Saturday, September21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Playita Cortada, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 6:25PM Saturday September 21, 2019 6:14 PM AST (22:14 UTC) Moonrise 11:51PMMoonset 12:24PM Illumination 47% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ735 Coastal Waters Of Southern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 417 Pm Ast Sat Sep 21 2019
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 11 seconds. Isolated showers.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Isolated showers.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas up to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers.
AMZ700 417 Pm Ast Sat Sep 21 2019
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Hazardous seas will continue through the rest of the weekend across the atlantic waters and local passages due to a diminishing long period northerly swell and a northeast swell from tropical storm jerry. As this system moves northwest, further to the north of the islands over the atlantic waters, showers and Thunderstorms associated with the moisture feed of the system from the southeast will move over the local waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Playita Cortada, PR
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location: 17.98, -66.45     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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Fxca62 tjsj 211534 aaa
afdsju
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service san juan pr
1134 am ast Sat sep 21 2019

Synopsis The risk of coastal flooding and high surf will
gradually diminish through the weekend. Jerry continues to move
northwest and drier air will move in behind it. A tropical wave is
showing signs of development, but considerable uncertainty remains
as to its final intensity once it moves into the local area.

Generally moist conditions persist through the rest of next week.

Short term The rest of today through Monday...

the outer rain bands of jerry are not showing in the local area
and tropical storm jerry continues to move northwest and away from
the area. Models are very aggressive with developing the moisture
in the feeder band that extends into the storm across the anegada
passage, but currently little has formed in the area and no rain
is present over land. The best showers in the area are south of
saint croix. Tops are just less than 30 kft. The current sounding
shows modest instability with a minus 4 lifted index and a
forecast surface based CAPE of 1800 j kg, but moisture in the
21 12z sounding is limited from 5-16 kft and a dry layer overlays
this for nearly 10 kft more. Models are widely divergent on
rainfall with some very aggressive in bringing numerous showers
over the area to the southeast, over the u.S. Virgin islands and
along the north coast of puerto rico this afternoon, while the
high resolution models seem to only favor convection over the
north coast and scattered across the waters to the east of puerto
rico. The WRF was the least aggressive and given the amount of
convection now visible have limited the shower activity to
scattered this afternoon. Upper levels have areas of weak
divergence aloft, so this will not be a major factor. Some heavy
showers will be possible across the north coast where winds should
turn northerly as sea breeze influences overcome the general
southerly flow. Also the southerly flow is bringing very warm
temperatures to much of the north coast of puerto rico. The record
for the date in san juan is 94 degrees and temperatures may indeed
approach that high value.

The models all continue to bring in considerable amount of
moisture across the eastern half of our forecast area tonight,
and some shower activity appears to be approaching the windward
islands. The showers that were approaching the leeward islands
have dissipated for the most part despite the precipitable water
values of two or more inches.

Therefore have toned down expectations for numerous showers or a
vigorous feeder band into jerry like dorian had from a similar
location. Rainfall that does occur in the u.S. Virgin islands and
eastern puerto rico should be manageable and even beneficial.

There is a dry area approaching behind the main moisture area
approaching tonight and Sunday from above 850 mb to above 600 mb
that should greatly limit convection over the area except in the
northwest portion of puerto rico.

Long term Monday night through Saturday...

the long-term period is unsettled as a result of a vigorous
tropical wave that is forecast to move into the southern caribbean
caribbean waters Sunday night. The tropical wave and its
associated moisture is expected to propagate to the northwest and
bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms to eastern puerto
rico and the u.S. Virgin islands late Monday into Tuesday. The
moisture will continue to spread across the interior and western
areas of puerto rico Tuesday afternoon. Guidance shows the bulk
of the moisture associated with the tropical wave arriving
Tuesday. Moisture trails through the area until Wednesday night.

Timing is quite uncertain and there is, according the the
national hurricane center a 50 percent chance of tropical cyclone
formation. Several inhibiting factors are currently working in our
favor that would limit development. First, the tropical wave will
be moving into a environment of higher shear (up to 40 knots
between 200-250 mb), and a drier air mass is currently ahead of
the tropical wave. The confidence in the long-term forecast and
the resulting precipitation is low for Tuesday and Wednesday due
to the uncertainty regarding the tropical wave. The end of the
workweek shows a northerly wind flow with tropical moisture that
was originally in the caribbean waters being pulled back across
the forecast area. This will result in an extended wetter than
usual period across the area in any case.

