Friday, March5, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
El Combate, PR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:42PM Saturday March 6, 2021 12:30 AM AST (04:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:15AMMoonset 12:34PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ700 926 Pm Ast Fri Mar 5 2021
Synopsis for puerto rico and the uS. Virgin islands waters... Light to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail through the weekend with tranquil to slightly choppy seas. Isolated to scattered showers may affect portions of the local waters tonight through Saturday as low-level moisture persists over the area. A northerly swell will affect the atlantic waters early next week resulting once again in choppy to hazardous marine conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Combate, PR
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location: 18.09, -67.94     debug


Area Discussion for - San Juan, PR
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FXCA62 TJSJ 060127 AAA AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service San Juan PR 927 PM AST Fri Mar 5 2021

UPDATE. Moisture is moving in from the south and gradually increasing over the area. The MIMIC product over 1.8 inches of precipitable water well south of the area and spots of 1.6 inches just north of San Juan. The evening sounding from San Juan came in with 1.49 inches of precipitable water. Shower activity has been mostly missing in action, however. Radar showed a few moderate showers south of Guayanilla and west northwest of Aguadilla. The showers west northwest of Aguadilla are moving away from the island. The sounding also revealed a thin layer of dry air (26 percent relative humidity) at 4100 feet that will weaken all convection tonight. It is not clear that the showers moving toward Guanica can reach land as land breezes are beginning to develop. Therefore we continue with low POPs although stray showers near shore may arise. The GFS model continues to promise better moisture at 850 mb over central and western Puerto Rico after around 06/16Z, and popcorn showers should be generated over the area due to heating. Coverage may be a little better than today.

AVIATION. VFR conds will prevail. Aft 06/16Z, MVFR may be locally found in SHRA ovr the interior of PR. Land breezes of less than 6 kt expected til 06/13Z then southeast flow of 8 to 12 kt that may at times be over whelmed by sea breeze influences. Max winds W 50-60 kt btwn FL400-470.

MARINE. No change to the marine forecast and moderate rip currents will continue.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 453 PM AST Fri Mar 5 2021/

SYNOPSIS . A moister air mass moving northward through Saturday will result in an increase in shower activity. However, no significant rainfall accumulations can be expected as these showers will dissipate quickly. Fair weather conditions return on Sunday, before transitioning to a wetter pattern by much of next week as low-level moisture increases.

SHORT TERM . Tonight through Sunday .

The TJSJ 12Z upper air sounding already showed a slight erosion of the trade wind cap by the mid to upper level trough moving eastward from the western Atlantic. However, stable air aloft has persisted throughout the day maintaining mainly fair weather conditions with relatively clear skies over the local area. At lower levels, the tropical wave and induced trough over eastern and western Caribbean, respectively, continues promoting a south southeast wind flow over the forecast area. An air mass with precipitable water contents between 1.5 to 1.7 inches located over the southern Caribbean is currently being advected northward by the induced southerly wind flow. Satellite imagery showed some of that moisture filtering in during early afternoon causing increased cloudiness and shower development aided by local effects over interior and northern portions of Puerto Rico, including the metropolitan area in the past couple of hours. Still mid to upper levels were not conducive for further convective development leading to a shorter duration of these showers with light to moderate rainfall accumulations. As the plume of moisture continues moving northwestward, expect an uptick of shower activity this evening and tomorrow. Latest Hi-res models are less bullish with precipitation than earlier runs, though still show the possibility of a few showers over the local waters, USVI and eastern Puerto Rico late tonight and tomorrow morning.

Afterwards, model guidance suggests the entrance of drier air from the east tomorrow afternoon as the moister air mass leaves the forecast area. This will restore the trade wind cap, however, lingering moisture along with locally induced effects will promote isolated to scattered showers to develop over interior and northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. For the rest of the weekend, expect mainly fair weather conditions with isolated showers over USVI and eastern Puerto Rico Saturday night and Sunday morning with a few showers moving over western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon. This shower activity will be of short duration with minor rainfall accumulations.

LONG TERM . Monday through Friday .

FROM PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 419 AM AST Fri Mar 5 2021/

A frontal boundary will be located to our northwest on Monday. This feature will drag some low-level moisture into the area with an increase in showers expected. Isolated to scattered showers are possible across portions of eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI during the morning hours followed by afternoon activity across western Puerto Rico. Low-level winds will then increase on Tuesday into Wednesday as a surface high pressure moves across the western Atlantic. This will result in a cool advective pattern, with trade wind shower activity expected at times. Then, towards the latter half of the week, the weather pattern will undergo changes aloft. Global models continue to remain consistent in showing a mid and upper-level trough developing and amplifying west of the area, over near Hispanola. This would put the area on the favorable side for upward vertical motion. If the global models are correct in their current solution, then a more unstable weather pattern can be expected towards the latter half of the week with enhanced shower activity possible across portions of the area.

AVIATION .

VFR conds expected. VCSH possible late this afternoon and tonight at TJBQ and TJSJ. Winds will be light, around 10kt or so from the SE with variations at TJSJ and TJBQ for the rest of today. Winds will decrease and become light and variable after 05/22Z. VCSH possible at TISX overnight. Winds will increase after 06/13Z but will be mainly easterly with sea breeze variations mainly at TJPS and TJBQ.

MARINE . Fairly tranquil marine conditions are expected to continue through the upcoming weekend with east to southeast winds up to 15 knots. For beachgoers, a high risk is in effect until this evening for North Central, San Juan and vicinity. A low to moderate risk is expected for the rest of the local beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. SJU 74 87 72 87 / 10 10 30 30 STT 75 84 74 85 / 10 10 30 30

SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PR . None. VI . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . WS LONG TERM . CVB PUBLIC DESK . RVT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41115 - Rincon, Puerto Rico (181) 40 mi35 min 80°F2 ft
PTRP4 41 mi16 min SE 1 G 1.9 76°F
MGZP4 - 9759394 - Mayaguez, PR 42 mi43 min 75°F 80°F1015.7 hPa
MGIP4 - 9759110 - Magueyes Islands, PR 48 mi43 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 77°F 1015.3 hPa

Wind History for Mayaguez, PR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for TJMZ

Wind History from JMZ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Puerto Real, Puerto Rico
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Puerto Real
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Fri -- 12:09 AM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:38 AM AST     1.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:16 AM AST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:37 AM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:03 PM AST     0.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:36 PM AST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:31 PM AST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:32 PM AST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.11.110.80.60.40.30.20.30.30.50.60.60.60.50.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mayaguez, Puerto Rico
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Mayaguez
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:09 AM AST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:41 AM AST     1.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM AST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:21 AM AST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:37 AM AST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:06 PM AST     0.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:35 PM AST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:36 PM AST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:32 PM AST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.51.51.41.20.90.60.40.30.30.50.60.80.80.80.60.40.2-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.20.6

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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