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AMZ745 Coastal Waters Of Southwestern Puerto Rico Out 10 Nm- 1024 Am Ast Mon Dec 4 2023
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to southeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots this afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, diminishing to east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas around 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to northeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas around 2 feet or less. Dominant period 6 seconds. Isolated showers.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds, increasing to 10 seconds. Isolated showers.

AMZ700 1024 Am Ast Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... A broad surface high pressure building over the western atlantic will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across the regional waters. A low pressure and its associated frontal boundary will move northeastward across the western atlantic. A northeasterly swell generated by surface pressure systems across the central atlantic will arrive from mid-week onward.

FXCA62 TJSJ 040835 AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 435 AM AST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 429 AM AST Mon Dec 4 2023

A surface high pressure inducing an easterly wind flow will drive the local weather conditions. Therefore, expect an advective pattern with the arrival of occasional fragments of moisture with clouds and showers. Regardless of it, expect periods of sunshine/clear skies under a stable weather pattern throughout the workweek. Moisture content may increase during the weekend. Life- threatening rip currents will be possible, especially along the north and east-facing beaches in Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the week; please exercise caution.

SHORT TERM
Today through Wednesday...

Stable weather conditions prevailed across the local region in the night hours. The Doppler Radar observed a few quick showers over the offshore Caribbean Waters and some coastal areas of St. Croix, with insignificant rainfall accumulations. Overnight temperatures were in the low to mid 70s across the coastal areas and into the low to mid 60s across the mountain areas.

For the rest of the period, stable conditions will persist as a mid to upper level ridge remains in place, resulting in drier air aloft.
The weather pattern will be more interesting at the surface with the influence of a broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic, extending to the western Atlantic, resulting in an easterly trade wind pattern for today into early Wednesday. Trapped moisture at 800 mb from a previous surface perturbation from an upper-level trough will move into the region, embedded in the wind flow, resulting in an advective pattern. According to the PWAT- derived Satellite Imagery, the best chance for rain activity will be today into Tomorrow with an area of shallow moisture with precipitable water values of 1.55 inches. By Wednesday, the latest model guidance suggests the arrival of an area of drier airmass with Precipitable Water remaining two standard deviations below the climatological normals. Therefore, residents and visitors can experiment with stable weather conditions with minimal rain activity for most of the day until another pulse of shallow moisture arrives at late night hours.

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...

A short wave trough moving to the north across the Atlantic Ocean will weaken somewhat the mid-level ridge over the Northeast Caribbean Thursday through Friday. While at the surface, a cold front could approach from the northwest, pooling moisture over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands late Thursday night into Friday. The Total Precipitable Water (TPW) may increase by 1.5 inches or more during the second part of the workweek. Under this weather pattern, the frequency of passing showers with periods of moderate to locally heavy rain could be possible, especially across the windward sections in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The surface winds will prevail mainly from the east- northeast to northeast through at least Saturday.

Model guidance suggests the mid-level ridge building, once again during the weekend into next week. However, the moisture associated with the frontal boundary, lingering north of the islands, may result in showery weather, especially along the windward sections and surrounding waters on Saturday. Moisture content may erode by Sunday without ruling out the arrival of some occasional quick passing showers.

Another cold front could be exiting the Eastern Seaboard around Sunday, moving eastward and approaching the region by late Monday night or Tuesday, which may increase rain activity early next week. However, high uncertainty is associated with this forecast, as this solution may change as we approach next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 429 AM AST Mon Dec 4 2023

VFR conditions will prevail for most of the period across all the TAF sites. Winds will persist VRB and light, increasing from 10- 14 knots by 04/15Z, with sea breeze variations in most terminals. Due to the afternoon convection, SHRA is possible over TJBQ near 04/18-04/22. Increasing in VCSH are expected TIST, TISX, and TJSJ, from 04/22Z.

MARINE
Issued at 429 AM AST Mon Dec 4 2023

A broad surface high pressure building over the western Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across the regional waters. A low pressure and its associated frontal boundary will move northeastward across the Western Atlantic. A northeasterly swell generated by surface pressure systems across the Central Atlantic will arrive from mid-week onward.

BEACH FORECAST

Life-threatening rip currents will develop across the beaches along the northeast coast of Puerto Rico and the eastern half of St Croix today. The rest of the Atlantic Coastline in Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands has a moderate risk of rip currents. This evening, the risk will also be high from Arecibo to Carolina and Culebra.

Please exercise caution across the north and east-facing beaches of the islands throughout the week as life-threatening rip currents may develop. A northeasterly swell will arrive from mid- week onward, affecting these beaches.

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late tonight for PRZ001-005-012.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ002.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ002.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST this evening for AMZ711-723.

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Puerto Real
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Mon -- 12:54 AM AST     0.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:50 AM AST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:30 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:52 PM AST     1.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 PM AST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:45 PM AST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Puerto Real, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

Magueyes Island
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Mon -- 02:43 AM AST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM AST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:29 PM AST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:13 PM AST     0.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 PM AST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Magueyes Island, Caribbean Sea, Puerto Rico, Tide feet

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