Aviation MainlyVFR conditions are expected across pr, the
usvi, and the leeward islands. Brief MVFR conds are possible
across the northwest portion of pr. Southerly flow at the surface
will be dominated by sea breeze influences and generally 6-12
knots until 21 21-22z. Maximum winds ne-e around 20 kt between
fl420-540.

Marine Swell off of tropical storm jerry will continue to
maintain hazardous seas through at least Sunday night, although
some improvement is expect tonight and Sunday. Seas from a system
approaching from the southeast may also bring 7 foot seas into
the caribbean waters and local passages Monday and Tuesday.

Mariners should monitor condition there for possible tropical
cyclone development.

Preliminary point temps pops
Sju 91 80 90 80 10 30 30 10
stt 89 81 89 82 30 50 30 10

Sju watches warnings advisories
Pr... High rip current risk through Sunday afternoon for culebra-
mayaguez and vicinity-north central-northeast-northwest-san
juan and vicinity-southeast.

High surf advisory until 6 am ast Sunday for culebra-mayaguez
and vicinity-north central-northeast-northwest-san juan and
vicinity-southeast.

Coastal flood advisory until 6 pm ast this evening for mayaguez
and vicinity-north central-northeast-northwest-san juan and
vicinity-southeast.

High rip current risk until 6 pm ast this evening for southwest-
vieques.

Vi... High rip current risk through Sunday afternoon for
st.Thomas... St. John... And adjacent islands.

High surf advisory until 6 am ast Sunday for st.Thomas... St.

John... And adjacent islands.

High rip current risk until 6 pm ast this evening for st croix.

Am... Small craft advisory until 2 am ast Sunday for coastal waters of
northern puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of northern
usvi and culebra out 10 nm-mona passage southward to 17n.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm ast Sunday for atlantic waters
of puerto rico and usvi from 10 nm to 19.5n.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm ast this evening for anegada
passage southward to 17n-coastal waters of northwestern
puerto rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of southwestern puerto
rico out 10 nm-coastal waters of southern usvi vieques and
eastern puerto rico out 10 nm.

Short term... Ws
long term... .Tw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42085 - Southeast of Ponce, PR 9 mi74 min E 5.8 G 7.8 87°F 86°F2 ft1011.5 hPa (-0.6)
JOXP4 - Jobos Bay Reserve, Puerto Rico 12 mi149 min SE 2.9 87°F 1014 hPa75°F
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 32 mi68 min SSE 7 G 8.9 87°F 86°F1012.9 hPa
YABP4 - 9754228 - Yabucoa Harbor, PR 33 mi62 min 90°F 77°F
AROP4 - 9757809 - Arecibo, PR 37 mi62 min NNE 6 G 7
SJNP4 - 9755371 - San Juan, PR 38 mi62 min WNW 8 G 9.9 86°F 86°F1011.9 hPa
41053 - San Juan, PR 39 mi74 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 87°F 86°F7 ft1011 hPa (-0.0)
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 41 mi68 min 88°F1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Penuelas (Punta Guayanilla), PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for TJPS

Wind History from JPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------------------E5NE5NE5--Calm
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Playa Cortada, Puerto Rico
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Playa Cortada
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Sat -- 03:41 AM AST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:14 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:24 PM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:48 PM AST     0.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:22 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:43 PM AST     Last Quarter
Sat -- 11:50 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.40.20.20.20.30.30.40.50.50.60.70.80.90.91111110.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Playa de Ponce, Puerto Rico
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Playa de Ponce
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:05 AM AST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:15 AM AST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:24 PM AST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:31 PM AST     0.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:23 PM AST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:43 PM AST     Last Quarter
Sat -- 11:51 PM AST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.40.30.20.20.20.30.40.40.50.60.70.80.90.91111110.90.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Puerto Rico    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Puerto Rico,Virgin Islands
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.