue Feb 10 2026

A surface high pressure over the Western Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to fresh northerly winds through late tonight, gradually veering to the east and weakening through Thursday. A stationary frontal boundary is expected to move over the Central Atlantic in the next few days, though cloudiness and light to moderate showers will persist tonight and Wednesday. A large, long- period north-northwest swell will continue to bring hazardous seas across the Atlantic waters and passages through at least early Thursday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for most local waters exposed to the NNW swell.

BEACH FORECAST
Issued at 306 PM AST Tue Feb 10 2026

Some changes have been introduced to the beach forecast. The latest NDBC buoy 41043 observations show wave heights between 10 and 12 feet, with swell periods from the N-NNW between 12 and 14 seconds.
Based on swell decay and considering shoaling factors (steepness), breaking waves between 14 and 15 feet are expected to persist tonight along the northern, exposed beaches of the islands. Hence, the Coastal Flood Advisory was extended until 6 AM AST Wednesday, with the High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday, and the High Risk of Rip Currents through at least 6 PM AST Thursday. Areas under Coastal Flood Advisory and High Surf Advisory can expect flooding of vulnerable coastal areas and localized beach erosion, while life- threatening rip currents are still expected along beaches under Rip Current Statements. Residents and visitors are urged to follow flag warnings and stay tuned to the latest updates.

As the swell diminishes, beach conditions should improve by Friday, though they may deteriorate once again in the weekend as the latest model guidance suggests pulses of another long-period north- northwesterly swell arriving and spreading across the region.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-010-012.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for PRZ001-002-005- 008-010-012.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for PRZ011-013.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for PRZ013.

VI...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for VIZ001.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Wednesday for VIZ001.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Thursday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741-742-745.